Summary of Soon/Connollys: Challenges of the detection and attribution of global warming | Tom Nelson Pod #153

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In this section, the speaker talks about the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They mention the issues with temperature adjustments, the problem of urban blending, and the difficulties in gathering accurate data. They emphasize the need for improved methods and more reliable adjustments. The speaker also highlights the role of urbanization and solar activity in global warming and calls for further investigation and validation of these factors. They conclude by discussing their own research findings that highlight the uncertainties and the need for open discussion and independent research.

00:00:00 In this section, the guests explain the methods used to detect global warming and attribute it to natural or human causes. They discuss the approach taken by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in their reports, which suggest that the observed global warming since the 1950s is mostly caused by human activities. The IPCC uses temperature proxies, such as tree rings and lake sediments, to estimate historical temperatures since thermometer records only go back to the 19th century. They also use hindcasting, a computer modeling technique that compares past observations with model results using different parameters called radiative forcings. The guests argue that the IPCC's conclusions may be premature and present their own peer-reviewed work that aims to resolve the problems with detection and attribution of global warming.
00:05:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They mention that the analysis conducted by the IPCC in AR6 is not scientifically robust, as it is based on contaminated temperature records and a small subset of known estimates. The land surface temperatures, which are more systematic and scientific, are contaminated with urban heat island effects, causing inaccuracies. They argue that urban heat islands are a form of climate change caused by human factors unrelated to greenhouse gases. Overall, they suggest that the current analysis used to attribute global warming to human activity is flawed and needs further examination.
00:10:00 In this section, the speaker talks about the challenges of using urban weather stations for sampling global climate. They mention that the majority of thermometer stations are located in urban or urbanized areas, which only represent two percent of the global planet. They also note that more than half of the world's population lives in urban areas, meaning that they experience human-caused climate change from urbanization. However, the speaker highlights that this is a local urbanization effect and not representative of the entire planet. They discuss their analysis, which relies on historical climate networks and estimates of urbanization in weather stations. The speaker also mentions the importance of separating urban climate change from global climate change in order to obtain accurate data. They acknowledge the lack of rural data in older periods and the irony that the urban heat island problem is more significant for the earlier part of the record. The section concludes with a discussion about the challenges of correcting non-climatic biases in temperature records caused by factors like station relocation or changes in instruments.
00:15:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming by examining historical temperature records. They highlight their research at Valencia Observatory in Ireland, where they analyzed data from four major events that occurred during the observatory's history. They found that previous methods used by other research groups did not accurately account for these events and relied on statistical homogenization algorithms that adjusted temperature records based on neighboring stations. However, their analysis revealed that these adjustments were not related to the documented events at Valencia Observatory. Their findings emphasize the importance of considering station history metadata and the limitations of current algorithms in accurately detecting and attributing global warming.
00:20:00 In this section, the speakers discuss their concerns about the detection and attribution of global warming. They noticed that the adjustments made to temperature data were inconsistent and did not match up with the documented events. They collaborated with others to compare different versions of the data and found that the adjustments were constantly changing. They reached out to groups in Europe to gather station history metadata and found that only 17 out of the adjustments made by Noah were consistently applied over a 10-year period. This inconsistency in data adjustments highlights a lack of awareness among researchers, as publishing papers based on this inconsistent data would require frequent corrections and republishing.
00:25:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges and issues with the detection and attribution of global warming. They highlight the problem of adjustments made to the data, with less than 20 percent of the adjustments matching up with documented events. They also identify the urban blending problem, where adjustments are calculated based on neighboring urban stations, leading to a blending of urban biases and resulting in homogeneous trends. The speaker mentions that they have been working on developing ratings for stations in China, Japan, and the US, as well as gathering station history metadata for European stations, in order to make more reliable and evidence-based adjustments in the future. They emphasize the need for improved methods to mitigate the problem of urban blending.
00:30:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They explain that they have improved their data set and identified four regions in the Northern Hemisphere that represent 90% of the rural data going back to the 19th century. They also mention challenges in gathering data for the Arctic region and the need for urbanization corrections. They show the average temperature trends for the Northern Hemisphere and highlight the similarities and differences between the urban and rural data. They conclude by stating that the linear trend is around 0.4-0.9 degrees Celsius per century.
00:35:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They highlight the issue of urban warming, with 40 to 50 percent of the warming being attributed to urban areas, whereas the IPCC insists that it is less than 10 percent. The speaker also mentions that looking at rural data from the past century shows a pattern of global warming, followed by global cooling, and then global warming again. They argue that this pattern does not align with CO2 levels and suggests a more natural origin for the warming. The speaker also explains the use of various temperature proxies, such as sea surface temperatures, to gather data on global warming. They discuss the limitations and changes in measurement methods over time, and the need to compare different types of measurements to get a more accurate understanding of temperature changes.
00:40:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They argue that the instrumental data used to identify global warming is problematic and not entirely reliable. They also explain the attribution process used by the IPCC, which involves comparing natural and human-induced climate drivers. The speaker questions the accuracy of the human aspect of climate change, particularly the role of CO2 and other climatic drivers. They then delve into the role of the sun in global warming, emphasizing its dynamic nature and large size. The speaker suggests that the IPCC may have underestimated the influence of the sun and argues that understanding the sun's magnetism is crucial in studying its impact on global warming.
00:45:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the observation and recording of Sunspot activity since Galileo Galilei in 1610. They highlight the roughly 11-year life cycle of Sunspots and the variations in activity levels during different cycles. The speaker also mentions the challenges of measuring and calibrating the sun's output, particularly in integrating the changes across different wavelengths. The speaker emphasizes the need for continued measurements and acknowledges that the problem of calibrating satellite measurements is not yet fully solved.
00:50:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They begin by highlighting the difficulties in calibrating the satellite measurements and the different trends shown by various satellites during different periods. The speaker emphasizes the need for scientific honesty and acknowledges that the calibration problem leads to uncertainties in solar physics. They then discuss the consequences of these calibration issues on estimating total solar irradiance (TSI) variability over centuries, pointing out the different results obtained by different groups. The speaker questions the validity of certain results and emphasizes the need for further investigation and validation.
00:55:00 In this section, the speaker discusses their research on the detection and attribution of global warming. They mention a newly published paper where they compiled 27 estimates of solar irradiance and found that the results were more uncertain than previously thought. They criticize the IPCC for recommending the use of only one estimate in their reports. The speaker emphasizes that their approach is based on science and invites open discussion on the topic. They recommend that the IPCC study their findings and recommend further independent research. The speaker's colleague then discusses a recent paper they co-authored which analyzed rural and urban temperature time series and compared them to solar output. They found that the attribution of climate change to either anthropogenic or natural factors depends on the specific data and analysis chosen.

01:00:00 - 01:40:00

In this YouTube video, the speakers discuss the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They critique the methodologies used by the IPCC, express skepticism towards the scientific consensus approach, and emphasize the importance of independent research and free scientific inquiry. They also discuss the varying opinions within the scientific community on the role of CO2 and the complexities of studying climate change. The speakers highlight the need for open-mindedness, diverse scientific perspectives, and critical thinking in addressing climate change. They express frustration with the politicization of the topic and call for a more objective and evidence-based approach to understanding climate change.

01:00:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the temperature records and the role of solar activity in explaining global warming. They compare the IPCC's human-caused warming model to three solar outputs and find that the solar outputs provide a better explanation for the earlier stage of warming. They also mention the controversy surrounding their findings, as some critics accuse them of being influenced by others. The conclusion drawn is that the IPCC's claims about urbanization bias and the use of solar outputs are incorrect, and that solar activity can explain a significant portion of the climate change since the mid-19th century. Additionally, one of the speakers shares their personal experience of the concern about global cooling in the 1970s, emphasizing the changing scientific perspectives on climate change.
01:05:00 In this section, the speaker expresses skepticism towards the IPCC and their approach to scientific consensus. They argue that the IPCC is more interested in providing answers that cannot be questioned rather than pursuing unanswered questions. They also criticize the IPCC for not considering the impact of urbanization on climate change and claim that the problem has been solved. The speaker believes that the IPCC is driven by a climate agenda and is not interested in scientific information that contradicts their policies. They emphasize the importance of independent and fearless scientific research and question the control that the IPCC has over funding and publication. They conclude by stating the need for a new way of funding science and conducting rigorous peer reviews.
01:10:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They mention that their paper on climate change went through a peer review process with 34 international experts co-authoring it. They criticize the idea of scientific consensus and accuse some groups of following politics rather than true scientific inquiry. They highlight the importance of asking questions and addressing complex issues without fear of being mocked or bullied. The speakers also express their appreciation for the opportunity to discuss these topics and note the importance of everyone contributing to the fight against censorship and propaganda.
01:15:00 In this section, the speaker discusses a back-and-forth exchange between Dr. Gavin Schmidt from NASA and their own work regarding global warming. They mention visiting Dr. Schmidt and having a good discussion with him. The speaker emphasizes that different scientists have different opinions, and it is important to consider various viewpoints in scientific research. They criticize attempts to bully and silence dissenting opinions and express their commitment to open access and sharing data. The speaker concludes by stating their focus on following the science rather than being aligned with any political party.
01:20:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the challenges of detecting and attributing global warming. They highlight the different views on the role of CO2 in climate sensitivity, ranging from it playing a big role to being insignificant. The scientific opinions on this matter vary, and the speakers emphasize that the scientific community is not currently in a position to definitively determine whether global warming since the 19th century is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or a mixture of both. They also criticize the use of thermometer data in studying climate change, suggesting that it may not be sufficient. Additionally, they express their frustration with the oversimplification of the study of volcanoes and its impacts on climate change, highlighting the complexity and unique characteristics of each volcano. Lastly, they mention that their discussion is primarily focused on energy policies and CO2 projections, but they have also worked on other topics such as weather balloon data.
01:25:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the theoretical framework of global climate models and the assumptions that are built into them. They explain how they analyzed weather balloon data to question these assumptions and found fundamental flaws in the models' predictions. They also emphasize the importance of relying on real data in scientific research and highlight the distinction between peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed papers. The speaker argues that the peer review system can sometimes hinder the publication of scientific ideas that go against the established scientific norms.
01:30:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the challenges of detection and attribution of global warming. They emphasize the importance of scientific progress being made by people who disagree and the need for high-quality peer-reviewed papers. They mention that their work aims to avoid attributing solely to human or natural causes, and that different data and methodologies can lead to different conclusions. They also express the need for more talented individuals to join their team and mention the importance of funding without strings attached. Additionally, they mention their work on COVID-19 and how scientific issues can become confusing and dangerous when people take extreme sides without understanding the science.
01:35:00 In this section, the speakers express their frustration with the politicization of climate science and the challenges they face in trying to understand the causes and effects of climate change. They criticize the IPCC for prioritizing policy-making over scientific inquiry and highlight the importance of asking questions and considering different scientific opinions. They emphasize their commitment to science and their desire to understand the complexities of climate change. Despite facing criticism and backlash, they remain dedicated to learning and advancing scientific knowledge in order to address unjustified fears and superstitions. They call for more open-mindedness and acceptance of diverse scientific perspectives in the field.
01:40:00 In this section of the video, the speaker expresses gratitude for the host's support and acknowledges their intelligence and accommodating attitude. The speaker also mentions the importance of the work being done and concludes by thanking the host and expressing appreciation for the support received.