Summary of Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, Malan Baker and Tom Nelson engage in a thoughtful discussion about their differing perspectives on climate change and related issues. They agree on the importance of avoiding fear-mongering, particularly when it comes to communicating climate issues to children. They also share their criticisms of Extinction Rebellion's tactics and the use of round numbers like 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius in climate discussions. The conversation covers various aspects of climate change, including the complexities of the Earth's climate, the uneven distribution of climate data, and the role of uncertainty in climate science. They emphasize the need for clear communication and accurate representation of scientific findings in the media. The speakers also discuss the feasibility of reducing the impact of travel and consumption on climate change and the importance of practical solutions. Overall, the conversation is a nuanced exploration of the complexities of climate change and the importance of understanding the science and politics behind it.

00:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate," Malan Baker and Tom Nelson discuss their differing views on climate change and related issues. They agree that it is not productive to scare children about the future and label that as an evil action. Malan criticizes Extinction Rebellion for deliberately scaring children to recruit them to go to prison for the cause, and Tom seems to agree with this assessment. They also touch upon the gray area of how to communicate the real issues to young people without causing undue fear. The conversation is not a debate but rather an exploration of their reasons for disagreeing on certain aspects of climate change activism.
00:05:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, they discuss the approach of Extinction Rebellion (XR) in raising awareness about climate change. Baker argues that XR's tactics, such as blocking traffic and causing disruptions, are not effective in persuading people about climate change and can even create a backlash. He acknowledges that XR's goal was not necessarily to persuade people but to create conflict and bring down the government. Nelson agrees that XR's tactics are counterproductive from a campaign strategy perspective. They also agree on the debate surrounding the 1.5°C and 2.0°C targets, with Baker stating that the scientific community does not believe in a cliff edge at those exact temperatures. Instead, the targets were chosen politically for their symbolic value.
00:10:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, they discuss the use of round numbers, such as 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius, in climate discussions and how it can lead to unintended consequences, like creating a sense of imminent catastrophe. They agree that these numbers were not based on any scientific law but were used for campaigning purposes. They also touch upon the distinction between the science of climate and the politics of climate action, noting that belief in human-caused climate change should not be tied to party politics.
00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate," the speaker discusses his approach to addressing climate change skepticism on his YouTube channel. He started by reviewing the best arguments against climate change to attract a mixed audience, including skeptics. However, he made it a point to approach each topic with an open mind and look at the evidence. He found that the mainstream climate change research was robust, and the criticisms against it were often poor or based on misrepresentations. As a result, he became more suspicious of new arguments coming from the same stable. The speaker emphasized his fascination with what's true and his reluctance to express opinions without sufficient evidence. He also mentioned his coverage of controversial topics such as lockdown skepticism and the lab leak theory, which he believed were viable but not proven. Overall, the speaker's approach to climate change issues was to examine each critique piece by piece and evaluate the evidence behind them.
00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217," Tom Nelson expresses his skepticism towards certain claims made by Mallen Baker regarding climate change. Baker had previously stated that he has not seen compelling evidence for human-caused climate change and suggested that Nelson provide a "golden pitch" to change his perspective. However, Nelson points out that he has invited climate scientists from various perspectives to appear on his podcast, but they have declined the invitation. Nelson also clarifies that he does not view himself as being on one side or the other, but rather recognizes the nuances on both sides. He acknowledges that there are various beliefs within the climate skeptic community, from those who deny warming entirely to those who believe it is happening but not as a major problem. Nelson also corrects Baker's misinterpretation of his documentary, "Climate Hustle," and explains that he never claimed the Earth has not warmed since 1850 or 1975. Instead, he acknowledges that there have been periods of warming and cooling throughout history. The misunderstanding arose from Nelson's debunking of graphs presented by Baker that gave an inaccurate impression of temperature trends. Nelson also clarifies that he never claimed that all warming is due to urban heat island effects, but rather that some of it may be contributing to the observed warming.
00:25:00 In this section of the podcast, Tom Nelson and Mallen Baker engage in a discussion about climate change, with Nelson expressing his belief that the Earth's climate is complex and that no one knows for certain what caused past warming periods or the current warming trend. He also expresses skepticism about the idea that CO2 is the primary cause of climate change and that warming will lead to negative consequences for humans. Nelson argues that the correlation between CO2 levels and temperature increases is not clear and that there is no evidence to support the idea that CO2 is the climate control knob. He also criticizes the use of language that implies CO2 is the sole factor in climate change, stating that this is not the position of climate scientists. Nelson cites a paper by Gavin Schmidt as an example of where the phrase "CO2 being the control knob of the climate" was used as an analogy, but acknowledges that the phrase has taken on a life of its own.
00:30:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast (Tom Nelson Pod #217), the speakers agree that human-added CO2 is pushing the carbon cycle out of balance but disagree on the implications of this. They acknowledge that CO2 levels have fluctuated significantly throughout Earth's history and that life has adapted to various conditions. However, they argue that the current concern is not about finding the ideal CO2 level for the planet but rather about the potential consequences of rapid change within a human lifetime. The speakers also discuss the historical context of climate change concerns, noting that in the 1970s, there were fears of cooling, and the development of climate science was driven by the recognition of potential vulnerabilities to climate change. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of understanding the complexities of climate and the potential consequences of change, rather than oversimplifying the issue as "warm is bad, cold is good."
00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217", the speakers discuss the uneven distribution of climate data and the implications of this for understanding climate change. Baker argues that the focus on warming trends in the US, where most data is available, leads to a skewed perspective on the global climate crisis. Nelson responds by acknowledging that climate models predict earlier signs of climate change in certain regions, such as Asia and Southern Europe, and not in North America. The speakers agree that a more nuanced and data-driven approach to discussing climate change is necessary, rather than fixating on the idea of a global crisis in the present or the presence of catastrophic events in certain places.
00:40:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, Baker challenges the notion that the world is experiencing a climate crisis, specifically pointing to Antarctica not warming faster than the rest of the world and the media's alarmist headlines. He argues that the models may be incorrect and that the increase in CO2 emissions has not resulted in accelerated warming. Nelson agrees with Baker that the media often exaggerates the issue, but emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the scientific literature and sensational headlines. Baker also mentions instances where climate activists or scientists have made extreme statements, but acknowledges that these do not represent the consensus view. The conversation highlights the need for clear communication and accurate representation of scientific findings in the media.
00:45:00 In this section of the podcast, climate scientists Mallen Baker and Tom Nelson discuss the concept of runaway climate change and the role of uncertainty in climate science. Baker explains that while some climate scientists briefly entertained the idea of runaway climate change in the past, the mainstream climate science community has since dismissed it as unlikely due to the lack of necessary factors. Nelson acknowledges that there is a spectrum of beliefs within the climate science community, with some beliefs being more speculative than others. He expresses concern about the complacency some people exhibit in response to uncertainty, using the example of the medieval warm period and the idea that we should do nothing if we don't fully understand it. Nelson also addresses the issue of scare stories in the media, specifically mentioning the idea of eating bugs and living in 15-minute cities as solutions to prevent bad weather. He acknowledges that there are people who feel guilty about their carbon footprint but clarifies that he is not advocating for these specific solutions. Instead, he believes that the focus should be on understanding the complexities of the climate system and taking appropriate action based on that knowledge.
00:50:00 In this section of the podcast, Mallen Baker and Tom Nelson discuss the misrepresentation of climate initiatives and the fear-mongering that often accompanies them. Baker explains how a conversation about efficient protein production through insects was blown out of proportion into a false narrative about being forced to eat bugs. Nelson then asks if there are indeed plans to restrict personal freedoms in the name of climate change, acknowledging that there are people with such beliefs but emphasizing the importance of nuanced discussions and focusing on realistic solutions. The conversation then shifts to the debate over how quickly society should move towards net-zero emissions while maintaining economic and societal values. The frustration expressed is over the media's tendency to jump from climate change to specific issues like meat consumption and flying without considering the complexities of the issue.
00:55:00 In this section of the podcast, Mallen Baker and Tom Nelson discuss the feasibility of reducing or eliminating the impact of travel and consumption on climate change. Baker values the ability to travel and broaden one's perspective, while acknowledging the difficulty of reducing its environmental impact. Nelson mentions the C40 Cities document, which proposes extreme consumption interventions such as zero meat and dairy consumption, and questions its reliability and feasibility. Both agree that politicians are hesitant to implement unpopular solutions, as they don't want to take responsibility for difficult decisions and face immediate backlash. They also criticize the media, including the BBC, for focusing on extreme solutions rather than practical ones. Overall, they argue that politicians are more likely to make grand promises than take action on climate change.

01:00:00 - 02:00:00

In the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, the speakers discuss the political polarization surrounding climate change in America and its impact on effective action. Mallen Baker argues that the gridlock in the American political system allows for extremes without consequences, enabling radical proposals without delivery. Tom Nelson, a centrist, acknowledges the benefits of capitalism but emphasizes the need for pragmatic approaches to climate change and criticizes the lack of consequences for extreme policies. They also discuss the importance of realistic targets and the repercussions of overreach, using the European agricultural policy backlash as an example. Mallen Baker shares his approach to evaluating climate documentaries with an open mind, seeking to assess their persuasiveness and the validity of their claims. In a heated debate, they engage in a discussion about the accuracy and representation of climate science in a movie produced by Baker's group. Tom Nelson accuses the movie of making "truly garbage statements" about the science and insists on presenting all available data and standing up to scrutiny. They debate the importance of focusing on current evidence and the potential differences in climate change impacts across the globe. The speakers also discuss their differing views on renewable energy and nuclear power, as well as the role of government in setting energy policy. They acknowledge the importance of providing energy solutions that meet the needs of developing countries and agree to disagree on some policy choices. The conversation touches upon the poor quality of political decision-making regarding climate policy and the shifting public perception towards climate change and the Net Zero goal. They discuss the increasing politicization of climate change in America and its impact on public opinion, with Baker predicting that people's identities will continue to shape their beliefs rather than scientific evidence.

01:00:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, they discuss the political polarization, particularly in America, and its impact on radical action for climate change. Baker argues that the American political system, with its gridlock, allows for extremes on both sides without any real consequences, enabling politicians to feed their bases with radical proposals without having to deliver on them. Nelson, a centrist, acknowledges the benefits of capitalism but also recognizes the need for pragmatic approaches to climate change. He criticizes the American system for its lack of consequences for extreme policies and its downward spiral towards ideological extremes. They also touch upon the recent European agricultural policy backlash as an example of the importance of realistic targets and the repercussions of overreach.
01:05:00 In this section of the podcast, Mallen Baker discusses his approach to evaluating the documentary "Climate" with an open mind, acknowledging his background in helping businesses meet their climate commitments. He explains that he went into the documentary seeking to assess its persuasiveness and the validity of its claims, rather than with preconceived notions about agreement or disagreement. Baker had previously found content from some of the documentary's contributors unpersuasive but was open to the possibility that this piece could surpass his expectations. He planned to evaluate each claim on its merit, identifying any hidden suppositions or straw men, and only then assess the factualness of the argument.
01:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217," Tom Nelson and Mallen Baker engage in a heated debate about the accuracy and representation of climate science in a movie produced by Baker's group. Baker argues that the movie presents the truth as they see it, while Nelson accuses it of making "truly garbage statements" about the science. Nelson insists that the movie should present all available data and stand up to scrutiny, as opposed to selectively presenting truncated bits to support a pre-existing position. He criticizes the practice of repeating partial representations of evidence and dismissing evidence that doesn't support a particular viewpoint. Nelson challenges Baker to provide data from long-running temperature records outside of North America that show alarming climate trends, and Baker admits that he is not aware of such records. Nelson accuses Baker of engaging in "garbage science" by dismissing evidence that doesn't agree with his position and expecting to see certain trends in specific locations based on models that don't always hold true. The debate highlights the importance of presenting accurate and comprehensive data in climate science discussions.
01:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217," the speakers discuss the importance of focusing on current evidence rather than debating the historical context of climate data. They argue that it is not productive to dismiss information based on its inability to be traced back to specific historical benchmarks. The conversation then shifts to criticisms of misrepresented data and manipulation in climate discussions. The speakers also debate the accuracy of statements made about climate change causing heat waves in India to be 100 times more likely and the comparison of CO2 emissions to steroids. The speakers express a need for clear context when quoting each other and question the validity of climate models predicting alarming warming in Africa but not in Central England or the US. The speakers acknowledge that climate change affects different regions differently due to complex climate systems.
01:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217," the speakers discuss the complexities of climate change and the potential differences in its impacts across the globe. Baker argues that the Earth receives different amounts of solar insulation, leading to varying consequences. He also questions the accuracy of climate models and the evidence for warming trends, particularly in certain regions like Africa. Nelson criticizes the focus on future impacts and the lack of attention to current changes, and they discuss the use of the word "admit" in relation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its reports. Overall, the speakers engage in a nuanced and detailed conversation about the complexities of climate science and the challenges of communicating its implications.
01:25:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast episode, Tom Nelson and Mallen Baker discuss a misunderstanding regarding Baker's earlier statement about the lack of warming. Baker clarifies that he did not intend to imply there was no warming, but rather that the warming trend was not significant in the Central England record he had referenced. Nelson acknowledges his mistake in interpreting Baker's statement and accepts his explanation. They continue their conversation, discussing the impact of climate change and the attribution of specific weather events to human causation. Baker expresses skepticism towards the Climate Attribution Unit's methodology and certainty in their pronouncements, preferring a more cautious approach. They also touch upon the recent heatwave in Asia and its effects on people in poverty-stricken areas.
01:30:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, they discuss the impact of climate change on people living in areas without access to air conditioning and the importance of reliable energy sources for adaptation. Baker argues that the focus should be on adapting to potential heat waves and ensuring a reliable power supply, rather than using it as evidence of climate change. Nelson agrees that reducing CO2 production is necessary but sees the energy transition as an engineering problem requiring a mix of reliable energy sources, including nuclear, during the transition period. They also acknowledge the importance of providing energy solutions that meet the needs of developing countries. The disagreement lies in the idealistic goal of achieving 100% renewable energy, which they both believe is difficult, if not impossible, to achieve without considering the practicalities and requirements of various countries.
01:35:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, the speakers discuss their differing views on renewable energy and nuclear power, as well as the role of government in setting energy policy. Baker expresses his skepticism towards the idea of relying solely on renewable energy sources and believes that nuclear power is a more reliable long-term solution. Nelson, on the other hand, acknowledges the need for reliable base load energy but expresses concerns about the consequences of fossil fuels and the need to transition away from them. They also touch upon the topic of government-imposed deadlines for banning certain technologies, using the example of the ban on chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as a successful policy vehicle for forcing innovation. The speakers agree to disagree on some policy choices but remain open to understanding each other's perspectives.
01:40:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, they discuss the poor quality of political decision-making regarding climate policy. Baker expresses his concern over ambitious targets set by governments without clear plans on how to achieve them, citing the UK's ban on petrol engines as an example. He believes that opposition is necessary to hold politicians accountable for their actions and to challenge flawed assumptions. Baker also mentions the Global Warming Policy Foundation's efforts to challenge the climate change committee's math and numbers, but regrets that their credibility was not widely recognized. Baker argues that a significant portion of the population does not believe human activity is the main cause of climate change, with only 34% of Americans in a recent Monmouth poll agreeing. He believes there is a growing awakening where people are no longer blindly trusting experts and the media.
01:45:00 In this section of the podcast, Mallen Baker and Tom Nelson discuss the shifting public perception towards climate change and the Net Zero goal. Baker expresses his belief that the general public is not fully on board with Net Zero, despite the commitment of bureaucrats. He points to the influence of certain podcasters and media personalities who question climate change experts and the alarmism surrounding the issue. Nelson agrees, adding that people tend to focus on immediate concerns rather than abstract, future threats. He also mentions the polarization of the issue in America, with figures like Trump taking firm stances against it. Overall, both speakers suggest that the public's stance on climate change is not as solidly in favor of Net Zero as some might assume.
01:50:00 In this section of the podcast, speakers Mallen Baker and Tom Nelson discuss the increasing politicization of climate change in America and its impact on public opinion. According to Baker, the issue was not a significant partisan divide during the George H.W. Bush era, but became one after Al Gore brought it to the forefront. With Trump's presidency, the divide has become more pronounced, with Democrats and Republicans holding opposing views. Baker predicts that as time goes on, people's identities will continue to shape their beliefs about climate change, rather than scientific evidence. He also notes that the North-South divide may widen due to differing resources and support for addressing the issue.
01:55:00 In this section of the "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate" podcast, the speakers discuss the potential impact of natural global cooling and the role humans can play in maintaining a stable temperature. Baker expresses skepticism about predicting future population attitudes towards climate issues and shares his perspective that a period of cooling is unlikely. He also mentions the possibility of geoengineering as a potential solution, but emphasizes the importance of understanding the causes and effects of any climate change before taking action. The speakers also touch upon the challenges of adapting to climate change and the potential consequences of stabilizing the temperature.

02:00:00 - 02:20:00

In the two-hour-long YouTube video "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217," Baker and Nelson engage in a nuanced discussion on climate science, focusing on the uncertainty surrounding tipping points, the impact of CO2 on agriculture, and the importance of considering both positive and negative consequences of climate change when framing public policy. Baker expresses skepticism about the certainty of tipping points and the need to focus on the present, while Nelson emphasizes the unprecedented rate of current climate change and its potential consequences. They also debate the impact of CO2 on crop yields, with Baker arguing that increased CO2 levels lead to higher yields, and Nelson attributing the increase mainly to agricultural expansion and improvements in techniques. The speakers acknowledge the potential risks associated with climate change, particularly the impact on food production, and the importance of understanding the underlying factors driving the increase in crop yields. They also discuss the importance of considering both the positive and negative aspects of climate change when framing public policy, and express their satisfaction with the engaging and nuanced nature of their conversation.

02:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217," Baker and Nelson discuss the uncertainty surrounding tipping points in climate science and the rapidity of current climate change. Baker expresses skepticism about the certainty of tipping points and argues that focusing too much on the past may lead to complacency. He questions the need to know exactly how fast the climate has changed in the past to take action in the present. Nelson counters that the current rate of change is unprecedented and that human societies have historically been impacted by climate variability. The conversation revolves around the importance of acknowledging the uncertainty and potential consequences of climate change, and the need for rational responses to mitigate risks.
02:05:00 In this section of the podcast, Baker and Nelson discuss the impact of CO2 on crop yields. Baker argues that the Earth has been "Greening" due to increased CO2 levels, which acts as plant food, leading to higher yields. Nelson agrees that crop yields have been increasing but attributes it mainly to the expansion of agricultural land and improvements in agricultural techniques. However, Nelson expresses concern about the potential consequences of global warming on crops and the risk of multiple breadbasket regions being affected at once, which could lead to food shortages. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying factors driving the increase in crop yields and the potential risks associated with climate change.
02:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217", the speakers discuss the impact of CO2 on agriculture and arable land. Baker argues that there is no evidence that CO2 causes increased destabilization of the climate and that crop yields per unit area are increasing. He also believes that there is still a significant amount of arable land that is not being used. Nelson acknowledges this but emphasizes that if all golf courses and other unused land were converted to farms, there would be enough food to feed the population. However, he also points out that there is a trade-off point where the benefits of CO2 enrichment for plant growth are offset by increasing temperatures. The speakers agree that global warming is a reality, but the issue is the potential for extreme weather events that can devastate crop production in certain areas, particularly those that are already facing challenging climate conditions. Baker argues that people can adapt to these changes, but Nelson cautions against the potential for mass migrations and the unequal distribution of the impacts of climate change.
02:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217," the speakers discuss the importance of considering both the positive and negative consequences of climate change when framing public policy. They express concern over the focus on only the negative aspects, such as the potential for warmer temperatures to negatively impact outdoor activities like hockey, while ignoring potential benefits like increased opportunities for golfing, construction, and farming. The speakers argue that this narrow focus is driven by campaign positions aimed at motivating decision-makers to take action to mitigate climate change. They agree that there is a need to address both the good and the bad aspects of climate change and that it is important for individuals to be responsible for the accuracy and potential impact of their statements.
02:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Mallen Baker/Tom Nelson: 2+ hours of agreement and disagreement on climate | Tom Nelson Pod #217," both participants express their satisfaction with the nuanced and engaging discussion they had on climate issues. They acknowledge that they have agreed on some points and disagreed on others, but overall, they believe the conversation was healthy and different from an echo chamber or artificial debate. The speakers express their hope that others will find the discussion valuable as well and suggest the possibility of continuing the conversation in the future.