Summary of Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226

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In the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós presents his theories on the relationship between solar activity and climate change. He challenges the popular belief that carbon dioxide is the primary control knob of Earth's climate and instead emphasizes the sun's energy output as a significant factor. Vinós argues that solar activity, as indicated by sunspots and the 11-year solar cycle, plays a role in climate change, with extended periods of low solar activity, called Grand Solar Minima, leading to significant climate cooling. He also discusses the importance of understanding the sun's role in climate history, as it could have significant implications for future climate predictions. Vinós criticizes the IPCC and NASA for dismissing the sun's influence on climate change and emphasizes the need for further investigation into the sun's effects on cloud formation, ocean currents, and other climate processes. He also proposes that the sun's impact on climate is not temporary and that there is evidence of long-term climate changes caused by solar activity.

00:00:00 In this section of the podcast, host Tom Nelson interviews Javier Vinós, author of the upcoming book "Solving the Climate Puzzle." Vinós challenges the popular belief that carbon dioxide is the primary control knob of Earth's climate, stating instead that the sun's energy output plays a significant role. The sun is a variable star, and its activity, as indicated by sunspots, follows an 11-year solar cycle. However, there are longer periods of low and high solar activity known as Grand Solar Minima and Maxima. The sun provides 99.9% of the Earth's climate system's energy, and some scientists argue that its variations cause climate change. Despite this, the IPCC and NASA maintain that solar activity has little effect on climate due to the small changes in solar energy and the lack of correlation between solar activity and temperature since the 1990s. Vinós argues that the sun's influence should not be dismissed, as it could still cause significant climate changes. To understand the sun's role in climate history, scientists look to the past 11,000 years, specifically the Holocene climate period. Using various climate proxies, such as organic remains and ice cores, scientists have reconstructed the Earth's temperature history. The findings suggest a long period of warming called the Climate Optimum followed by a prolonged cooling period called the Neoglacial. Glacier studies also support this temperature reconstruction, as they indicate that glaciers grew during the cooling periods. Vinós emphasizes that understanding the sun's role in climate change is crucial, as it could have significant implications for future climate predictions.
00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós discusses the relationship between the sun's activity and climate, focusing on the past and the impact of solar activity on climate events. He explains that paleoclimatologists have identified four significant climate events, which they call the Braid Cycle, and that the sun's activity can be recorded through the action of cosmic rays. The carbon 14 produced by cosmic rays is used in photosynthesis, and the amount of carbon 14 in tree growth rings can be used to determine the age of organic remains. However, the production of carbon 14 is not constant due to changes in the sun's magnetic field, leading to deviations in the calibration curve. Vinós explains that extended periods of low solar activity, called Grand Solar Minima, can last up to 150 years and result in significant climate cooling. He mentions that there have been four severe Grand Solar Minima in the past 2800 years, and each of these events coincides with a major climate event identified in the graph. These climate events had a significant impact on human populations, with periods of growth and building during times of high solar activity and decreased population and building during times of low solar activity.
00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós discusses the relationship between the sun and climate based on archaeological evidence and solar activity data. He explains that past climate changes, particularly those causing significant population declines, have been linked to periods of low solar activity, specifically Grand solar minima. The study of past climate indicates that solar activity significantly impacts the climate, and the sun's influence cannot be ignored. Despite the IPCC and NASA's emphasis on greenhouse gases as the primary cause of climate change, Vinós argues that solar activity plays a crucial role. He points out that solar activity cannot rise above the 20th-century maximum, meaning that warming will not accelerate or become dangerous. Additionally, Vinós presents a model predicting similar solar activity levels in the 21st century as those seen in the 20th century. Vinós criticizes the IPCC's assessment in their Fifth Assessment Report, which attributes no contribution to warming from the sun due to the minimal energy changes. He argues that this is an oversimplification, as the sun's effects on climate cannot be fully explained by energy changes alone. He highlights several unexplained phenomena, such as the role of solar activity in cloud formation and ocean currents, which require further investigation.
00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós discusses the relationship between solar activity and climate, specifically the warming observed at the Earth's surface and the cooling in the stratosphere. He explains that the surface is warming four times more than expected from a 0.1% increase in solar energy, and that this warming is not evenly distributed, with some areas experiencing more than 1° Celsius of warming while others cool by half a degree. The response in the stratosphere is a mirror image of the response at the surface, which challenges the assumption that human emissions are the primary cause of observed climate changes. Vinós also discusses the solar cycle's effect on the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean and the trade winds, and shares his findings from an analysis of solar activity data and the oceanic Nino index, which suggests an analogy response to solar activity. He concludes that there is a 99.3% chance that the observed Lina conditions during solar cycle gains are due to the sun.
00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship," Javier Vinós discusses the relationship between solar activity and El Niño frequencies, atmospheric circulation, and hurricanes. He mentions that despite evidence suggesting the sun's control over El Niño phenomena, most scientists are unaware or unwilling to acknowledge this connection. Vinós explains that solar activity affects atmospheric circulation, which in turn may significantly impact hurricane activity. He presents a graph showing the solar activity in red and the polar vortex strength in purple, with wind speed data in blue. During periods of low solar activity, the polar vortex tends to be weaker, which can lead to colder winters, especially in the northern hemisphere. This phenomenon, which cannot be explained by CO2 levels, has been observed since the late 1990s. Additionally, the Earth's rotation speed has been found to increase twice a year when winter arrives in each hemisphere, a finding that is not widely known among climatologists.
00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós discusses the relationship between solar activity and the Earth's rotation. He explains that when solar activity is low, the Earth's rotation speeds up, and each revolution is shortened. Conversely, when solar activity is high, the rotation hardly accelerates at all. Vinós asserts that this effect on the Earth's rotation has been known for 60 years but no explanation for its cause has been given. He suggests that changes in the angular momentum of the atmosphere may be responsible, but the small changes in energy deposited at the Earth's surface by the sun are not sufficient to explain these effects. Vinós criticizes the IPCC for ignoring the evidence of the sun's impact on climate and the lack of representation of these phenomena in climate models. He also mentions that the effects of solar activity on climate are not temporary and that there is evidence of long-term climate changes caused by solar activity.
00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós discusses three theories explaining the sun's effect on climate. The first theory is based on the direct effect of solar radiation on climate, which is linear and proportional to the cause. Scientists like Dr. Sun and 35 others have proposed this theory, and their temperature reconstruction shows a larger effect of the sun on climate than the IPCC's accepted reconstruction. The second theory suggests that cosmic rays, regulated by the sun's magnetic field, change the climate indirectly through their effect on cloud formation. This theory, proposed by Dr. Sensar, is based on the fact that cosmic rays create ions in the atmosphere that act as cloud seeds. While some experiments have confirmed part of the theory, it is not yet clear whether the effect is significant enough. The third theory, proposed by Vinós himself, suggests that the sun is not indispensable to natural climate change and that heat transport is a crucial but poorly understood climate process. Heat transport is important for the climate as it transports moisture and clouds, but scientists lack a satisfactory theory to describe it and cannot adequately measure it. Despite this lack of knowledge, most scientists believe that variations in heat transport have not contributed to recent climate change because heat transport does not change the amount of heat in the system and does not cause global climate change, only regional changes. However, Vinós argues that this is not true, as 75% of the Earth's greenhouse effect is due to water vapor and water clouds, whose distribution by latitude is crucial for understanding climate change.
00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós discusses the role of heat transport in climate change. He explains that the uneven distribution of water in the tropical and polar atmospheres results in varying greenhouse effects and heat transport capabilities. Vinós argues that the total amount of heat transported is not constant, and changes in heat transport can lead to climate change. He criticizes the theoretical compensation for these changes, which has not been proven, and asserts that reality shows that both atmospheric and oceanic heat transport have increased in recent decades, leading to the Arctic's warming temperatures. Vinós suggests that the sun, solar activity, and solar wind play a significant role in heat transport and climate change, as evidenced by historical data and studies. He also mentions the correlation between solar activity and Greenland's temperature over the past 4,000 years.
00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós discusses the relationship between solar activity and climate, specifically focusing on planetary waves and their impact on the polar vortex. He explains that phenomena such as heat waves and floods are driven by the energy moved by these planetary waves, and under certain conditions, they can reach the stratosphere and weaken the polar vortex. Although a scientist suggested this possibility 50 years ago, no one investigated it until a 2011 study proved that planetary waves in the northern hemisphere respond to the solar cycle. The study showed that during periods of low solar activity, the polar vortex weakens, leading to more frequent cold winters in the northern hemisphere. Vinós also explains that this mechanism, which he calls the "winter gatekeeper," can explain the change in global climate by regulating the amount of heat that enters the Arctic in winter. When solar activity is high, the solar winds are strengthened, preventing planetary waves from entering the stratosphere and allowing the vortex to remain strong, reducing heat transport to the Arctic and causing temperatures to drop. Conversely, during periods of low solar activity, the solar winds subside, allowing planetary waves to enter the stratosphere and weaken the vortex, increasing heat transport to the Arctic and causing it to warm. This theory, which is not a solar theory but rather an explanation of the sun's effect on climate variations, has the ability to explain the ice age cycle of the last 34 million years and the growth and shrinkage of ice sheets in glaciations and interglacials.
00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship," Javier Vinós explains that solar energy changes provide a signal for climate change but the actual energy to change the climate comes from planetary waves carrying large amounts of energy. He also discusses the nonlinear relationship between solar activity and climate, which cannot be expected to have a linear correlation. This theory explains recent warming in the Arctic and increased cold winters in the northern hemisphere, as well as changes in the Earth's rotation. The theory proposes that natural climate change occurs through a mechanism that alters the transport of heat from the equator towards the poles, affecting the energy content of the planet. During periods of low solar activity, such as grand solar minimums, the Earth can lose significant heat through the Arctic, leading to cooling effects that can last for decades or even centuries.
00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship," Vinós discusses his theory on the sun's role in climate change and the impact of solar activity on the Earth's temperature. He explains that during periods of low solar activity, more energy is lost from the planet, leading to cooling, primarily in the Northern Hemisphere. Prolonged cooling can affect the entire planet and cause major climate changes. Vinós also shares that solar activity is projected to be relatively high for about 50 or 60 years during the 21st century. He further states that according to his theory, CO2 levels, even if they reach 800 parts per million, would not have a significant effect on the Earth's temperature due to the planet's protective greenhouse effect, primarily regulated by water vapor. Vinós emphasizes that climate is a complex question and that multiple factors, including solar activity, cosmic rays, and CO2, need to be studied to determine their individual impacts. He developed the theory on his own but collaborates with Andy to disseminate it. Prior to the 1960s, there were various theories about climate change causes, but since then, climate models have dominated the discussion.
00:55:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós discusses his theory on climate change, which is based on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and the transport of heat to the poles. He explains that all current theories on climate change are based on the Earth's energy imbalance, with competing explanations being the CO2 hypothesis, solar change theories, and cloud theories. Vinós' theory, however, comes from a different principle, as it focuses on the role of water vapor and the transport of heat to the poles. He emphasizes the importance of the polar vortex in his theory and mentions that the Arctic polar vortex is much weaker than the Antarctic Vortex, making the Northern Hemisphere more susceptible to climate change. Vinós also mentions that better measurements of heat loss from the Arctic are needed to support his hypothesis fully. Regarding the climate sensitivity to double CO2, Vinós believes it is less than one degree Centigrade.

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In the YouTube video "Javier Vinós: The Sun and Climate: An Intimate Relationship | Tom Nelson Pod #226," Javier Vinós challenges the common belief that CO2 levels significantly contribute to climate change. He points to historical data showing a decrease in CO2 levels from around 700 parts per million (PPM) to about 350 PPM during a warming period. Vinós asserts that CO2 has a minimal impact on climate and that doubling CO2 levels would not lead to catastrophic consequences. He encourages those interested in his hypothesis to examine the evidence carefully, with clear language and summaries at the beginning and end of each study.