Summary of Kelvin Kemm: South African electricity and climate realism | Tom Nelson Pod #137

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Kelvin Kemm, a nuclear physicist from South Africa, discusses the power situation and electricity grid in the country. He attributes the recent problems with power outages to the government's pressure to rely on renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which he says are highly variable and create instability in the grid. Kemm also criticizes the idea of individuals and businesses relying on the National Grid when their solar power runs out, arguing that it is like free insurance. He warns against outside countries promoting wind and solar energy in South Africa, as he believes it may be more about political appearances and benefiting their own countries. Kemm emphasizes the need for a more realistic and balanced approach to addressing the power situation, advocating for nuclear power as a safe, reliable, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly alternative.

00:00:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm, a nuclear physicist from South Africa, discusses the power situation and electricity grid in the country. He explains that South Africa has a good electrical system, but in recent years, they have experienced problems with power outages, known as load shedding. Kemm attributes this to the government's indecision and pressure to rely on renewable energy sources like wind and solar. He mentions that South Africa does not have the luxury of importing electricity from neighboring countries like Germany or the UK, which can easily alleviate power shortages. Overall, Kemm emphasizes the need for a more realistic and balanced approach to addressing the power situation in South Africa.
00:05:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the pressure to rely on wind and solar energy in South Africa and the problems it poses. He explains that solar and wind energy are highly variable, with solar only producing energy during the day and wind only when it blows. This variability creates instability in the electricity grid. Kemm also highlights the issue of individuals and businesses using their own solar energy during the day and relying on the National Grid when their solar power runs out. He argues that this reliance on the grid is akin to free insurance and questions why the utilities should be responsible for supplying power when there is a week of rain, for example. Furthermore, Kemm mentions that there is pressure from outside countries, such as Germany, to promote wind and solar energy in South Africa, but he advises caution, as much of the funding offered is in the form of loans and comes with conditions to buy their wind systems. He suggests that these decisions may be more about political appearances and benefiting their own countries rather than providing genuine assistance.
00:10:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the issues surrounding South Africa's coal exports and the impact it has on their electricity system. He explains that while Europe is moving away from coal, they are still buying South Africa's coal, causing concern about their own coal supply. Kemm also mentions that there has been load shedding in recent years, which is a new phenomenon for South Africa. He emphasizes the importance of a stable electricity system for economic growth and criticizes governments' interference in dictating energy sources. Kemm believes that South Africa should continue using coal for their electricity needs, as it currently accounts for 80% of their electricity generation, and notes that their CO2 emissions are only one percent of the world's total. He argues against forcing wind and solar power into the national energy supply due to their fluctuating nature, and suggests exploring clever alternatives for their use instead.
00:15:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the importance of prioritizing the current generation's needs instead of just focusing on future generations. He mentions that there has been a positive attitude from the government towards nuclear power in South Africa, with plans to add 2,500 megawatts of nuclear power. Kemm also believes that the world is going through a natural transition from coal to nuclear power, similar to how the world transitioned from horse-drawn carriages to motor cars in the early 1900s. He emphasizes that nuclear power is safe, reliable, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly, producing minimal waste and no CO2 emissions. Kemm argues that nuclear power should be promoted as a means to reduce CO2 output and ensure a sustainable energy future.
00:20:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the management of nuclear waste in South Africa and dispels common misconceptions about its safety. He highlights that South Africa has a well-established nuclear waste repository that has been running smoothly for 38 years. Kemm emphasizes the careful handling and disposal of nuclear waste, thereby dismissing fears surrounding it. However, he acknowledges the negative perception of nuclear technology due to past incidents like the bombings during the Second World War. Kemm also mentions the importance of countering disinformation and talks about the presence of enthusiastic young people entering the nuclear industry in South Africa. He believes that there will be a rapid acceleration in favor of nuclear power in the coming years. Kemm mentions his connections with other proponents of nuclear power, such as Cal Abel and Wade Allison. He states that they are making headway in South Africa, with trade unions and political parties expressing pro-nuclear sentiments. Although some people still bring up Fukushima as a concern, Kemm believes that the general public in South Africa is more sensible about nuclear power compared to other countries.
00:25:00 In this section, the speaker discusses how the Fukushima disaster was not actually a nuclear disaster, but rather a conventional disaster. He mentions that zero people died or were injured from nuclear radiation and no private property was affected. The speaker recounts how he wrote an article about this and received both support and criticism. He also mentions the recent issue of releasing radioactive water into the sea, expressing his willingness to drink it or swim in it to prove its safety. He then talks about the extreme safety measures in modern nuclear designs, which have led to higher costs in building reactors. The speaker also briefly mentions the anti-nuclear sentiment in the past and the demands for increased safety.
00:30:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the lack of security and safety measures around wind turbines compared to nuclear installations. He highlights the progress in solar panels and wind turbines but points out that there have also been significant advancements in nuclear reactors. He explains that newer nuclear reactors have passive safety features to prevent accidents like Chernobyl or Fukushima, where cooling systems failed. Kemm mentions that South Africa was the first country to design a commercial small modular reactor, emphasizing the potential for small modular reactors to offer increased safety in nuclear energy.
00:35:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the design and safety features of small modular reactors. He emphasizes the importance of prioritizing safety from the beginning of the design process and says that engineers are now more aware of the need for safe and efficient machines. Kemm explains that the small modular reactors they have designed have passive safety measures and can withstand extreme temperatures without human intervention. He also mentions the HTML 100 reactor, which they hope to build in South Africa with international finance. Kemm points out that the interior of South Africa has water supply challenges, making smaller reactors a potential solution. Additionally, he discusses the logistics of electricity transportation, especially in a country like South Africa with coal mines far from major cities, highlighting the need for power stations that can be situated on the coastline for efficient cooling.
00:40:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the challenges of supplying electricity to areas in South Africa that are far from water sources. To address this issue, he suggests using small modular reactors that do not require water cooling and instead use helium gas. He also highlights the potential benefits of building smaller reactors closer to consumers, which would eliminate the need for a national grid. Kemm also mentions the potential for using small modular reactors to supply power to large industrial areas, such as gold mines in South Africa, where it is crucial to have a reliable source of electricity.
00:45:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the idea of designing a nuclear power park with reactors to provide electricity. He explains that nuclear power is actually the cheapest source of electricity in South Africa and compares it to buying a house instead of renting, where the capital is paid off over time. He also addresses concerns about the cost of decommissioning nuclear plants, stating that competent accountants and economists have already worked out the numbers and it is affordable. Kemm mentions that nuclear power plants have a lifespan of around 40 years, but there is no mention of decommissioning wind turbines.
00:50:00 In this section, Kelvin Kemm discusses the decommissioning of nuclear power plants and addresses concerns about safety. He explains that the lifetime of a reactor is typically set at around 40 years, but this doesn't mean it will fall apart at exactly 40 years. Kemm points out that decommissioning has been successfully carried out in various places without any issues. He also highlights that nuclear is the only power source where a portion of monthly payments goes into a decommissioning fund. Kemm dismisses the notion that decommissioning is a major expense, stating that nuclear scientists know how to handle the process effectively. When asked about living near a nuclear plant or in a building with electric vehicles (EVs), Kemm prefers living near a nuclear plant, explaining that EVs have faced political pushback and that the energy stored in their batteries can be dangerous in certain situations.
00:55:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the safety zone around the nuclear reactors in South Africa, which has caused housing development to be restricted. He mentions how there are lawsuits demanding the rights to build houses inside the security area and highlights the presence of a nature reserve within the safety zone where people can hike and have picnics. The conversation then shifts to climate change, with the speaker expressing skepticism about the notion that the increase in carbon dioxide levels is causing significant effects. He compares the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere to golf balls and argues that only a small portion of it has been added since the time of Queen Victoria. The speaker suggests that magnetic variations of the sun and cosmic rays may have a greater influence on temperature changes.

01:00:00 - 01:05:00

Kelvin Kemm discusses his belief that variations in the magnetic field of the sun are the cause of global warming and argues that the focus on CO2 as the main driver of climate change has led to unnecessary overreaction and damage to the planet. He suggests that a backlash against these policies is imminent and highlights the need to prioritize the economy. Kemm also discusses the potential for small modular reactors to address CO2 emissions from coal and sees them as a viable solution that can be implemented without a traditional national grid. He emphasizes that the negative perception surrounding nuclear energy is unfounded and that small modular reactors can be a flexible and accessible solution for countries with unique geographical challenges.