Summary of Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “ Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", physicist Joachim Dengler discusses the importance of temperature in the carbon cycle and its relationship with CO2 concentration. He introduces his top-down approach, which focuses on the system as a whole, and emphasizes the significance of temperature in the transfer of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean and the chemical reactions involved. Dengler criticizes current IPCC models for predicting ever-rising CO2 concentrations and discusses the challenges of modeling the carbon cycle, including the marine biota and land biomass carbon cycles. He also explains the concept of the synchronization effect (ZNC effect) and its relationship with temperature, contrasting it with the popular argument that cumulative emissions are a predictor for temperature. Dengler emphasizes the role of temperature in carbon absorption in the ocean, leading to a 5% increase in the sink effect when using monthly data. He also shares an observation from the 1950s and early 1960s, which found a yearly absorption rate of approximately 4.76% through the analysis of a radiocarbon (C14) emission pulse, seen as strong confirmation of the temperature's role in carbon absorption.

00:00:00 In this section, Dr. Joachim Dengler introduces himself as a physicist with a background in image analysis and model building. He has previously worked on projects related to brain matching, fingerprint analysis, and IT consulting. Currently, he focuses on climate research and has written peer-reviewed papers on emissions and concentrations. Dr. Dengler explains that there are two approaches to understanding the carbon cycle: a bottom-up approach that analyzes individual effects of a complex system, and a top-down approach that looks at the system as a whole. He mentions the importance of temperature in the transfer of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean and the chemical reactions involved. Dr. Dengler also mentions the Revelle factors and the complexity of modeling the carbon cycle, including the marine biota and land biomass carbon cycles. He criticizes current IPCC models for predicting ever-rising CO2 concentrations unless anthropogenic emissions are reduced to zero.
00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler discusses the discrepancy between the capacity of the ocean in climate models and its actual size, which is 50 times larger than the atmosphere. He then introduces his approach, called the top-down approach, where the focus is on the system as a whole, analyzing long-term time series of inputs and outputs. Dengler mentions that while we can measure CO2 emissions and concentrations, as well as global temperature, particularly sea surface temperature, it is difficult to learn much from large correlations as they do not imply causation. After 1960, there is a strong correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature, but Dengler warns against drawing incorrect conclusions from such correlations.
00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler challenges the common assumption that CO2 concentration causes temperature increases based on the given graph. He points out the temperature cycles between 1850 and 1975, where temperature variations are large while CO2 concentration increases smoothly. Dengler argues that if CO2 caused temperature changes, temperature variations should also be smooth. He introduces the concept of mass conservation in physics, which can be thought of as a bank account with emissions as input and absorptions as output. The concentration growth is the result of both anthropogenic and natural emissions minus absorptions. By changing the variables, Dengler derives the "SNc effect," which is the difference between absorptions and natural emissions. The SNc effect is illustrated with the green line, representing the difference between emissions and concentration growth, which goes into the oceans or plants. Dengler clarifies that the SNc effect is increasing, not decreasing, as some may have misunderstood from the graph due to the negative scale on the left.
00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler explains the relationship between temperature and the carbon cycle. He clarifies that the diagram presented is not a model but a consequence of Henry's law, which states that the concentration of CO2 in water is proportional to the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere. This means the rate of ocean absorption is proportional to atmospheric concentration, and emissions from warm oceans are also controlled by Henry's law, which is temperature-dependent. Dengler then discusses photosynthesis, stating that the absorption part is a linear function of CO2 concentration, and both C3 and C4 plants have a linear function of CO2 concentration within the range of 280 to 600 PPM. Additionally, photosynthesis depends on temperature, with warmer temperatures leading to better growth until an ideal temperature of 30°C is reached. A 1°C rise in temperature can result in 7% more plant growth, which could potentially feed more people.
00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler discusses the carbon cycle and the role of the biological sphere in absorbing and emitting carbon. He explains that while 50% of carbon absorbed by plants is immediately emitted due to respiration, 25% is used for human and animal consumption or as wood, and 24% undergoes decomposition with different time constants. Dengler emphasizes that absorptions are consistently larger than emissions in the natural world, and the difference is growing. He refutes the notion that natural emissions are so large that anthropogenic emissions are insignificant, stating that the biological world functions as a carbon sink and that the saturation of this effect is not expected for at least the next 60 years. Contrary to popular belief, Dengler argues against the idea that reducing livestock or having fewer children will help solve the carbon problem. Instead, he suggests that the biological world is "greedy for carbon."
00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Joachim Dengler discusses the relationship between the synchronization effect (ZNC effect) and temperature, contrasting it with the popular argument that cumulative emissions are a predictor for temperature. Dengler explains that the ZNC effect cannot be related to emissions due to the lack of communication between them, and instead, it is proportional to the local concentration. The regression of the synchronization effect assuming a linear function of concentration reveals approximately 2% of the concentration and a constant of -5.2 PPM, which translates to approximately 10.1 Gat tons of natural carbon emissions per year. The concentration growth is modeled as emissions minus ZNC effects, and the residuals from this equation, which represent hypothetical natural emissions, can be computed. The blue line in the graph represents measured emissions, and when smoothed, they exhibit a cyclic curve, with Roy Spencer suggesting that this residual depends on El Niño.
00:30:00 In this section of the podcast, physicist Joachim Dengler discusses his idea of creating a temperature-dependent syn model instead of the simple sync model that only depends on concentration. However, they face a challenge as concentration and temperature are highly correlated, making it difficult to determine the cause-and-effect relationship. To address this issue, they decompose the global temperature into a linear function of concentration and a part that is not correlated, which is referred to as the residual temperature. By replacing the temperature-dependent part of the correlation with a concentration-dependent expression, they obtain a different equation, which is a simple linear model enhanced by trendless temperature changes. The residual temperature, which is similar to El Niño, no longer has a trend, and this explains why they can only expect to see an effect from this green temperature.
00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler discusses the importance of temperature in carbon cycle models and the impact of El Niño on carbon sinks. He explains that temperature-dependent models show better results than simple linear models, particularly in explaining the wiggles in CO2 concentration data. However, there is a significant deviation around 1990, which cannot be explained by temperature alone. This deviation is attributed to the El Niño explosion of 1990, which created a large carbon sink due to increased dust in the atmosphere reflecting sunlight and increasing diffuse light, leading to enhanced photosynthesis. When this syn pulse is included in the calculation of emission growth, the model fits the data quite well, with only slight deviations after 2010.
00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler discusses the relationship between temperature and CO2 concentration growth. He explains that their model, which takes into account temperature and other factors, explains the actual concentration growth more precisely than a linear model. Although equilibrium, which assumes zero concentration growth and zero anthropogenic emissions, would result in a temperature anomaly of -4.4 degrees Celsius and a CO2 concentration of 309 parts per million (PPM), we are far from reaching that state given current emissions. The temperature sensitivity to CO2 concentration is approximately 66 PPM per degree Centigrade, suggesting that half of the concentration growth during the Industrial Age could be attributed to temperature. However, Dengler emphasizes that this does not exclude the existence of causality in the other direction and that he does not deny the greenhouse effect.
00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", the speaker discusses the role of temperature in the carbon cycle and the importance of temperature-dependent models. He mentions that the effects of these models are currently small and hardly noticeable for predictions due to uncertainty about future temperatures. However, when the correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature breaks, temperature becomes an active predictor, especially in historic data. Analyzing ice core data from the past, where there are no anthropogenic emissions, reveals a sync effect proportional to carbon concentration of 1.3% per 100 years. The speaker hypothesizes that this sync effect could be the permanent conversion of CO2 into limestone, as once it's converted into limestone, it's essentially gone forever. The temperature factor also explains the variability of CO2, which wanders between 200 and 300 PPM, and is all explained by temperature.
00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler discusses the relationship between temperature and CO2 concentration. He explains that when there is no emission growth, there is an equilibrium relation between concentration and temperature, with a temperature of 0 degrees resulting in a CO2 concentration of 300 parts per million (PPM). The concentration sensitivity by temperature is much smaller in the past than in modern times, with only 14 PPM per degree compared to 66 PPM per degree in modern times. Dengler suggests that the smaller sensitivity could be explained by the contribution of the ocean to the carbon cycle, as the biological world takes 100 years to come to equilibrium. He also notes that temperature causes CO2 concentration, not the other way around, and that there is a near-unanimous understanding in the scientific community that the causal direction is from temperature to CO2 concentration. Dengler then goes on to discuss the improved understanding of the carbon cycle, which involves interpreting model constants as temperature effects rather than El Niño effects, resulting in a large synchronous effect of 4.4%, compared to the normal linear model's 2% synchronous effect. However, this large synchronous effect is compensated by large natural emissions and temperature-dependent natural emissions.
00:55:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler discusses the impact of temperature on carbon absorption in the ocean. He explains that the temperature effect is significant, leading to a 5% increase in the sink effect when using monthly data. The formula for concentration growth includes emissions, temperature anomaly, and natural emissions. Dengler also shares an observation from the 1950s and early 1960s when atomic bomb tests released a pulse of radiocarbon (C14). By analyzing the decay of this emission pulse, they found a yearly absorption rate of approximately 4.76%, which is consistent with the temperature-dependent model. This observation is seen as strong confirmation of the temperature's role in carbon absorption. The natural emissions release old carbon, which takes decades to fully absorb, while the bomb tests' emission pulse is more recent, allowing for a clearer measurement of the absorption rate.

01:00:00 - 01:15:00

In the YouTube video "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler explores the significance of temperature in the carbon cycle and its impact on carbon absorption and emissions. He explains that most ocean carbon is old and temperature-dependent, with 3% of it originating from upwelling. Dengler also discusses the relationship between temperature and photosynthesis, mentioning the optimal temperature for photosynthesis and the existence of a thermostat in the oceans. Furthermore, Dengler talks about the RGT rule in chemistry, which states that reaction velocity doubles for each 10-degree temperature rise. He argues that natural CO2 equilibrium between the ocean and atmosphere is temperature-dependent and that current anthropogenic emissions could have positive effects on plant growth and the ocean's capacity to store CO2. Lastly, Dengler highlights the role of the ocean in the carbon cycle through the formation of limestone by marine biota, which is a significant contributor to the carbon cycle and results in permanent carbon storage.

01:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler discusses the importance of temperature in the carbon cycle and how it affects carbon absorption and emissions. He explains that most carbon in the ocean is old and barely contains any new carbon, and that 4.4 to 5% of carbon in the ocean is "downwelling" carbon, with 3% of that coming from upwelling and being temperature-dependent. Dengler also mentions that the yearly temperature dependence is 2.9 to 4 PPM per degree centigrade, meaning that temperature variations cause concentration growth to vary in the same way. In 2020, there was a temperature-dependent increase in CO2 concentration that overcompensated the reduction in emissions due to COVID-19, making it difficult to notice the effect of the emission reduction in the concentration growth. Overall, Dengler concludes that the temperature-dependent model leads to downward absorptions and upwards emissions of natural CO2, with absorptions predominantly depending on CO2 concentration and natural emissions depending on temperature. However, subtle effects can be explained by temperature-dependent absorption, and the consequences of anthropogenic emissions remain the same.
01:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Dengler discusses the role of temperature in the carbon cycle and the importance of understanding the relationship between temperature and photosynthesis. He mentions that analyzing the C13 isotope data can help clarify the role of oceans and photosynthesis in the carbon cycle. Dengler also shares that the optimal temperature for photosynthesis on Earth is around 30°C, and that most of the Earth's surface and oceans do not exceed this temperature. He also mentions the existence of a thermostat in the oceans that prevents them from becoming warmer than 30°C. Dengler concludes by sharing that humans have the ability to adapt to high temperatures through the use of air conditioning, while most plants thrive at 30°C. He also mentions that corn, in particular, grows best at 93 degrees Fahrenheit (34.4°C).
01:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Joachim Dengler discusses the relationship between temperature and reaction speed in chemistry, specifically the RGT rule which states that for each 10-degree temperature rise, reaction velocity doubles. He also touches upon the argument made by Patrick Moore that without human intervention, atmospheric CO2 levels may have continued to decrease, potentially threatening life on Earth. However, Dengler argues that natural CO2 equilibrium between the ocean and atmosphere is temperature-dependent, and that the current anthropogenic emissions could be considered a "blessing in disguise" due to the positive effects on plant growth and the ocean's capacity to store CO2. He also emphasizes that it takes a significant amount of time to reach this equilibrium and that the biological sync effect may be reduced once it is achieved.
01:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Temperature - Missing link of the carbon cycle” | Tom Nelson Pod #249", Joachim Dengler discusses the role of the ocean in the carbon cycle, specifically focusing on the formation of limestone through the actions of marine biota. He explains that when phytoplankton grows and dies, it sinks to the ocean floor, taking carbon with it in the form of calcium carbonate. This process, according to Dengler, is a significant contributor to the carbon cycle and results in limestone that is effectively permanent. He also mentions that living beings, such as corals and hens, produce limestone, and eating an egg sequesters five grams of CO2. While Dengler acknowledges that there may be some calcium carbonate formation in the ocean without life involvement, he emphasizes the importance of biological processes in this cycle.