Summary of Robert Ian Holmes: Bringing real empirical science into the climate debate | Tom Nelson Pod #74

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Robert Ian Holmes, a climate science PhD holder, discusses the importance of considering climate cycles in analyzing climate change data in an interview with Tom Nelson. He highlights various climate cycles, such as the 60-year Yoshimura cycle and the 240-year Swiss Cloud cycle, and emphasizes the potential roles of cosmic rays and clouds in climate change. Holmes argues that current CO2 levels are the lowest they have ever been in Earth's history and that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere won't cause any more warming. He also challenges the notion that greenhouse gases are responsible for 98% of warming since 1750 and suggests there could be an economic benefit at the RPC level of three degrees Celsius. Furthermore, he presents evidence that climate variability is being eliminated through data manipulation and debunks claims that CO2 caused the last warming. Finally, Holmes urges people not to worry about CO2 and to rely on natural climate cycles that dominate our planet.

00:00:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes, a climate science PhD holder from Australia, talks about how clouds make a huge difference in climate change, more so than CO2. He shares his experience being a climate skeptic as a student in climate science and how difficult it was to bring evidence-based and empirical science into the climate debate. Holmes discusses the lack of recognition of various climate cycles by the IPCC and emphasizes the importance of the scientific method in understanding the potential risks and correct course of action towards climate change mitigation.
00:05:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes discusses the importance of considering climate cycles in the analysis of climate data. He talks about the 60-year Yoshimura cycle and the 240-year Swiss Cloud cycle which are revealed when data is analyzed over longer time periods. He also mentions longer climate cycles that go back a thousand years such as the 1000-year bond cycle and shorter-term cycles like those found in the last thousand years of tree ring proxy data. At even longer time scales, he talks about 100,000-year cycles of ice ages and a 32 million year climate cycle caused by the solar system's movement through the Milky Way. He emphasizes that on these larger time scales, there is little relationship between CO2 and temperature.
00:10:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes discusses the relationship between large-scale climate cycles and ice ages, which are caused by the solar system passing through spiral arms. He notes that CO2 has no effect on the troposphere, but there is warming in the mesosphere and stratosphere. All models predict a hotspot developing over the tropics if greenhouse gas warming exists, but there is no evidence of this. CO2 lags behind temperature changes on both long and short timescales. The oceans are the main contributor to warming, while the atmosphere has a relatively small effect. The radiation from CO2 cannot penetrate the earth and heat the oceans, so the IPCC's attribution of 98% of warming since 1750 to greenhouse gases faces a problem.
00:15:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes explains that the absorption of CO2 on Earth is already saturated and that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere won't cause any more warming. He shows a graph that indicates fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 over the last 11,000 years and explains that current CO2 levels are the lowest they've ever been in the earth's history. Additionally, he discusses how higher CO2 levels can actually be beneficial for plant growth and how CO2 fertilization has caused deserts to green in some areas, while also feeding millions more people. However, Holmes notes that there are issues with relying on just one type of proxy CO2 data, such as ice core CO2 data, as there are differences between ice core CO2 data and other proxy CO2 data, such as plant stomata.
00:20:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes discusses how universities can be hesitant to publish data that goes against the mainstream narrative on climate change. He provides examples of how ice core CO2 data differs from other proxy CO2 data obtained through plants due to the compression effect caused by snowpack on top of ice. Holmes also highlights the role of clouds in influencing climate temperatures and cycles, citing data that indicates a decrease in global cloud cover has resulted in higher temperatures over time. He argues that clouds, rather than CO2, may have more significant impacts on climate change.
00:25:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes discusses cosmic climatology and how cosmic rays can impact the earth and cause climate changes. He explains that cosmic rays can cause changes in cloud cover and therefore affect the amount of solar energy that reaches the surface of the earth. Holmes emphasizes that there is a strong correlation between changes in cosmic rays and global temperatures, which is often overlooked in the climate change debate. He presents a graph showing how galactic cosmic ray flux was highest during the little ice age, and mentions that changes in the sun's intensity also impact the cosmic ray flux that reaches the earth. Overall, Holmes argues that clouds are a major driving force behind climate changes and that it is important to consider cosmic rays in discussions about climate change.
00:30:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes discusses the history of climate change and points out that the earth has gone through periods of warming and cooling, long before humans existed. Holmes argues that cosmic rays cause climate change rather than CO2 levels and says that there is a strong negative feedback in the climate system. He also argues that graphs used by CO2 proponents are misleading and that the long-wave radiation from the sun influences the Earth's atmosphere and greenhouse gases. Lastly, Holmes mentions that last year's snow cover was massive, and there has been no reduction in snow cover until now.
00:35:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes discusses various aspects of climate science and the economic impact of climate change. He argues that while black carbon emissions may cause temporary melting of snow in areas like China, it isn't a permanent problem. CO2, according to Holmes, doesn't have a significant impact on the Arctic and temperature cycles. Using data from Professor Tol, who calculated the economic benefits of warming up to 2.2 degrees Celsius from 2009 levels, Holmes suggests that according to the IPCC, the temperature has only risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius, which means there could be an economic benefit at the RPC level of three degrees Celsius. Holmes also identifies five climate cycles correlated with Earth's Moon temperature and TSI, demonstrating that the difference in TSI is enormous and a natural forcing that can cause a thousand times more significant change than the alleged CO2 forcing. However, the negative feedback mechanism of clouds maintains stability over prolonged periods.
00:40:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes discusses the role of solar cycles in climate change. He highlights the correlation between past solar cycles and current ones, suggesting that a longer-term cycle may be responsible for current trends in global temperatures. He also notes that solar activity has increased significantly over the past 330 years and that the current solar cycle is the highest seen in 11,000 years. Using several graphs and data from various sources, he argues that natural cycles of warming and cooling are responsible for current climate trends and that the direction of these cycles will likely continue in the same direction in the future.
00:45:00 In this section of the video, Robert Ian Holmes discusses the underpinning of climate cycles and the contribution of greenhouse gases to warming trends. He mentions the unreliability of the IPCC report, stating that only 18 climate scientists worked on its attribution section, which determines all other groups' outcomes. He also discusses the inaccuracy of the TSI range and tempers adjustments and hockey sticks in the assessment report, stating that it is not an accurate method of finding temperature because other factors, such as tree growth, contribute to the growth and decline of trees over time.
00:50:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes presents data that shows how climate variability is being eliminated through data manipulation. He shows how the Bureau of Meteorology data in Australia was adjusted to show more warming than was originally recorded. The past has been cooled while the latter periods have been warmed so that it creates a smoother and steeper temperature graph that correlates with CO2 concentration. Global temperature data, such as GISS, has done the same thing and slowed the data while increasing its steepness. Using data from oceans, Holmes debunks that CO2 caused the last warming. In the Scotland temperatures for the last 800 years, cycles are still visible though less prominent in local areas. Finally, the temperature in central England since 1659 shows that there is no rapid increase in temperature due to greenhouse gas emissions.
00:55:00 In this section, Robert Ian Holmes discusses the conflict between the ideal gas law and the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, which IPCC acknowledges takes decades or even centuries to reach equilibrium. Holmes believes there is a greater reliance on the natural climate cycles that dominate our climate, which means that slight cooling could occur between now and 2050 but a slight warming after that. He urges people not to worry about CO2 as research analyses suggest that there is a great discrepancy between the ideal gas law and the greenhouse effect.

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