Summary of Judith Curry Part 1: Presentation about her new book | Tom Nelson Podcast #77

00:00:00 - 00:25:00

In a Tom Nelson Podcast, Dr. Judith Curry provides an overview of her book, "Climate Uncertainty and Risk," which addresses the lack of consensus among climate scientists on crucial issues such as the human contribution to climate change and the potential dangers of warming. Curry points out that scientific disagreements can lead to progress, and notes that the IPCC's insistence on consensus has been a limiting factor in climate research. She believes that climate change is a Wicked problem with natural causes and unknown processes. Additionally, Curry discusses the challenges facing scientists who disagree with interpretations that support desired policy objectives and risk losing their jobs. Curry's goal is to have her work be respected in the academic and policy-making worlds.

• 00:00:00 In this section, Judith Curry introduces herself and explains her background in academia, as well as her current role as president of Climate Forecast Applications Network. Curry also briefly discusses her blog, Climate Etc, and how her experiences have provided her with a broad perspective on climate change. She then gives an overview of her book, "Climate Uncertainty and Risk," which addresses the lack of consensus among climate scientists on crucial issues such as the human contribution to climate change and the potential dangers of warming. Curry points out that scientific disagreements can lead to progress, and notes that the IPCC's insistence on consensus has been a limiting factor in climate research.
• 00:05:00 In this section, Judith Curry discusses the IPCC's approach to scientific uncertainties and dissent, which involves using consensus as a proxy for truth, manufacturing consensus, and enforcing overconfidence and belief polarization. She also explains how the framing of the climate change problem as caused by excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and solvable through the elimination of fossil fuel emissions is a mischaracterization. Instead, Curry believes that climate change is a Wicked problem with natural causes and unknown processes, and the solution is to manage basic human necessities while reducing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. Finally, Curry points out that there are two separate risk categories for climate change, and attributing extreme weather and climate events to global warming commits a logical fallacy of conflation.
• 00:10:00 In this section, the speaker discusses how the proposed strategy of eliminating CO2 emissions to deal with the emergency risks associated with extreme weather events may have some incremental benefits in the future but will not address the urgent need to reduce the effect of those events on vulnerable regions through economic development. The urgent need to reduce fossil fuel emissions, that is exacerbating energy poverty and unreliability, has been the result of misperceiving climate risk, playing on psychological fears of certain types of risk to increase alarm, and the cultural theory of risk that filters our views on risk through cultural world views of society. The response to climate risk driven by alarmism and extinction rhetoric has arguably increased social risks associated with climate change, including energy poverty. Encroachment of politics into science is unavoidable, and while policy makers misuse science by using it as a vehicle to avoid hot potato policy issues, scientists misuse policy relevant science by playing power politics with their expertise. The politicization of science is not limited to climate science but also involves Covid-19, gender studies, and genetically modified food, and cancel culture is alive and well.
• 00:15:00 In this section, Judith Curry talks about the challenges facing scientists who disagree with interpretations that support desired policy objectives and risk losing their jobs. She highlights the concerns expressed by risk scientists and philosophers who don't have a particular stake in the climate fight but have noted the lack of scientific rigor in current approaches and how it leads to poorly presented climate change risks and uncertainties. Curry's book, "Climate Uncertainty and Risk," provides a comprehensive framework that rethinks the climate change problem and its solutions by showing how both have been oversimplified, explaining how understanding uncertainty can help assess risks and provide solutions, even when there is disagreement, and describing how the climate change challenge has evolved in the context of an interplay among scientists, organizations, national and international policies, politics, and people's needs and desires. Part One examines the political context, the underpinnings of the climate consensus, the challenges of international policy responses, and how mixing politics and science in the climate debate has hindered both the scientific and policy processes.
• 00:20:00 In this section, Dr. Judith Curry provides an overview of her new book, "Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster." The book includes various chapters that explore topics such as regional climate variability, global climate models, and risk management frameworks. Chapters eight and nine present innovative material describing how Dr. Curry approaches developing regional climate scenarios for the next several decades without directly using climate models. The book emphasizes the paramount importance of adaptation, resilience, and development, while providing a comprehensive risk management approach. Overall, the book emphasizes the need for a focus on resilience and anti-fragility to support human well-being now and in the future.
• 00:25:00 In this section, Judith Curry discusses how the politics of alarm and fear surrounding climate change are ineffective. She argues for a politics of uncertainty, which acknowledges the many uncertainties around climate change while also encouraging better risk management and decision-making. Curry believes that a combination of uncertainty, techno-optimism, and enlightened self-interest can help humanity thrive in a changing climate. Her book, "Climate Guesses vs. Data," will be released in early June and will be available in hardback, PDF, and Kindle formats. Curry's goal is to have her work be respected in the academic and policy-making worlds.