Summary of #3 - Roger Tattersall (Tallbloke) on solar influences on Earth's climate

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Roger Tattersall, also known as "Tallbloke," discusses his background and experience with the climate debate, emphasizing the importance of understanding how science should be conducted and the dangers of bias. He argues that solar activity has a strong effect on Earth's climate and that historic volcanic eruptions should be considered in climate models. Tattersall criticizes the practice of splicing data sets together to create a flawed narrative and warns of the dangers of policy-based evidence. He stresses the importance of proper debate and discussion in science and policymaking and credits his own blog as a platform for citizen science.

00:00:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall, also known as Tallbloke, introduces himself as a long-time climate skeptic living in Northern England. He talks about his interests in science and how he ended up doing a joint honors degree in philosophy and history and philosophy of science, which gave him a broad-based grounding in understanding science as a whole. He emphasizes the importance of understanding how science should be conducted and how scientists often become too specialized and don't see the bigger picture.
00:05:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall, also known as "Tallbloke," discusses his background and experience with the climate debate, dating back to 1988, when Jim Hansen gave his testimony to Congress. He initially thought it all looked uncertain but had no significant impact on society. However, fast forward to the present, and government policies are threatening economies that the world depends on. Tattersall expresses his concern about the debate not following proper scientific progress since people who are skeptical are censored, shut out, or suppressed, preventing fair scientific progress. He believes people should be able to present hypotheses, then others try to find counter-evidence to show the hypothesis is wrong to progress science better, instead of one-sided bias, posing a danger to everyone.
00:10:00 result in global cooling and explains the concerns about colder weather that occurred in the 1970s. There were reports on the impact of this temperature change on crop production and the possibility of civil unrest. Recently, a scientific paper by Ned Nicolov and Carl Zeller has shown that there was a big drop of around eight watts per square meter from 1962 to 1974 in the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. The figure is significant, especially when compared to the heating power of carbon dioxide that is ascribed to 3.7 watts per doubling of carbon. It highlights the sensitivity of other climate factors such as the shortwave radiation from the sun that could cause a drop of several degrees and lead to global cooling.
00:15:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall (Tallbloke) discusses the effect of solar radiation on Earth's climate, which can be ameliorated by the ocean's heat capacity. Tattersall explains that the amount of sun reaching the surface is changed by cloud albedo, and there was an increase in cloud cover during the 60s and 70s, followed by a decrease since the end of the 80s, leading to global warming. He criticizes the mainstream explanation of the greenhouse effect, stating that climate scientists know that additional solar radiation caused most of the warming, but they add an ad hoc hypothesis to their theory about carbon dioxide trapping heat to explain it away. Tattersall believes there is a long-term relationship between the sun's activity and Earth's surface temperature, which is amplified by the sun's effect on cloud cover.
00:20:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall, also known as Tallbloke, argues against presupposing a human fingerprint on climate change and global warming. He suggests that the sun had a strong effect on climatic variation in the past and that there's no reason to suppose that it stopped affecting climatic variation just because humans started emitting more carbon dioxide. Although he acknowledges that further research is needed on the complex issue of climate change, he predicts a reduction in global surface temperature by around 0.2-0.5 degrees Celsius till 2050 due to low solar activity and suggests that the earth and its creatures are more resilient and able to cope with change than what some alarmists suggest. Tattersall also talks about long-term cyclicities in climatic variation, such as the Bray cycle, that last for about 2,500 years and may cause things to gently warm up after some ups and downs and excursions along the way caused by other shorter-term cyclicities.
00:25:00 In this section, Tallbloke discusses the temperature of Earth during previous interglacial periods, stating that the Little Ice Age was likely as cold as it has been since the previous deglaciation 120,000 years ago. He also touches on the idea of sudden cooling and the fear of apocalyptic events caused by climate change, noting that while natural changes, such as undersea earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, can be devastating to large populations in a regional part of the planet, we're not talking about the longer and slower climatic changes such as the descent into the next glaciation.
00:30:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall, also known as Tallbloke, discusses the possibility that historic darkened skies were the result of volcanic activity rather than changes in solar activity. He notes that some of the largest volcanic eruptions happened when the sun was inactive, and while these events caused a drop in the Earth's temperature, the models used by climate scientists do not include any volcanic eruptions. Tattersall suggests that scientists should consider past volcanic events to introduce some average or idea of the damages that erupting events could bring. He also mentions that climate change has to be framed as apocalyptic to convince people to take action, therefore driving media outlets to amplify stories told by climate scientists, while dissenters are cast out from academic institutions.
00:35:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall, also known as "Tallbloke," discusses the inherent uncertainty surrounding climate change and the reluctance of some scientists to publicly express their doubts. He suggests that the drastic nature of the changes being enforced on entire populations, combined with the massive loss of faith that would occur should the scientists be proved wrong, make some of them so afraid of being wrong that they might even prefer to start a nuclear war to blame the cold on a nuclear winter rather than admit they were wrong about global warming. Tallbloke believes it is unethical to oversell scientific ideas and to allow them to be blown out of proportion when the scientists themselves know better.
00:40:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall, also known as Tallbloke, discusses the issue of policy-based evidence rather than evidence-based policy. He points out the incentive to fudge data to suit a particular narrative and warns about the dangers of having the same people who collect, curate, and theorize about the data. Tallbloke explains that mature disciplines such as civil engineering have a chain of custody on the evidence, which ensures accountability. He also touches on the topic of carbon dioxide measurements, stating that prior to 1950, there were chemical measurements indicating CO2 levels higher than 430 ppm, but experimental error and lack of full information could have caused uncertainty in the readings. He questions the stability of CO2 levels in ancient ice cores and suggests that the diffusion of gas through ice smooths out peaks and troughs, which could result in a misleading record.
00:45:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the ice core record and how it is used to support the narrative that CO2 was stable in the past. However, evidence shows that natural variation in CO2 was much greater in the past than the record used by the IPCC suggests, and this evidence is often ignored or dismissed. The speaker also criticizes the practice of splicing data sets together to create a flawed narrative and calls it "scientific fraud." The conversation then turns to the idea that CO2 is evenly distributed all around the globe, although the speaker admits that it may be true to some extent.
00:50:00 In this section, the speaker discusses how carbon dioxide is misunderstood and vilified, and points to some of the benefits of the trace gas. He cites a NASA study from 2015 that showed Earth had become about 30% greener in recent decades due to increased CO2, resulting in shrinking deserts and more abundant crops. He also challenges the argument that global warming leads to more dangerous temperatures and highlights that more people die of cold-related problems than heat-related ones. He warns of the potential dangers of governments reducing fertilizer production due to a concerted effort worldwide, stating that nature controls population growth.
00:55:00 In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of proper debate and discussion in science and policymaking regarding climate change. He argues that all points of view should be heard, and that suppressing debate in favor of biased policymaking ultimately leads to bad outcomes for everyone. Furthermore, he stresses that science has become the "arbiter of truth" in modern society and misusing it for political gain can lead to a loss of trust in science and ultimately, an increase in violence and conflict. The speaker credits his own blog as a platform for "cutting-edge citizen science", where he explored the effects of the planets' motions on the earth's climate, leading to a burgeoning field of discussion and idea-sharing.

01:00:00 - 01:15:00

In this YouTube video, Tallbloke discusses the issue of biased decision-making among climate experts in the BBC and the need for proper science to be done. He also provides evidence from different sources that confirms a decrease in cloud cover and increased warming due to more sunlight reaching the surface of the earth. Additionally, he suggests there needs to be a correction in how climate policy is being formulated and advocates for the growth of the economy instead of burdening taxpayers with taxes for carbon emissions. Lastly, he notes the importance of forming new political parties to combat climate change propaganda and encourages people to keep speaking the truth about climate change.

01:00:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall discusses the excitement of being involved in a process that has led to published papers on solar variation that are given proper peer review and considered a valid contribution to scientific literature. He explains his team's ability to predict solar variation, which was previously thought to be impossible beyond a few years. Tattersall describes how they created an algorithm that generated a model of future solar activity, which was published in 2013 in a journal called Pattern Recognition in Physics. However, the journal was shut down only two weeks later because some IPCC scientists wrote to the overarching publisher, complaining that the paper contradicted what the IPCC was saying about increased warming. Tattersall also mentions serious issues with censorship and one-sidedness in climate change debate, citing how the BBC decided not to give any platform to climate skeptics because the science was settled.
01:05:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall (also known as Tallbloke) discusses the issue of biased decision-making among climate experts in the BBC. Despite the BBC refusing to provide the list of climate experts who decided that there was no need for a balanced debate regarding climate issues anymore, one of the community members managed to find the original PDF that contained all the names. What they found was that interested parties from campaigning organizations such as the WWF and Greenpeace were the so-called climate experts who made the decision. Tallbloke believes that this raises the question of who is really making policy and why the government is giving money to these kinds of organizations to lobby them to get the outcomes they want. Furthermore, he shares his belief that science needs to be done properly, and the population deserves better from their elected representatives.
01:10:00 In this section, Roger Tattersall discusses the evidence from different sources that confirm that there was a decrease in cloud cover which led to more sunlight reaching the surface of the earth, followed by increased warming. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, the Earthshine project, the Serres data, and sunshine accounts from various countries all show the same results. Tattersall argues that taxpayers should not be burdened with taxes for carbon emissions used as an excuse to restrict lifestyles and slow down economies. He suggests that there needs to be a correction in how climate policy is being formulated. He also believes that the common sense of voters is not in support of the climate scam, and that politicians should stop burdening taxpayers with taxes for carbon emissions and enable the growth of their economy.
01:15:00 In this section, the speaker notes that all major political parties in major countries have signed up to the propaganda surrounding climate change. He suggests that new political parties need to be formed to combat this and mentions how the younger generation is starting to see through the propaganda, while the middle-aged generation tends to be more affected by it due to their years of watching mainstream news. He encourages people to keep speaking the truth about climate change and lets listeners know that he is active on Twitter under the handle @rogTallBloke.