Summary of #5 - Polar bear expert Susan Crockford: CO2 is *not* the polar bear control knob.

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In this video, polar bear expert Susan Crockford covers a variety of topics related to polar bears, including their historical population declines and recoveries, the impact of sea ice decline on their population, misconceptions about their behavior, the relationship between polar bears and grizzly bears, and the controversy surrounding the film footage of walruses falling off cliffs. Crockford argues that polar bears are adaptable animals and are not at risk of extinction due to climate change. She also expresses skepticism about the statistical methods used to estimate polar bear populations, and the accuracy of models in polar bear research.

  • 00:00:00 In this section, zoologist Susan Crockford discusses her background in studying polar bears and arctic animals since the 1990s and how she got interested in the climate change debate surrounding these animals. She talks about being part of a list serve for marine mammal biologists and reviewing a summary document to inform Congress about polar bear biology, ecology, and evolution ahead of its decision to place them on the endangered species list. Furthermore, Crockford has been responding on social media and blogging for a long time about polar bear-related stories in the news, providing people with background and informed opinions. She has also written about other arctic animals, such as walruses, which she found to be misrepresented or glossing over historical facts, thus worth her time to study. Finally, Crockford discusses the polar bear population since the 1960s and the accuracy of censuses.
  • 00:05:00 In this section, polar bear expert Susan Crockford discusses historical population declines and recoveries among polar bears. She notes that in the early 20th century, whalers caused significant declines in the polar bear population. Consensus on the need for protection from over-hunting brought about international treaties to save the species, and by the 1980s, polar bear populations had doubled, with the species listed as "least concern" by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. While concerns about their current status have arisen in recent years, Crockford argues that polar bear numbers are expected to increase once hunting practices are moderated, as has been the case with other marine mammals.
  • 00:10:00 In this section, Susan Crockford discusses the polar bear population in areas where the Inuit people depend on them for their traditional use, including for food and skins. She explains that the Inuit manage the hunt by issuing hunting tags, and either using them for their own local people or selling them to outsiders for trophy hunting. Crockford notes that if all of the tags were kept within these communities, they would almost certainly all be used, whereas if they are sold to outsiders, there is a good chance that maybe even half of them would never get used. She also discusses the impact of sea ice decline on the polar bear population and explains that polar bears are not at risk of extinction due to climate change because they are adaptable animals.
  • 00:15:00 In this section, Susan Crockford, a polar bear expert, explains how increasing bear populations can lead to problems with younger bears not getting enough to eat. She suggests that some of the bear problems in communities, particularly in Russia, may be a consequence of this population skew. Crockford also discusses the history of polar bears, looking at fossil evidence and a dozen genetic studies to determine when they evolved from brown bears. She notes that they have lived through both warm and cold periods and argues that during glacial times, the whole of the central arctic basin would have been covered in thick ice, pushing the population out to the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, where they would have had to live for thousands of years before returning.
  • 00:20:00 In this section, Susan Crockford discusses the misconceptions around polar bear behavior and their adaptability to changing environments. Crockford argues that many supposed "unusual" behaviors of polar bears have actually been observed for hundreds of thousands of years. She notes that polar bears are opportunistic and will eat what is available, such as caribou or goose eggs, and that these food sources have increased in recent years due to greater populations. Crockford also addresses the topic of hybrid bears, which was a popular subject in the early 2000s. She explains that while some hybrids were observed, it was likely a one-time occurrence that was contained within a small family group and has not continued. Finally, Crockford explains that polar bears can live up to 30 years, and females can give birth into their 20s, although their fertility will decline.
  • 00:25:00 In this section, polar bear expert Susan Crockford explains that polar bears are not the control knob for CO2 and that the context of the polar bear-grizzly bear hybrid is quite different. The male grizzlies were coming from Canada and wandering up north over the ice in March and April, using the ice as a bridge to where the polar bears live. Some follow around behind polar bears and clean up their seal kits and may even learn how to kill seals themselves if they see a bear killing them. It's not a question that polar bears have to move into grizzly territory; grizzly bears wander thousands of kilometers during the winter season. The bears that choose to go out and colonize new habitats are under stressful situations and face physiological, hormonal, and genetic changes during speciation resulting in new forms. Ditto, dog domestication's genetics are as complex as polar bear adaptation.
  • 00:30:00 In this section, the expert discusses the size difference between polar bears and grizzly bears, stating that while a big male grizzled may weigh more than a polar bear, polar bears can reach sizes of up to 1400-1500 pounds when they are very fat. The expert also talks about the white black bear population, also known as a spirit bear, explaining that it is a white phase of a black bear that is found on the central coast of British Columbia. As for polar bear surveys, the expert explains that most surveys are conducted by air and take years before the data is collected and a report is published. She also expressed skepticism about the statistical methods used to estimate polar bear populations, especially for populations that are believed to be declining. The expert suggests that there may be a reluctance to release data that reflects positively on the polar bear population.
  • 00:35:00 In this section, polar bear expert Susan Crockford discusses the predation of polar bear cubs by adult males and how it is not uncommon in various species. She notes that in late summer and fall, when cubs are often targeted, polar bears are not in breeding condition, so any allegations of predation to bring the female back into heat at that time are unfounded. Crockford also points out the difference in behavior between polar bears and grizzlies, with the latter being much more aggressive. She adds that in some Russian cases, there have been upwards of 60 to 70 polar bears congregated at one site, but they don't mind being close together when it's not breeding season. Finally, Crockford comments on the much-talked-about incident of drowned polar bears after a storm, stating that it was critical information included in reports, but there is no definitive proof that those animals were actually polar bears.
  • 00:40:00 In this section, Susan Crockford, a polar bear expert, discusses a petition to have polar bears listed as threatened and how it was based on unfounded assumptions. The numbers were arrived at by extrapolating two floating carcasses of polar bears to the whole coast without confirming if the bears had actually drowned. The possibility of them being shot or dying due to other reasons was not considered. Crockford also talks about the swim strength of polar bears, their ability to swim hundreds of miles, and how even young cubs are good swimmers. She also points out how some high-profile pictures and videos have been misrepresented, including the widely circulated photo of a starving polar bear clinging to a piece of ice, which turned out to be a photographer’s attempt at making a point, and the bear was probably dying due to health issues.
  • 00:45:00 In this section, Susan Crockford discusses how polar bears pass the winter in areas where there is no sunlight. Pregnant female bears hibernate during winter and give birth to their cubs inside dens. Other bears spend time out on the sea ice, with no winter studies conducted because it is dark and cold. Crockford explains that polar bears have a great sense of smell and can smell a seal from far away, and they can also drive walruses off cliffs. She further discusses an incident where walruses were shown falling off cliffs in a documentary called "Our Planet," and blames it on a lack of sea ice, but it turns out that polar bears were actually driving them off the cliff.
  • 00:50:00 In this section, Susan Crockford discusses the controversy surrounding the film footage of walruses falling off cliffs, and the motives behind the production of the film. She suggests that there was a lot of careful planning and collusion that went on, and that David Attenborough was likely not oblivious to the deception. Furthermore, Crockford suggests that Attenborough may have had his own agenda and true beliefs at play, as evidenced by his promotion of the climate change agenda and his involvement in the world economic forum. Crockford also touches on the topic of collaring polar bears, explaining that collars cannot be placed on male bears or young bears due to anatomical factors.
  • 00:55:00 In this section, the discussion revolves around the methods used to track and study polar bears. Ear tags and sensors on some of the tagged bears are used to track their movements, and scientists also use tranquilizer darts to collect samples for DNA analysis. However, the use of tranquilizers has faced opposition in Canada because of concerns about tainted meat and the safety of the bears. Furthermore, the discussion also touches on the use of models in polar bear research, with concerns raised about the accuracy of these models and their potential effects on policymaking. The speaker believes that while models may have been useful in the past, they may have become dangerous due to their misuse and overreliance, leading to an exaggerated threat of issues such as climate change and COVID-19.

01:00:00 - 01:05:00

Susan Crockford, a polar bear expert, emphasizes the problems with using models to predict events in climate science and the importance of honesty and integrity in the field. Crockford discusses the issues with using opinions as facts and highlights the importance of looking at history before rushing to change it. She stresses the significance of the polar bear issue and its role in the broader climate change discussion. Additionally, Crockford mentions her books, 'The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened' and 'Polar Bear Facts and Myths,' which address polar bear ecology and the controversies surrounding it.

  • 01:00:00 In this section, Susan Crockford discusses the use of models in the climate science world and how it has corrupted the decision-making process. She highlights the flaws in using modeling to predict what is going to happen and how the results are not facts. Crockford also talks about the problems with using opinions as facts and highlights a case where a senior polar bear expert used his opinions as facts in a model back in 2007. She stresses the importance of looking at history and not rushing to change it. Finally, Crockford explains why the polar bear issue is crucial and an essential component of the broader climate change discussion.
  • 01:05:00 In this section, polar bear expert Susan Crockford discusses the importance of honesty and integrity in science and how it is necessary to move forward and learn from mistakes. She mentions that it is irksome to see other biologists behaving with less integrity in the field. Crockford also talks about her books - 'The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened', which covers the science of the whole polar bear controversy, and 'Polar Bear Facts and Myths', a kids' book that explains polar bear ecology without scaring them needlessly about climate change.

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