Summary of David Jones: Failure of experts | Tom Nelson Pod #241

This is an AI generated summary. There may be inaccuracies.
Summarize another video · Purchase summarize.tech Premium

00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 on Tom Nelson's channel, retired meteorologist David Jones shares his concerns about the failure of experts in the field of meteorology, particularly in relation to climate change and extreme weather events. Jones, who developed a fascination for meteorology through his love for skiing and fresh snow, discusses the importance of seeking and publishing truths, addressing climate change, and reducing reliance on air conditioning due to its waste heat production. The conversation touches on the 2009 heat wave in the Lower Mainland, Canada, and the development of an extreme heat alerting protocol. Tom Nelson then discusses the importance of effective communication and accurate terminology in weather forecasting and climate science. He shares his background as a meteorologist and broadcaster and reflects on the challenges of communication and the changing workplace environment. Jones criticizes the Canadian Weather Service for not adequately warning the public about the severity of recent weather events, such as the 2021 heatwave and November storm. He also discusses the confusion surrounding the term "atmospheric river" and its impact on the Lower Mainland in Canada. Jones expresses concern over the damage to the credibility of Canada's Weather Service due to the appointment of an activist as head of the science-based department. He calls for a review of past failures and urges meteorologists to speak truth to an atmosphere of nonsense. Jones also discusses the challenges faced by Canadian meteorologists in expressing heterodox views on climate change and the misuse of statistics and terminology in reporting extreme weather events. He emphasizes the importance of using precise terminology and encouraging more questioning and skepticism about the climate crisis narrative.

00:00:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 on Tom Nelson's channel, retired meteorologist David Jones shares his background in meteorology, sparked by his fascination with fresh snow and skiing. The conversation then shifts to the topic of expertise and its failure, with Jones suggesting that the failure is not organic but rather a result of various institutions, including universities and journalism, failing to seek and publish truths. Jones also discusses the importance of addressing climate change and extreme heat events, emphasizing the need for preparation and reducing reliance on air conditioning due to its production of waste heat and electricity demand. The conversation then touches on the 2009 heat wave in the Lower Mainland, Canada, and the development of an extreme heat alerting protocol.
00:05:00 In this section of the podcast, Tom Nelson discusses a hypothetical extreme weather scenario that could cause an emergency response in British Columbia, and the importance of identifying vulnerabilities and emergency management needs in advance. He mentions the Tropical Punch storm of 2005 as an example of a historical event that caused significant damage, but notes that climate change did not play a role in that storm. Nelson then introduces three "trash baskets" or bins into which extreme weather-related claims can be categorized: the argument from experience, authority, and small samples. He emphasizes the importance of listening to proper meteorologists with decades of experience when it comes to claims about West Coast weather and climate change. Nelson also shares his background as a meteorologist and broadcaster, and reflects on the challenges of communication and the changing workplace environment.
00:10:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 by Tom Nelson, David Jones shares his insights on the Canadian Weather Service's handling of two significant weather events in 2021: the June heatwave and the November storm. Jones criticizes the Weather Service for not adequately warning the public about the severity of these events, despite having the evidence to do so. He also discusses the difference between weather and climate and the role of experts and storytellers in creating hysteria. Jones argues that the Weather Service's failure to communicate effectively led to unnecessary fear and panic, and he believes that the environment in which Canadian meteorologists are trained plays a role in this issue. He suggests that the lack of accountability in the workplace hinders meteorologists from speaking up and becoming competent all-around forecasters.
00:15:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 by Tom Nelson, David Jones shares his experiences as a meteorologist and the importance of accountability and public engagement in the weather forecasting profession. He recalls how meteorologists used to read every forecast aloud, and their mistakes would result in reprimands. Jones emphasizes that becoming a public face in the weather industry fosters accountability and helps build trust with the public. However, he laments that most of the accountability-fostering tasks have disappeared, and the Weather Service has become a political organization, with integrity and credibility taking a hit. Jones criticizes the appointment of activist Steven Guilbeault as the Canadian Minister of Environment and Climate Change, who believes carbon dioxide is a pollutant, and the Weather Service's failure to accurately predict severe weather events, such as the 2021 heatwave on the west coast, is being used as a convenient smokescreen for these issues. Jones emphasizes the importance of meteorologists being able to identify weather threats, explain potential impacts, and suggest actions to save lives, as heat alerts have the potential for demonstrable life-saving impact. He concludes by stressing the need for meteorologists to be emotive and urgent when issuing heat alerts to save lives and property.
00:20:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 by Tom Nelson, a meteorologist expresses concern over the overselling and misrepresentation of weather and climate science, specifically the Sa (Seasonal Anomaly) and extreme weather events. He criticizes the use of misleading terms like "heat dome" and "atmospheric river," which are not scientifically accurate. The meteorologist also shares his experience with developing an extreme heat alerting program in 2010, which aimed to prevent deaths caused by heatwaves. Despite having an evidence-based threshold for deadly heat, the program failed to activate during a record-breaking heatwave in 2021, resulting in potential lives lost. The meteorologist emphasizes the importance of clear communication and accurate terminology in weather forecasting and climate science.
00:25:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 by Tom Nelson, the speaker discusses two significant weather warning failures in Canada. The first occurred in 2018 when the Health Partners unilaterally changed the extreme heat warning program, dismissing local research and adding a new variable to the alerting equation. This decision led to numerous confusing and meaningless low threat warnings during the summers of 2019 and 2020. The second failure happened in 2021 when The Weather Service labeled typical West Coast rainstorms as atmospheric Rivers, causing public confusion and misunderstanding. These miscommunications resulted in tragic consequences, including a death toll unheard of in Canadian history. The speaker expresses anger and helplessness over these failures, which could have been prevented with effective communication and adherence to evidence-based research.
00:30:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 by Tom Nelson, the speaker discusses the confusion surrounding the term "atmospheric river" and its impact on the Lower Mainland in Canada, particularly in Vancouver. The Lower Mainland, which includes Vancouver, is geographically situated near mountains, inland seas, and agricultural regions, making it prone to various natural hazards, especially during the rainy season. The term "atmospheric river" refers to a river of water vapor in the sky that can cause significant damage when it stalls over a specific area. The Lower Mainland, with its unique geography, is susceptible to such events, leading to potential dollar damage from rivers of rain. Despite experts' predictions of increasing frequency and intensity of such events, there is uncertainty regarding the accuracy of these models, as highlighted by meteorologist Marty Ralph. Ralph emphasizes the need to better understand why models' representations of atmospheric rivers vary, and the uncertainty surrounding the projections of this key phenomenon. The speaker also mentions the controversy surrounding the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario and the role of experts acknowledging uncertainty in their predictions.
00:35:00 In this section of the podcast, Tom Nelson discusses the experience of David Jones, a meteorologist who has grown weary of the media's sensationalized coverage of weather events. Jones has learned that being a spokesperson for the Weather Service is not the same as being a good or ethical spokesperson. He has had to fail numerous times before mastering the art of ethical communication. The media's obsession with creating fear-mongering narratives around weather events, particularly those involving heat waves, has led to endless commentary that often bears little resemblance to reality. Modelers, in particular, are criticized for their lack of understanding of practical applications, uncertainty, and ethical communication. The Weather Service must be accountable for its predictions, while modelers often escape the consequences of their inaccuracies. Nelson also discusses the Canadian Weather Service's botched handling of severe weather alerts, including the deadly heat alert in British Columbia in 2021, which resulted in 619 deaths, and the lack of investigation into these failures. The media's role in perpetuating fear and sensationalism around weather events is also criticized.
00:40:00 In this section of the Tom Nelson Pod #241 YouTube video titled "David Jones: Failure of Experts," the speaker expresses concern over the damage to the credibility of Canada's Weather Service due to the appointment of an activist as head of the science-based department. The accountability of the Metadata and Surveillance (MTS) project has vanished, and the primary project of Canadian meteorologists, communicating severe weather warnings, is in jeopardy. The speaker laments the loss of loved ones during a deadly heatwave and criticizes the meteorological service for negligence. He calls for a review of past failures and urges meteorologists to speak truth to an atmosphere of nonsense. The speaker shares his personal experience of starting out on the wrong side of the climate change debate and not speaking outside his lane of expertise. He encourounters a colleague who disparaged contrarians and trusted him, but later realized his mistake and went to those disparaged individuals to learn the truth. The speaker now sees Richard Lindzen as an excellent spokesperson for science.
00:45:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 by Tom Nelson, David Jones discusses the challenges faced by Canadian meteorologists in expressing their heterodox views on climate change, particularly in contrast to the more vocal meteorologists in the US. Jones explains that Canadian meteorologists have been conditioned to view their American counterparts as more outspoken, and that some Canadian meteorologists are hesitant to speak out due to job concerns or the activist stance of their minister of the weather department. Jones also touches upon the issue of heat warnings in Canada, where people are more accustomed to cold weather and may not fully understand the dangers of extreme heat. He shares an example of a heatwave in 2021 that was initially downplayed due to the frequent issuance of heat warnings, but ultimately proved to be deadly. Jones concludes by mentioning that while more people in Canada die from cold than heat, heat is an interesting issue due to the acclimatization of certain areas and the availability of infrastructure like air conditioning.
00:50:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 by Tom Nelson, meteorologist David Jones discusses the misuse of statistics and terminology in reporting extreme weather events. Jones recounts how a 200-year storm that hit British Columbia in 2003 was labeled unprecedented, despite a similar storm occurring just 15 months earlier. He criticizes the media and experts for relying on statistics and new terminology to exaggerate the impact of extreme weather events, which can lead to a loss of credibility and desensitization among the public. Jones argues that meteorologists and the media should be more careful in how they communicate extreme weather events, as the constant bombardment of fear and exaggeration can diminish the true impact of such events.
00:55:00 In this section of the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 by Tom Nelson, David Jones expresses his concerns about the oversell of climate risks by media, experts, and the emergency planning community. He argues that many of these individuals lack the necessary knowledge and experience to effectively mitigate climate-related issues. Jones uses the example of the Whistler Council declaring a climate emergency, dominated by those who lean towards this perspective, with only one skeptic. Jones also shares his father's memories of the Dust Bowl in Minnesota and questions the reliability of temperature records in Canada, particularly in British Columbia. Jones emphasizes the importance of using precise terminology, such as "weather" instead of "climate," and encourages more questioning and skepticism about the climate crisis narrative. He expresses frustration with the confusion surrounding the issue and the lack of clear forecasts and predictions. Despite this, Jones notes that some of his colleagues have started to change their perspectives and become more suspicious of the climate crisis narrative.

01:00:00 - 01:05:00

In the "David Jones: Failure of Experts" podcast episode 241 on Tom Nelson's YouTube channel, meteorologist David Jones shares his perspective on assessing complex systems, specifically climate science, based on his extensive experience in meteorology and model verification. Meteorologists, Jones explains, are skeptical of predictions due to the regular failure of models in their daily practice. He emphasizes the importance of track records and verification in making accurate forecasts and distinguishing them from automated systems. Jones also notes that reliable long-term weather forecasts are limited, with temperature predictions being more accurate than precipitation forecasts. The conversation concludes with Jones discussing his work and his substack pages, Powder Picker and Climate Picker.