Summary of #36 - Ronan Connolly: “rural U.S., we're finding it was about as warm in ‘30s, ‘40s as present”

This is an AI generated summary. There may be inaccuracies.
Summarize another video · Purchase summarize.tech Premium

00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Ronan Connolly, an independent scientist, discusses his research on climate change, which goes against the conclusions of the UN Intergovernmental Panel and climate change reports. He explains the difficulties his team faced in publishing their findings and the biases in temperature data collection, including urbanization and the impact of trees. Connolly emphasizes the importance of accurate data collection and questions the use of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) data sets. He also discusses the differences in beliefs about climate change between Democrats and Republicans in rural and urban areas, with Democrat voters in urban areas generally experiencing unusual climate changes. Lastly, he touches on the issue of media coverage and journalism in the current times and the importance of balanced reporting.

00:00:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly introduces himself as an independent scientist who previously worked in environmentalism. He explains that he and his father began researching climate change after being frequently asked to comment on it and finding issues with the robustness of papers being published. They spent four years doing their own research and finding results that contradicted the UN Intergovernmental Panel and climate change reports.
00:05:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly discusses the difficulties in publishing their findings on climate change and the peer review process they faced. They ended up writing eight detailed articles that would be longer than most scientific journals allow. They also realized that each point they made in the papers received criticism as the conclusions went against what is supposed to be found. They eventually decided to put all their research findings online through open peer review since the peer review system wasn't working correctly. They set up an open peer review journal where they launched their eight technical papers addressing various different things. They had a lot of engagement at the time, with comments coming from both sides of the issue.
00:10:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly discusses the reaction to his team's research on global warming. He explains that their research received criticism, including hit pieces from bloggers and skeptical blog comments. However, instead of ignoring these criticisms, his team directly communicated with the scientific community and reached out to individuals with expertise on specific aspects of the research. They also collaborated with scientists, including Dr. Elisa from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, to further hone their work. Connolly's team found inconsistencies with the urbanization bias problem, which contradicted the IPCC and other papers. In fact, their 2015 paper was cited by the co-chair of the IPCC working group as a concern beyond the scope of their report.
00:15:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly discusses the issue of non-climatic biases such as urbanization and the temperature homogenization process which can lead to a slight warming effect. He explains the importance of addressing these biases to accurately assess the true impact of climate change. Connolly refers to his 2015 paper on reevaluating the role of solar variability in the Earth's temperature trend and stresses the need to prioritize peer-reviewed papers over non-peer reviewed ones. He also gives an example of a common bias issue with Stevenson screens and how it can affect temperature readings.
00:20:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly discusses biases in temperature data collection, including the impact of trees on temperature readings and the placement of weather stations in urban and rural areas. He notes the work of Anthony Watts, who investigated US temperature data and found that many stations were located near sources of heat, such as air conditioning units, and that these biases were introducing inaccuracies into climate models. Connolly also mentions a peer-reviewed paper he co-authored in 2015 which examined the temperature data used by the IPCC and found similar biases. He emphasizes the importance of accurate data collection for making informed climate policy decisions.
00:25:00 In this section, the speaker introduces the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and describes its objective to provide governments with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies. The IPCC has three working groups, with working group one focusing on the scientific basis of climate change. The speaker notes that his work disagrees with the IPCC, and that the IPCC has been referred to by some as the "climate Bible" and the "gold standard" on climate change. The speaker discusses a 2015 paper that challenges the IPCC's conclusions on the temperature patterns of the 1930s and 1940s in rural areas of the United States.
00:30:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly explains how climate models make predictions about future climate change by using data from the past. He notes that these models use data sets on solar activity and volcanic eruptions to simulate natural forces that impact climate, and when anthropogenic forces are added in, the models show significant warming since the 1950s that is attributed to human activity. However, Connolly highlights two main problems with the models - an incomplete selection of solar data and a significant urbanization bias. To address these issues, he and his team have set up the Center for Environmental Research and Arts Sciences to conduct independent scientific research.
00:35:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the work of their research group in following the science of climate change, which may not necessarily provide policymakers with information for developing climate policies, but is an important endeavor. They present findings from a paper they worked on that looks at the warming trends in rural and urban areas, finding that in mostly rural regions, temperatures were warming until the 1940s but then cooled until the 1970s, and were about as warm in present-day as they were in the 1940s. The speaker also questions the use of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) data sets, showing there are other published estimates that show different trends.
00:40:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly discusses the historical data surrounding solar activity and its correlation to rural temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. Using data from the Douglas Height and Ken Shotton satellite teams, Connolly points out the irony of the IPCC using Height's data but not his results. Connolly also discusses the controversial "Akron Gap," which refers to the gap in satellite data due to the Challenger tragedy. Connolly and his team found a correlation between solar activity and rural temperature data, but the percentage of warming caused by humans is difficult to calculate due to various assumptions and data sources.
00:45:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly discusses the difference between rural and urban areas and their contribution to climate change. While urban areas show genuine local climate change due to urbanization, human activity, and over-sampling, rural areas in the US have stayed relatively consistent in temperature since the 1930s and 40s. However, as more people move towards urban areas, they will continue to experience warmer and more unusual climates caused by urban heat islands. The partisan politics of the US may also contribute to the over-sampling of urban areas and influence the perception of climate change.
00:50:00 In this section, Ronan Connolly talks about the differences in beliefs about climate change between Democrats and Republicans in rural and urban areas. He explains that Democrat voters in urban areas generally experience unusual climate changes that haven't been experienced before, while Republican voters in rural areas believe that climate change is natural and cyclical. When asked how much warming a weather station in South Dakota would show from 1850 to present day, Connolly explains that although the late 19th century was relatively cold due to the little Ice Age, it is still warmer now than it was in the past, and the warming trend looks similar to that of the 1940s and 30s in some regions. However, non-climatic biases limit the analysis due to the lack of weather stations in all states and free-floating stations in oceans.
00:55:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the issue with media coverage and journalism in the current times. Previously, journalism naturally veered towards propaganda, but after World War II, an effort was made to prevent it through the concept of balanced reporting. However, some activists, including climate professors, have called for a boycott of this concept and have argued that climate policies need to be taken seriously, and the scientific information used to develop them should not be debated.

01:00:00 - 01:05:00

In a YouTube video titled "#36 - Ronan Connolly: “rural U.S., we're finding it was about as warm in ‘30s, ‘40s as present”," the speaker talks about how balanced reporting in relation to climate change is being replaced with reliable reporting. He explains that accurate reporting is based on an overwhelming scientific consensus rather than false balance. However, he also cautions against mistaking reliable reporting for propaganda and suggests that truly balanced reporting allows the reader or viewer to make up their own mind. The speaker advises news consumers to be informed rather than accept headlines as factual, as nuance reveals itself with more information. He also provides links to his research and personal website for those interested in learning more or supporting his work.