Summary of Joachim Dengler: “Deconstructing the Climate Narrative” | Tom Nelson Pod #234

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In the "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’" podcast episode on Tom Nelson Pod #234, Dengler, a physics PhD from the University of Heidelberg, discusses the climate narrative and its relationship to science. He emphasizes the importance of questioning and critically evaluating scientific information, especially when it comes to complex and controversial issues like climate change . Dengler also debunks common climate narratives, such as the assumption of exponential emission growth and the relevance of horror emission scenarios. He argues that natural sinks absorb a significant portion of CO2 emissions, leading to falling concentration growth with constant emissions. Dengler also discusses the greenhouse effect, the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system to CO2, and the water vapor feedback, providing alternative perspectives on these climate-related topics.

00:00:00 In this section, Joachim Dengler, a physics PhD from the University of Heidelberg, discusses the climate narrative and its relationship to science. He explains that the climate narrative begins with a correct observation or law of physics but can be twisted or exaggerated, leading to incorrect conclusions. Dengler notes that these incorrect conclusions are often put into the future where they are difficult to verify and can create fear and catastrophic predictions. He emphasizes the importance of questioning and critically evaluating scientific information, especially when it comes to complex and controversial issues like climate change.
00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234," Dengler emphasizes the importance of understanding mainstream science and engaging with opposing viewpoints before judging. He plans to discuss four points related to the climate narrative, using the metaphor of a chair with four legs. The first leg is the assumption that anthropogenic emissions have been rising exponentially since 1945, following the end of World War II. Dengler acknowledges this growth but argues that it was historically significant, referred to as the economic miracle, and was accompanied by a 4.5% emission growth rate.
00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234," Dengler discusses the history of climate research and emissions growth. He explains that early climate models assumed exponential emission growth, but there were several periods of reduction, including a recession in the 1980s, the collapse of Communism in 1990, and a plant reduction and emissions since 2003. Dengler also mentions that human anthropogenic emissions have been flat since 2011, according to research by Shaun Marcott, who is not a climate denier. The growth in emissions is noisy due to natural emissions, which correspond to changes in temperature. Dengler suggests that if we account for natural emissions, the emission growth is much flatter than previously thought, with the maximum emission growth occurring in 2007 or 2016.
00:15:00 In this section of the "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’" podcast episode, Dengler discusses the irrelevance of horror emission scenarios and the continuous rise of atmospheric concentration. He argues that the worst-case scenario for future emissions is constant emissions of 37 gigatons of CO2 per year. Dengler also questions the assumption that all CO2 emissions contribute to atmospheric concentration growth, as not all emissions end up in the atmosphere. Instead, a significant portion is absorbed by sink systems, such as the oceans and land plants. The expert concludes that the fear-mongering around unrealistic emission scenarios and the continuous rise of atmospheric concentration should be reevaluated based on these facts.
00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234," Dengler discusses the concept of the Airborne fraction and the Burn model in the context of carbon cycles and CO2 emissions. The Airborne fraction is the assumption that half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, while the other half is absorbed. However, Dengler argues that this assumption only holds for exponential emission growth and not for constant emissions. He uses a diagram to illustrate that the Airborne fraction has been decreasing over the past 60 years, and if we had a Net Zero situation, it would go down to zero. The next scientific approach discussed is the Burn model, which suggests that carbon boxes are finite, and carbon from the atmosphere can go into the land, the mixed layer of the ocean, and the deep ocean. The Swiss physicists behind this model arrived at the conclusion that 20% of all emissions will remain in the atmosphere for at least a thousand years. Dengler explains that this conclusion comes from the observation that the diffusion into the deep ocean is slow, and effectively, only a volume four times the size of the atmosphere is used for absorbing CO2. As a result, one box takes up 80% of the CO2, and the other keeps 20%. However, Dengler notes that this is an effective distribution, and in reality, the carbon cycle is much more complex.
00:25:00 In this section of the "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’" podcast episode, Dengler discusses the Burn Model, which is a core component of global climate models. He argues that the model's transport process is too slow due to its disregard of marine biota's role in carbon transport to the deep ocean. Instead, he suggests that when considering the concentration growth, natural sinks absorb a significant portion of CO2 emissions, leading to falling concentration growth with constant emissions. Dengler asserts that the Net Zero equilibrium will be reached when CO2 concentration is 20520 PPM, and there has been no deviation from linearity in this relation over the last 70 years, giving confidence that it will hold for the next 50 years. However, constant emissions are not the most likely scenario, as the International Energy Agency projects a slight decrease in emissions after 2040.
00:30:00 In this section of the "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234" YouTube video, Dengler discusses the projected CO2 concentration growth and its impact on temperature rise. According to Dengler, before 2020, there was a 130 PPM concentration growth, causing approximately one degree of warming. After 2020, the growth is expected to be 65 PPM, resulting in an additional half degree of warming. Dengler asserts that even if one accepts the CO2 control over temperature, the Paris Agreement's goals will be met without zero emissions. He also emphasizes his confidence in the radiative transfer method, which suggests a reduced energy flow to space when CO2 is added, and uses the MOTROn program to simulate the infrasound behavior of the CO2 spectrum. Despite acknowledging potential questions about the method, Dengler believes it provides a good starting point for understanding IPCC's thinking. He also mentions that IPCC uses a unique planet model with an atmosphere consisting only of CO2, devoid of oxygen and nitrogen.
00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: “Deconstructing the Climate Narrative” | Tom Nelson Pod #234," Dengler discusses the greenhouse effect and its impact on Earth's temperature. He begins by stating that the greenhouse effect, as described in IPCC publications, is based on an unrealistic scenario with no water vapor, clouds, or Earth's surface reflection. Under these conditions, doubling CO2 from pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per million (ppm) to 560 ppm results in a temperature decrease instead of an increase. Dengler then suggests a more realistic scenario with the Earth's surface reflecting light and pushing it back into space, resulting in an insulation of 297.5 watts per square meter. In this case, increasing CO2 from zero to 280 ppm results in a forcing of 27 watts per square meter, which is compensated by a temperature increase of 7 degrees. However, Dengler notes that these scenarios are unrealistic as they do not account for water vapor, clouds, and Earth's surface reflection.
00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234," Dengler discusses the greenhouse effect and the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system to CO2. He explains that only 70% of solar energy reaches the Earth's surface, and 30% is reflected back into space. The accepted value for solar insulation is 240 watts per square meter. With pre-industrial CO2 levels and a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius, the CO2 forcing is not -3.77 but only -2 watts, which is compensated by half a degree of warming. Therefore, the CO2 sensitivity is not 0.8 degrees but 0.5 degrees. Dengler also mentions that solar installations reflecting back 30% of the light to space are not relevant for warming, reducing the greenhouse effect from 3.7 watts per square meter to 2 watts per square meter. This corresponds to approximately half the values reported by the IPCC. Dengler acknowledges that the atmosphere has warmed by 3 degrees since pre-industrial times due to CO2, but he emphasizes the need to correct the mainstream sensitivity narrative and consider positive feedbacks and tipping points leading to catastrophic consequences.
00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234," Dengler discusses the water vapor feedback in the context of climate change. He explains that when air temperature increases, it can take up 6% more water vapor. This process is a two-step feedback mechanism. First, air can absorb more water vapor when it gets warmer. Second, additional moisture in the air reduces outgoing infrared radiation due to water vapor absorption. Dengler uses a modeling program to calculate the total feedback effect. Starting with a standard atmosphere, he adjusts the relative moisture to 80% and the clouds to approximate real-world radiation levels. By adding 6% to the relative moisture, he observes a decrease in infrared radiation of 7 watts per square meter and an increase in ground temperature by 9 degrees Celsius to balance the radiation. This means a 6% humidity rise causes a greenhouse effect of 1 degree Celsius.
00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234," Dengler discusses the feedback factor of the Earth's climate system, which is often cited as a significant contributor to global warming. He explains that the feedback factor is actually a geometric series with a total feedback of 1.23 degrees Celsius, and using James Hansen's greenhouse effect estimate of 8 degrees Celsius with feedback, the total greenhouse effect since industrialization would only be around half a degree. Dengler then addresses the common argument that there has been warming since 1900, and he shares an experiment he conducted using temperature and sunshine duration data from Germany's meteorological service. He found that 90% of the temperature variability in Germany could be explained by latitude-weighted Sun hours, and there was no measurable greenhouse effect in the data. Dengler concludes by suggesting that this could be an interesting area of research to explore further.
00:55:00 In this section of the podcast, Joachim Dengler discusses his investigation into the reduction of worldwide cloud cover over the last 30 years and the resulting impact on global warming. According to Dengler's research, there has been an 8 watts per square meter decrease in cloud cover over the past decade, while CO2 forcing was only 2 watts per square meter in the same timeframe. Therefore, he concludes that at least 80% of the warming has been caused by cloud changes and at most 20% by CO2. Dengler also acknowledges the difficulty in understanding what causes fluctuations in clouds and when they might reverse, potentially leading to more or less cloud cover. He shares his personal experience growing up in an area with high levels of aerosols, which can act as seeds for cloud formation, and suggests that aerosols may play a role in cloud formation and subsequent warming or cooling effects.

01:00:00 - 01:15:00

In the "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234" YouTube video, Joachim Dengler discusses various complexities in understanding climate science, including historical air pollution and aerosols, ocean currents and clouds, and the natural carbon cycle. He expresses concern over the lack of good mathematics for studying turbulent currents and clouds, and the importance of addressing these factors in climate science. Dengler also mentions the role of biology as a carbon sink and the significance of the ocean as a carbon store. He acknowledges the challenges in making definitive statements about the role of clouds in the climate system and anticipates solid research from John Clauser. Dengler also discusses the natural carbon cycle, explaining that oceans have acted as carbon stores for centuries and that they would become sources if CO2 concentrations drop below 200 TPM. He shares an observation about the Pinatubo eruption creating a deep carbon sink due to increased photosynthesis caused by indirect insolation.

01:00:00 In this section of the podcast, Joachim Dengler discusses the historical presence of air pollution and aerosols, particularly in industrialized countries during the 1960s and 70s. He mentions the implementation of catalytic converters in cars, which reduced sulfur emissions, and the impact of the 9/11 attacks on air quality due to the absence of airplane emissions. Dengler also touches upon the recent temperature rise and theories suggesting that the cleaning of filters in container ships could be contributing to the warming trend. He acknowledges that these are just hints and calls for further research. Dengler also mentions a YouTube video by Thomas Caldwell arguing that the oceans quickly absorb anthropogenic CO2 gas and form calcium carbonate, either organically or inorganically. Dengler expresses that this is a complex discussion, as the Burn team argues that the diffusion process into the deep ocean is slow, but ocean currents and marine biota are significant factors that are often overlooked in mainstream discussions.
01:05:00 In this section of the podcast, Joachim Dengler discusses the complexity of understanding ocean currents and clouds in the context of climate science. He expresses concern that difficult questions related to turbulent currents and clouds are often evaded due to the lack of good mathematics for their study. Dengler mentions his co-author John Reed's work on ocean currents and the importance of addressing these factors, which are not continuous circulations but turbulent currents. He also touches upon the complexity of clouds and the various theories surrounding them, acknowledging the challenges in making definitive statements about their role in the climate system. Dengler expresses his anticipation for a sound scientific paper from John Clauser on this topic, given his Nobel Prize and commitment to producing solid research. He also addresses those who argue that the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations does not come from anthropogenic emissions, stating that if one accepts biological emissions as a contributing factor, every atom released through human or animal respiration would have to be accounted for in the carbon cycle.
01:10:00 In this section of the "Joachim Dengler: ‘Deconstructing the Climate Narrative’ | Tom Nelson Pod #234" YouTube video, Joachim Dengler discusses the role of carbon in biology and the natural carbon cycle. He explains that biology is a carbon sink by definition and that oceans have acted as carbon stores for centuries. Dengler also mentions that the current higher concentration of CO2 means oceans are acting as sinks, but if concentrations drop below 200 TPM, they would become sources. He adds that natural disasters like forest fires could cause carbon emissions, but as long as nature is in balance, this is negligible. Dengler also shares an interesting observation about the Pinatubo eruption, which created a deep carbon sink due to increased photosynthesis caused by indirect insolation.
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