Summary of Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions : Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Joseph Fournier, a private sector research scientist, discusses various aspects of carbon cycling, deep water circulation, and the relationship between CO2 emissions, ocean temperatures, and geological processes. He presents an illustration of the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere, focusing on the role of mid-ocean spreading zone seismic activity as a proxy for geochemical exchange. Fournier challenges the mainstream argument that human activities are the primary drivers of CO2 concentration increases, presenting data showing a strong correlation between CO2 emissions and isotopic ratio, with both exhibiting higher variability in the northern hemisphere. He also discusses the importance of considering the full carbon cycle, including the role of deep water circulation and ocean productivity, in understanding CO2 emissions and climate forcing. Fournier emphasizes the significance of natural variability, such as El Niño events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in driving changes in the global average air temperature. He calls for further investigation into the relationship between CO2 emissions, ocean temperatures, and geological processes.

00:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Joseph Fournier introduces himself as a private sector research scientist with a background in environmental sciences and the oil industry. He has recently shifted his focus to ranching and writing, while also conducting research with Dr. Henry Mason on Ando-related climate phenomena. Fournier presents an illustration he created to represent the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, focusing on the lithosphere and geochemical exchange between the lithosphere and deep water in the oceans. The illustration includes latitude versus altitude or depth, with hydrothermal vents and volcanic activity represented. The far right of the illustration shows concentration on the horizontal and vertical axes, with tropospheric CO2 concentration in the top right corner and the isotopic ratio of carbon to carbon 12 in the ocean. Fournier explains that this illustration contains a lot of information and will unravel some of these things while emphasizing the role of mid-ocean spreading zone seismic activity as a proxy for geochemical exchange. He mentions that his research aligns with a significant body of existing research, with the main difference being the emphasis on mid-ocean spreading zone seismic activity.
00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," the speaker discusses the time scales of bottom water transit time and the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in relation to carbon cycling. The speaker notes that estimates for bottom water transit time range from 2 to 3,000 years, and highlights a study by Levi et al. (2013) that shows physical and biological exchanges between ocean depths. The study does not indicate any interaction or contribution from the lithosphere, but suggests that up to 300 billion tons of carbonic acid are brought up into the well-mixed surface layer every year. The speaker finds it surprising that only a very small fraction of this carbonic acid is off-gassed, and moves on to criticize the study for not considering the full carbon cycle and the role of the lithosphere. The speaker then introduces data from another presenter, showing the meridional overturning circulation, to further emphasize the importance of considering the full carbon cycle in understanding CO2 emissions and climate forcing.
00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," the speaker discusses the findings from nitrate deep water nitrate concentration and carbon 14 isotope analysis in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. The carbon 14 isotopic data suggest that deep water from the North Atlantic takes thousands of years to upwell in the Eastern Pacific. Additionally, the nitrate concentrations in deep water along this transit path increase over time due to organic carbon like algae, fish, and whales being mineralized by microbes and other life forms. Dr. Vinter's research correlates current measurements of modern climate change with mid-ocean spreading Ridge seismic activity changes over the last 30 or 40 years. The most seismically active region on the planet, where we have the highest upwelling rates, is also where we see the highest spreading rates. The speaker also mentions the Keeling Curve and its orbital forcing associated with the seasonal cycle, with a higher amplitude in the northern hemisphere versus the southern hemisphere. By applying a 12-month rolling average and a month-over-month difference function to the data, the speaker obtains the tropospheric growth rate, which represents the rate of change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
00:15:00 In this section of the "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221" YouTube video, Fournier discusses the alignment of CO2 emissions and isotopic ratio time series, challenging the mainstream argument that human activities are the primary drivers of CO2 concentration increases. The data shows a strong correlation between CO2 emissions and the isotopic ratio, with both exhibiting higher variability in the northern hemisphere. The isotopic ratio's decrease towards more negative values is not due to an increase in carbon 12 relative to carbon 13, but rather the occurrence of Lina events, which are cooling phases in the Pacific TRC, acting as the driver behind the interannual variability of this parameter.
00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Fournier discusses the relationship between deep water circulation, carbon isotopes, and the tropospheric CO2 growth rate. He explains that during El Niño events, Walker circulation increases, causing deep water enriched in carbonic acid to reach the surface. This enriched water absorbs carbon from the surface, resulting in a positive delta 13c ratio in the top 1,000 meters. However, as you go deeper, the total dissolved carbon dioxide is depleted at the surface and enriched at depth. Fournier suggests that the upwelling of deep water is likely responsible for the inverted time series trends of the tropospheric CO2 growth rate and the isotopic ratios of CO2. He cites a study by Chatterjee et al. (2017) as evidence of this relationship during a major El Niño event.
00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Walker circulation, a combination of wind speeds and thermocline gradients, is discussed in relation to CO2 off-gassing. Under normal conditions, strong winds and steep thermocline gradients result in increased CO2 off-gassing. However, during Alino conditions, the easterly winds weaken, causing a decrease in CO2 off-gassing due to reduced upwelling. A study by Tedar et al. supports this finding, suggesting that decreasing deep water during Alino events leads to a significant reduction in the CO2 off-gassing flux rate across the tropical sea surface area in the Pacific. This is surprising as Henry's Law states that rising sea surface temperatures should lead to increased CO2 off-gassing due to decreased solubility. Data from NOAA shows that in non-Elino conditions, both the fugacity and CO2 flux rates are significantly positive over the Eastern Pacific region, while during the Elino condition of October 1997 to April 1998, these values collapsed and even went somewhat negative, indicating CO2 absorption. The studies mentioned in the video provide evidence that the relationship between CO2 off-gassing and sea surface temperature is more complex than previously thought.
00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Joseph Fournier discusses the relationship between sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and carbon dioxide absorption in the Pacific Tropics. He explains that during El Niño events, positive sea surface temperatures lead to the collapse of easterly wind speeds, causing deep water upwelling and the absorption of CO2 in the Eastern Pacific Tropics and the cold tongue region. Fournier includes a study to illustrate the overturning cells and the importance of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as the area source for CO2 emissions. He emphasizes that the correlation of tropospheric growth rate measurements at widely separated stations suggests a shared area source and the importance of understanding the atmospheric and oceanic circulation coupling, represented by the Gars, in both hemispheres.
00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," the speaker discusses the role of deep water upwelling in carbon dioxide (CO2) transport and ocean productivity. He explains that the most acidic water on the planet is found in the regions with the largest upwelling of cold deep water, such as the Eastern Tropics. This is due to the upwelling effect of carbonic acid-enriched deep water, which then cycles CO2 back into the ocean. The speaker also highlights a study showing that during El Niño transitions, deep water upwelling leads to increased productivity in the Pacific Ocean, contradicting the common narrative about the dangers of ocean acidification. The speaker then discusses a study from Geophysical Research Letters 2015, which compares Milankovich Cycles and the Southeastern Pacific Rise bimmetry, emphasizing the importance of long-term trends in understanding CO2 trends and ocean dynamics.
00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Fournier discusses the correlation between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, ocean temperatures, and geological processes. According to Fournier, data shows that during the transition from a deep glacial maximum to a holocene thermal maximum, CO2 suddenly rose, and the bimmetry in the Eastern Pacific region also rose in a step-locked phase. He believes this is due to a lithospheric process where material accumulates on the ocean bottom, and as it is pushed out of the mid-ocean ridge spreading zone into the deep water, CO2 off-gases and rises in the atmosphere. Additionally, the Antarctic circumpolar circulation (ACC), the largest westerly-driven ocean current on the planet, has shown a marked positive transition during the holocene thermal maximum and the transition from a deep glacial maximum. The ACC's role in exchanging deep water and surface water with all the oceans is significant, and Fournier suggests that changes in tropospheric CO2 concentration, atmospheric circulation, currents, and lithosphere activity are all coupled.
00:45:00 In this section of the "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221" YouTube video, the speaker discusses the relationship between Pacific Ocean upwelling rates, tropical sea surface temperatures, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The speaker explains that an easterly deceleration, which represents a decline in upwelling rates and surface warming, occurred in the mid-1990s. This deceleration is linked to a negative PDO state, which accelerated the Pacific easterlies significantly around that time. Additionally, seismic activity in the mid-ocean spreading zones increased around 1995, leading to a major trend change. The speaker also presents data showing a correlation between CO2 emissions and Pacific easterly wind speeds, with a notable increase in CO2 emissions after the 1995 seismic activity. Cross-correlation analysis of CO2 derivatives at both poles and the Pacific trade wind speed further supports this correlation.
00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Joseph Fournier discusses the lack of temporal lag between CO2 emissions and their detection at monitoring stations, suggesting that the transport times are very fast and there is no lag on a monthly basis. He explains that the changes occurring in the atmosphere from the time CO2 is off-gassed in the Intertropical Convergence Zone to the time it is detected at higher latitude monitoring stations are transported and ripple out quickly, with time scales faster than one month. Fournier also highlights the dominance of the Walker circulation in natural variability and its impact on sea surface temperatures across the entire Pacific Basin. He shows that when deceleration occurs in the Pacific easterly winds, it triggers an El Niño to form, with a lag between the cause and effect occurring over approximately 30 years. Fournier emphasizes that this natural variability plays a significant role in driving changes in the global average air temperature.
00:55:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Fournier discusses the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), global air temperature anomaly, and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. He explains that the global air temperature anomaly is an anti-derivative, while the derivative of temperature is the instantaneous slope, which is the global air temperature. According to Fournier, there is a six-month lag between the first derivative of global air temperature and its anti-derivative, implying that the peak rate of change in global air temperature will lead the peak in CO2 concentration. He also emphasizes the importance of considering geochemical exchange rates between deep water and the lithosphere as a factor in understanding CO2 concentrations. Fournier expresses skepticism towards the mainstream explanation that the time dependence of tropospheric CO2 is entirely due to human activities and calls for further investigation into this topic. When asked about the percentage of CO2 increase caused by humans, Fournier did not provide a definitive answer.

01:00:00 - 01:05:00

In the YouTube video "Joseph Fournier: CO2 Emissions: Climate forcing or effect? | Nelson Pod #221," Fournier discusses the challenges of accurately measuring and calculating CO2 flux rates due to the constantly changing atmospheric and oceanic circulation rates. He also expresses skepticism about predicting future temperature trends based on UAH data, suggesting that natural variability in high latitude locations and potential subharmonics of the seasonal cycle could play a significant role in climate phenomena. Fournier invites listeners to engage in further discussion on LinkedIn about the uncertainty surrounding the prediction of global tropical movements based on solar activity.