Summary of Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236

00:00:00 - 00:35:00

In the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," Javier Vinós discusses the record-breaking global warming in 2023, which was the largest temperature anomaly on record, with almost the entire globe experiencing above-average warming. Vinós argues that this warming is a natural event that will resolve itself in a few years, despite the UN and climate scientists promoting the climate emergency agenda. The warming was particularly significant in the North Atlantic, where an unprecedented heatwave occurred, and the Earth's oceans showed an accentuated warming since January, continuing to warm in June and July, reaching an annual maximum in August. Scientists, such as Gavin Schmidt of NASA's Climate Monitoring Institute, suggest that this anomaly could indicate that the planet's climate system is altering faster than anticipated. However, Schmidt dismisses certain factors, such as El Niño, as possible explanations due to the unprecedented nature of the global warming event. Instead, it is possible that the ocean warming that began in March 2023 may have caused the 2024 El Niño by weakening the winds in the equatorial Pacific. Vinós also discusses the possibility that the reduction in sulfur emissions from marine fuels since 2020 could have contributed to the record warming in 2023 but finds it difficult to believe that this reduction could have been a major factor in the abrupt warming. Instead, he suggests that an extremely unusual volcanic eruption in Tonga, which occurred in January 2022, is more likely to have caused the record warming. The Tonga eruption was a submarine explosion at very shallow depths, ejecting 150 million tons of water into the stratosphere, making it a once-in-200-year event. Vinós emphasizes the unpredictability of volcanic eruptions and their impact on climate, expressing doubt about the ability to predict their frequency and timing. He also discusses the potential impact of a volcanic event on global food supplies, noting that while such an event could lead to food shortages and price increases, the ability to transport food from one region to another would allow for better management of the situation compared to the past. The conversation then concludes with Vinós expressing that he has covered the main points he wanted to discuss.

• 00:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," Javier Vinós, the guest speaker, discusses the exceptional natural climate event that caused the record-breaking warmest year in 2023, which is likely to be surpassed by 2024. Despite the UN and climate scientists promoting the climate emergency agenda, Vinós argues that the warming is a natural event that will resolve itself in a few years. The 2023 record-breaking warming was the largest margin in records, with almost the entire globe experiencing above-average warming. The North Atlantic experienced an unprecedented heatwave, and the Earth's oceans showed an accentuated warming since January, continuing to warm in June and July, reaching an annual maximum in August, something that has never happened before. The warming through August was staggering, with about 0.33 degrees Celsius above the 2016 record, and the ocean still being about 0.2 degrees warmer than it should be in June 2024. Despite crossing the dangerous warming threshold, authorities emphasize that the global temperature is not the temperature of one year but the temperature trend of the last 30 years, which is expected to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius in ten years.
• 00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," scientists discuss the unprecedented temperature anomaly that occurred in 2023, which they refer to as "uncharted territory." Gavin Schmidt of NASA's Climate Monitoring Institute explains that this anomaly, much larger than anticipated, could indicate that the planet's climate system is already fundamentally altering faster than anticipated. However, Schmidt dismisses certain factors, such as El Niño, as possible explanations due to the unprecedented nature of the global warming event. The data suggests that the temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, which primarily affects that region, does correspond to strong El Niño events, but the correlation fails in some instances. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), another long-term climate pattern, also shows a significant anomaly in 2023, with the PDO remaining in a negative phase during El Niño, which is unprecedented and rules out El Niño as the cause of the abrupt warming. Instead, it is possible that the ocean warming that began in March 2023 may have caused the 2024 El Niño by weakening the winds in the equatorial Pacific.
• 00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," Javier Vinós discusses the possibility that the reduction in sulfur emissions from marine fuels since 2020 could have contributed to the record warming in 2023. However, he finds it difficult to believe that this reduction could have been a major factor in the abrupt warming, as the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere has only increased by about 0.6% since then. Instead, Vinós suggests that an extremely unusual volcanic eruption in Tonga, which occurred in January 2022, is more likely to have caused the record warming. The Tonga eruption was a submarine explosion at very shallow depths, ejecting 150 million tons of water into the stratosphere. NASA scientists believe that this depth made it possible for the eruption to project a lot of water into the stratosphere, making it a once-in-200-year event. The delayed effects of strong volcanic eruptions on the climate can be significant and can last for several years. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had a global effect on the climate, but its effects were not felt until 15 months later. The delayed effects of the Tonga eruption may still be unfolding.
• 00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," Javier Vinós discusses the unprecedented Tonga volcano eruption and its potential impact on global warming. The eruption released large amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere, which can have significant effects on the Earth's climate due to the stratosphere's dryness and lack of greenhouse gas saturation. The warming caused by this event did not appear in the northern hemisphere until a year later, in 2023, and scientists believe that dynamical events in the stratosphere may have contributed to the abrupt warming at that time. Despite the models' inability to explain this anomalous warming, Vinós argues that the Tonga volcano is the most likely suspect, as the greenhouse effect suggests that significant and abrupt warming should result from such a volcanic event. However, some scientists argue against this theory without evidence, potentially undermining the message that natural factors can contribute to climate change. The UN Secretary-General has recently reported that May 2024 was the hottest May on record, marking 12 consecutive months of record-breaking heat. The UN and other organizations emphasize the need to reduce global emissions to keep the 1.5-degree limit alive, using the unusual warming as a reminder of the urgency of the situation.
• 00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," Spencer discusses the natural climate variability and its impact on global temperature anomalies. The trend in global temperature is calculated using linear regression, and while some scientists believe that human activity contributes to it, others argue that natural variability plays a significant role. The speaker emphasizes that natural variability, including volcanic eruptions, oceanic oscillations, and solar cycles, causes some years to be above or below the trend. Every scientist acknowledges this natural variability, and the years above the trend, which are newsworthy, will eventually be compensated by years below the trend. However, scientists and the United Nations are using the current natural climate event to push their agenda, implying an emergency when there isn't one. The speaker questions their credibility, suggesting that if they are lying about the natural variability, their claims about the long-term trend's human contribution could also be in doubt.
• 00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," Javier Vinós discusses the ongoing climate debate and the role of the Tonga volcano in recent warming trends. He explains that the stratospheric water vapor caused by the volcano may take several years to settle, leading to warmer temperatures in the coming years. However, he expects temperatures to decrease after 2024. Vinós also mentions that the global temperature record starts from a lower point after a cooling period in the late 1940s to the mid-1970s, and the warming since then should not be as severe as predicted. He also asserts that natural causes, not human aerosols, were responsible for the cooling during that period. Vinós criticizes scientists for not acknowledging the impact of the Tonga volcano on recent warming trends, suggesting they are hesitant to admit something they are not certain about.
• 00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," Javier Vinós discusses the unpredictability of volcanic eruptions and their impact on climate. He mentions that while scientists cannot definitively attribute the 2015 Tonga eruption to record-breaking temperatures, they can rule out oceanic oscillations and human effects. Vinós expresses doubt about the ability to predict volcanic eruptions and their frequency, suggesting that a year without a summer is quite rare, occurring maybe once every 7,500 years. He also explains that the timing of a volcanic eruption affects its impact on climate, with tropical eruptions causing a warmer winter in the Northern Hemisphere. If another volcanic eruption as strong as Tambora were to occur, humanity would face significant challenges, as food production could be affected in many areas, leading to a rough year.
• 00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236," Javier Vinós discusses the potential impact of a volcanic event on global food supplies. He notes that while such an event could lead to food shortages and price increases, the ability to transport food from one region to another would allow for better management of the situation compared to the past. Vinós also expresses skepticism about the likelihood of two consecutive summers being missed due to volcanic activity, suggesting that things would likely settle out faster in the modern era. The conversation then concludes with Vinós expressing that he has covered the main points he wanted to discuss.