Summary of #31 - Michael Kelly: An engineer shows us what net zero would really mean

00:00:00 - 00:50:00

In this video, engineer Michael Kelly discusses the challenges and limitations of achieving a net-zero future in the UK. He notes the high costs associated with retrofitting buildings and upgrading the electrical grid, and highlights the enormous amount of materials required for renewable energy technologies. He also suggests that the rush towards net-zero could decrease living standards, and recommends a more realistic, adaptive approach. Nevertheless, Kelly stresses the importance of a clear road map and collaboration to successfully transition to sustainable energy for the future.

• 00:00:00 In this section, Michael Kelly, a New Zealander and retired physicist, talks about his background and how he got interested in the field of net zero. He explains that his interest peaked when he became a scientific advisor for a UK government department that controlled building codes and regulations related to communities and local government. Michael Kelly was keen to reduce carbon emissions and discovered that around 45% of all CO2 missions in the UK are produced by heating air and water in buildings. He also talks about his work on a course called "Present and Future Energy Systems" where he taught students about how the UK is energized now and how it might be in 2050. Additionally, Michael Kelly discusses the current dilemma faced by the UK government in achieving net zero carbon emissions and mentions the impact of increasing energy prices and the need for practical solutions instead of ideological viewpoints.
• 00:05:00 In this section, the speaker provides background information about himself and sets up a hypothetical scenario where he has been appointed the CEO of a delivery agency to achieve net zero emissions economy by 2050 in the United Kingdom. He outlines three necessary projects that need to be completed by 2015 to achieve this goal, including electrifying ground transport, decarbonizing electric heat for both commercial and domestic use, and expanding the electricity sector for the previous projects. The speaker notes that these projects are necessary but not sufficient for a net-zero economy, as there are other areas that need addressing such as agriculture and air transport. He also emphasizes that his scoping exercise focuses on engineering rather than economics. Finally, the speaker showcases a slide highlighting the energy consumption in the UK and the need to convert all internal combustion engines to electrical engines.
• 00:10:00 In this section of the video, engineer Michael Kelly discusses the expansion of the electrical grid and its capacity to meet the demands of electrification. Kelly explains that electric vehicles are three times more efficient than internal combustion engines, and therefore two-thirds of the grid will be needed to provide all the electricity required for ground transport. During the winter, peak demand for electric heat is significant, and if electrical heat was provided by radiant heat, three times the grid's existing size would be required. An assumption is made that the heat would come from heat pumps, which means the entire existing grid would need to be used. Regarding the United States, Kelly notes that air conditioning is more significant there and that 60% of electricity is provided by fossil fuels. Finally, Kelly explains that expanding the grid capacity by 1.7 times is needed for electrification, which is eight times the average capacity investment in the UK over the last 30 years.
• 00:15:00 In this section, engineer Michael Kelly discusses the potential re-wiring of the electrical distribution system in the UK due to the increased power consumption of all-electric homes. The current 60 amp fuse, which was set 70 years ago, is not sufficient for all-electric homes that may draw more than 60 amps causing fused appliances. This means the whole distribution system will have to be rewired, and scaling up the use of renewables and batteries isn't scalable enough to meet peak demand, which means additional 150 gigawatts of energy will have to be installed. The total cost of all these factors, as estimated by Kelly, could be around 700 billion pounds, and this cost will have to be taken into account to achieve Net Zero.
• 00:20:00 In this section, the video's engineer guest, Michael Kelly, discusses the unrealistic expectations for energy storage as a solution to powering a net zero future. His assessment is that the largest available pump storage capacity in the UK is insufficient to power the country for longer than 15 minutes in the summer and 10 minutes in the winter. Comparing this to hospitals' backup power supplies, he points out that batteries simply cannot effectively or cost-efficiently fulfill the necessary energy demands, with a single day of power loss costing 180 to 1 compared to diesel generators. Furthermore, Kelly asserts that the idea of using EV batteries as backup power sources is unrealistic since peak demand occurs in winter, and people will not tolerate the risk of having low battery levels when they are needed the most.
• 00:25:00 In this section, Michael Kelly discusses the challenges of achieving a net-zero future, highlighting the problems of energy storage, infrastructure, and retrofitting housing. He presents a graph comparing the energy density of different fuels, emphasizing the potential of nuclear fission and fusion. However, he notes that there are still issues to be resolved before these technologies can be fully implemented. Kelly goes on to discuss the difficulties of retrofitting buildings for energy efficiency, citing a government pilot project that only achieved a 60% reduction in carbon emissions, with most houses failing to meet the 80% target. He notes the high cost of labor and bespoke solutions required for each house, suggesting that a competitive retrofit sector and efficient supply chains may help reduce costs in the future.
• 00:30:00 In this section, Michael Kelly discusses the enormity of the challenge faced in achieving net-zero emissions in the UK. He notes that replacing the grid and improving the housing stock alone would cost £4 trillion. Furthermore, there is not enough workforce with necessary skills to deliver the projects, with 42,000 electrical engineers required just for the 1.4 trillion cost associated with the grid. For retrofitting alone, the workforce would have to be around 500,000 people working full-time for 30 years. Kelly highlights the additional challenge of the renewable energy transition, which would require an increased amount of precious materials, with factors approaching one thousand times greater than previous energy technologies.
• 00:35:00 In this section, Michael Kelly discusses the enormous amount of materials needed for wind turbines and electric vehicles, as well as the costs associated with transitioning to renewable energy sources. He explains that the UK alone would need over 200,000 tons of cobalt, which is double the world's annual production, and over 264,000 tons of lithium carbonate, making up 75% of the world's production. These numbers would need to increase tenfold to achieve net-zero emissions globally. Additionally, the cost of energy projects and retrofitting homes and buildings would be extremely expensive, with estimates in the trillions of dollars. Kelly also shows that the world's energy consumption and population growth suggest that a middle-class majority will be achieved by 2050, emphasizing the importance of making sustainable energy accessible to everyone.
• 00:40:00 In this section, Michael Kelly discusses the increase in energy consumption and the use of fossil fuels in the world. He shows a curve of the total amount of energy used in the world since 1880, with the contribution of energy from fossil fuels over that period. The implication is that fossil fuels will still make up 79% of the energy mix in 2050. Michael Kelly believes that decarbonizing the world would be very expensive, costing over half a million dollars per household if the U.S, UK, and Europe paid for it all. Instead, he suggests focusing on climate change adaptation, which is a more sensible goal rather than climate mitigation. Kelly uses the Thames Barrier in London as an example of how investing in infrastructure can prevent damages from climate change in the long run.
• 00:45:00 In this section, Michael Kelly argues that abandoning cities due to the threat of climate change is a waste of resources, citing Wellington as an example. He suggests building a high wall to combat rising sea levels that would only cost around 300 million US dollars for a one-meter strip. Additionally, he proposes that a state insurance policy for climate change adaptation could be implemented, similar to the one used for earthquakes in New Zealand, which has been successful in gathering funds. Kelly stresses the importance of a road map, citing the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors as an example of successful collaborative planning that has kept the IT industry on track for 40 years. He argues that a road map for achieving net zero is necessary for society to make the transition successfully.
• 00:50:00 In this section, Michael Kelly discusses his belief that the rush to NetZero by 2050 will cause more problems than it solves and that projections based on the climate RC 8.5 are too pessimistic. He suggests that NetZero is an unattainable pipe dream without a major national commitment and a command economy, which would decrease living standards. Instead, he recommends repealing the Net Zero act and replacing it with a more realistic target. Additionally, he notes that the academies have been absent from the debate, implying that they understand the true horrors of the situation. Finally, he comments on his belief that the idea that climate change is an imminent global catastrophe is not borne out by the data, and that the rush to NetZero will cause more people to be in poverty.