Summary of Tom Shula: A Novel Perspective on the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #98

00:00:00 - 00:40:00

Physicist Tom Shula presents a unique perspective on climate change by questioning the assumptions behind the greenhouse effect. He believes that the role of radiation in heat transport has been overestimated, and instead suggests that the contributions of conduction and convection must be considered. Shula's use of a Pirani gauge demonstrates that radiation accounts for less than one percent of heat transport at pressures relevant to the lower atmosphere, suggesting that the greenhouse effect may not represent reality. He proposes that weather and evapotranspiration are alternative explanations for the Earth's temperature and that the climate realist community needs to focus on falsifying the greenhouse effect as an invalid hypothesis. Shula also believes that water vapor carries more significance in heat transfer than radiation, and the fear of carbon needs to be put into perspective.

• 00:00:00 In this section, physicist Tom Shula discusses his unique approach to tackling the issue of climate change. Rather than debating the details of actual versus model results, Shula focuses on the root cause of the issue, believing that the assumptions behind the greenhouse effect are fundamentally incorrect. He presents a novel perspective on the greenhouse effect based on his work with heat loss vacuum gauges, which he believes can teach us about energy balance in the lower atmosphere. Shula analyzes a NASA diagram of energy balance in the atmosphere, pointing out the discrepancy between the amount of energy absorbed and emitted by the Earth's surface, which he attributes to the greenhouse effect. He also discusses the concept of back radiation, which he believes is a false concept.
• 00:05:00 In this section, Tom Shula explains the fundamental problem with the modeling of the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect. He mentions the three mechanisms that are available to transport heat - radiation, conduction, and convection. Radiation is the primary driver of transporting heat from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere, and the back radiation component is necessary to make the model agree with observations. Tom questions where NASA gets their values for conduction, convection, and latent heat, and suggests that they estimate these numbers to balance the way they like for them to turn out. He also discusses the upwelling radiation from the surface and how it is NASA's claim that it is 398 watts per square meter.
• 00:10:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of understanding the contributions of conduction, convection, and radiation to heat transport in the atmosphere. The speaker compares the radiation component claimed by NASA to the convection component claimed by NASA and explains that in the climate models, radiation is assumed to be the primary mechanism of heat transport. However, to measure the actual relative contributions of conduction and convection versus radiation, the speaker introduces the Pirani gauge, an instrument that was designed over a hundred years ago to reliably measure vacuum in a light bulb factory. The Pirani gauge works by heating a sensor wire to maintain a constant temperature and measuring the amount of power absorbed by the gas versus how much power is lost to radiation.
• 00:15:00 In this section, Tom Shula explains the results of an experiment using a Pirani gauge to measure the balance of radiative losses and other leakage losses in relation to pressure. The experiment found that at atmospheric pressure, the contribution of radiation to heat loss was only 0.4 milliwatts, while losses to gas accounted for 99.6 percent of the power that goes into the filament. The greenhouse effect model, on the other hand, suggests that radiation accounts for over 95 percent of the contribution and conduction and convection for less than 4.5 percent. Shula argues that experimentally, the pirani gauge demonstrates that conduction and convection are overwhelming relative to the radiation component at near atmospheric pressure, suggesting that the greenhouse effect model may not represent reality.
• 00:20:00 In this section, Tom Shula discusses the Pirani gauge and how it provides a way to measure the relative contributions of radiation versus conduction and convection in a gaseous environment. He explains that the performance of the Pirani gauge indicates that radiation accounts for less than one percent of heat transport at pressures relevant to the lower atmosphere. Therefore, if the greenhouse effect exists, it plays an insignificant role in heat transport in the lower atmosphere. Additionally, he argues that there is no scientific evidence for anthropogenic global warming since radiation is a minor player in the Earth's atmosphere as far as heat transport is concerned. Instead, he proposes that weather, which is the chaotic process by which the Earth loses its excess heat, and evapotranspiration are the alternative explanation for why the temperature of the Earth is what it is.
• 00:25:00 In this section, Tom Shula discusses the efficiency of conduction from the impinging molecules in the atmosphere, which remove heat faster than radiation alone. He explains how introducing even a small amount of air can cool a hot substrate very quickly. Shula also points out that neither the Earth's surface nor its atmosphere can be treated as black bodies due to the zero K restriction, which modern climate models assume. He states that the greenhouse effect and radiative forcing applied to climate change only exist in models and do not represent the real dynamics of heat transfer in the atmosphere. He argues that the climate realist community needs to shift its focus to falsifying the greenhouse effect as an invalid hypothesis, as the laws of physics do not support it. Shula also suggests that the concept of warming due to gases in the atmosphere only gained traction in the modern era due to potential government funding and the creation of a continuing crisis.
• 00:30:00 In this section, Tom Shula discusses his views on other individuals who also believe that the greenhouse effect might be zero, including Marcus Ott, Kevin Kirchman, Howard Hayden, and Young Zhang. Shula reveals that he has watched all of their presentations and finds their work to be valuable in disproving the greenhouse theory. He thinks there are many paths to the answer and hopes that more people who understand this will speak up about it because discussing the issue has become so bad politically and socially. Furthermore, Shula explains that while water vapor and clouds are complex issues, he believes their significance lies in the energy content of the atmosphere rather than radiation.
• 00:35:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the important role of water vapor in heat transfer and how it carries heat with it when it rises into the upper atmosphere and condenses. He clarifies that he is not discounting the role of water vapor but wants to show that radiation is not a major player in terms of radiative heat loss from the planet's surface through the lower atmosphere. The speaker anticipates objections to his arguments and counters them by explaining the critical factor being what happens at the surface, and not what the volume or enclosure is. He also explains that conductive heat transfer happens over a very small distance and is happening constantly, taking energy from our body because our bodies are generally warmer than the surrounding atmosphere.
• 00:40:00 In this section, Tom Shula explains that the Pirani gauge is an extremely common instrument and virtually any system that semiconductors or thin film devices are processed in exists in a vacuum environment where the gauge would be present. He suggests that most college physics departments would likely have either a Pirani or a Thermocouple gauge already. Additionally, he mentions his opinion that the fear of carbon needs to be put into perspective, as carbon is a necessary part of the planet's existence, and we need to figure out how to work together to put an end to the ongoing madness related to carbon.