Summary of David Legates:The Case for Climate Realism | Tom Nelson Pod #211

00:00:00 - 00:55:00

In the "David Legates: The Case for Climate Realism" podcast episode 211 by Tom Nelson, David Legates discusses his new book "Climate and Energy: The Case for Realism," which presents a middle-ground perspective on climate change. Legates, who was heavily involved in the book's creation, shares his optimism that the American populace is starting to question extreme views on climate change. He also expresses concern over the potential backlash against climate change policies due to their impact on people's lives. The conversation then shifts to the disappearance of the "climate denial Roundup" newsletter and signs of waning climate change activism. Legates discusses the potential manipulation of temperature records and the role of natural variability and nonlinear dynamics in climate patterns. He also touches on the history of climate change predictions and the motivations behind the shift from global cooling to global warming concerns. Legates argues that natural phenomena like El Nino events and volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on temperature fluctuations, and the satellite temperature record is primarily influenced by these natural drivers. He criticizes climate models for overstating the warming effect of CO2 and producing unrealistic emission scenarios. Legates also discusses the importance of understanding the physics of cloud formation and rainfall and the need for more research on the topic.

• 00:00:00 In this section of the podcast, host Tom Nelson interviews David Legates about his new book "Climate and Energy: The Case for Realism." The book, published by Regnery Publishing, features contributions from various authors who present a middle-ground perspective on climate change. Legates explains that the title "realism" was chosen to counter the extreme views that climate change is a hoax or that humans are causing catastrophic damage to the planet. He was heavily involved in selecting the authors and was pleased with the outcome. Sales and reviews of the book have been positive, with Amazon ranking it highly in environmental policy. Legates also shares his general pessimism about the climate debate but expresses hope that the American populace is starting to question the dire predictions and proposed solutions, leading to a potential shift in the narrative.
• 00:05:00 In this section of the podcast, the host, Tom Nelson, discusses the sudden disappearance of the "climate denial Roundup," a newsletter that criticized climate change activism and research. The newsletter had been active for four years but suddenly stopped publishing in January 2023, and the host speculates that it may have run out of funding. Nelson also notes that he has seen other signs of climate change activism and advocacy waning, such as a decrease in mentions of climate change in reports from organizations like Black Rock and a shift in tone from prominent climate activists like Sabina Hassen Felder. The host then goes on to discuss the history of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the controversy surrounding the inclusion of the statement "a discernible human influence on the climate system" in the IPCC's reports. Nelson expresses his belief that the IPCC will continue to produce reports despite decreasing interest and funding, but questions the validity and credibility of the organization given its past controversies.
• 00:10:00 In this section of the podcast, David Legates discusses the potential backlash against climate change policies due to their increasing impact on people's lives. He mentions Delaware's net-zero emissions law and the resulting requirements for electric vehicle infrastructure and solar panels, which he believes will make building and living more difficult. Legates also touches on the issue of offshore wind energy and the impact it could have on beaches. He expresses concern that people will start to "revolt" against these mandates as they begin to affect them personally. Legates also reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people's trust in experts and their willingness to question government overreach, and he wonders if this skepticism will extend to climate change policies. He also questions the motivation of scientists in the field, suggesting that some may be driven by the desire for high-profile roles or the allure of being a climatologist.
• 00:15:00 In this section of the podcast, David Legates discusses his observations about the National Climate Assessment and the involvement of climate scientists. He was surprised to find that many big names were absent from the list of reviewers, with most being graduate students or newly minted PhDs. Legates explains that established scientists, who have been working in the field for a long time, don't need to add the assessment to their CVs, as it may not benefit them. Instead, they let the younger scientists take on the task, which can serve as a valuable CV booster for them. Legates also mentions that some scientists may be hesitant to be associated with extreme views, especially if they fear damaging their reputations. He also shares his perspective on the US Global Change Research Program and ICF, an organization that employs many climate scientists, and how it operates within the federal government.
• 00:20:00 In this section of the podcast, David Legates discusses the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and its role in shaping climate change policies within the US government. The USGCRP, which manages the website "Globalchange.gov" and produces the annual report "Our Changing Planet," is responsible for coordinating and authoring the National Climate Assessment. Legates points out that the director of the National Climate Assessment is affiliated with the White House and works with various government agencies, including the EPA and Council on Environmental Quality. He criticizes the lack of transparency and accountability surrounding this organization, which has a significant budget and significant influence on climate change policies. Legates also expresses concern about the lack of change in administration personnel and the need for a "red team, blue team" approach to climate change discussions. He also touches upon the potential for temperatures to cool down and the possibility of a flip in public opinion regarding climate change, but expresses skepticism that such a shift would lead to an acknowledgement of the error in attributing warming to fossil fuels. Legates shares his personal background and how he became involved in climate change research in the late 1970s.
• 00:25:00 In this section of the "David Legates: The Case for Climate Realism" podcast, Tom Nelson shares an anecdote about his experiences in the 1980s when he sought advice from climatologists about pursuing a career in climate science. At the time, there was a debate over global cooling versus global warming, and some scientists believed adding carbon dioxide or black soot could help prevent an ice age. However, when temperatures began to rise, the focus shifted to carbon dioxide being the primary cause of climate change. Nelson mentions conversations with climatologists at the University of Maryland and Penn State, who warned him against attending those institutions due to their focus on forecasting and lack of emphasis on climate research. He also discusses concerns about climate record accuracy, citing examples of missing data and station relocations, which can lead to temperature overestimation. He explains that urban heat islands, caused by urban development, can also significantly impact temperature readings. To adjust for these biases, scientists must account for urbanization effects when analyzing climate data.
• 00:30:00 In this section of the "David Legates: The Case for Climate Realism" podcast episode, Legates discusses the inconsistencies between temperature records from surface observations and satellite data. He argues that temperature records are being manipulated to show warmer temperatures, which keeps the narrative of global warming ongoing. Legates also mentions the work of various researchers, including Anthony Watts, who have highlighted issues with surface temperature records due to their proximity to urban areas and other factors. Legates prefers the satellite record as a more accurate representation of lower atmospheric temperatures. He also mentions Tony Heller's work, which involves examining historical temperature records and finding discrepancies between old and new data. Legates suggests that some temperature records are being altered without explanation, giving the impression that the data is being "cooked."
• 00:35:00 In this section of the "David Legates: The Case for Climate Realism" podcast episode, Tom Nelson and David Legates discuss the issue of temperature data manipulation in climate research. Legates expresses concern that some original data may have been lost or altered, such as in the case of the University of East Anglia's temperature reconstruction. He argues that the data should be kept and accessible, as it is not a significant storage issue. They also touch upon the history of climate change predictions, mentioning the shift from global cooling to global warming concerns and the potential impact on weather patterns. Legates argues that a warmer world does not necessarily mean more violent weather, but rather the opposite, as a smaller temperature gradient between the poles and the equator would decrease the conflict of air masses, leading to less thunderstorm activity, fewer tornadoes, and less hail.
• 00:40:00 In this section of the "David Legates: The Case for Climate Realism" podcast episode 211 by Tom Nelson, Legates discusses the potential motivations behind the shift from the global cooling scare to the global warming scare in the late 1970s and early 1980s. He suggests that this transition was driven by political and economic factors, including the push for globalism and the desire to redistribute wealth from rich to poor nations. According to Legates, the idea was to blame rich countries for their wealth, which was attributed to burning fossil fuels and damaging the environment. This would provide a justification for taking money from the rich nations and giving it to poorer ones. He also mentions that natural variability and urban heat island effects may have contributed to temperature changes during that time. Legates questions the causes of temperature fluctuations in the 1930s and 1940s, suggesting that they might have been due to natural reasons rather than human activities.
• 00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "David Legates: The Case for Climate Realism | Tom Nelson Pod #211," the speaker discusses various attempts to manipulate weather patterns, including cloud seeding and geoengineering. He mentions that Native Americans tried to induce rising motion in clouds by marching around a bonfire in a counterclockwise direction, but this practice doesn't make a significant difference. The speaker also criticizes the use of silver iodide in clouds for precipitation enhancement, stating that it doesn't make a difference from a scientific standpoint. He also denies the claim that cloud seeding caused flooding in Dubai and dismisses the idea that contrails indicate geoengineering experiments. The speaker then discusses the High Altitude Research Program (HARP) in Alaska, which aims to heat the upper ionosphere to study its effects on weather patterns. However, he is sworn to secrecy about the program's results and expresses skepticism about its ability to change precipitation patterns or upper air circulation. The speaker also discusses the importance of understanding the physics of cloud formation and rainfall and expresses a need for more research on the topic. He mentions that the UK has been sunnier lately than it was 10 or 20 years ago and suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation could be the cause.
• 00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "David Legates: The Case for Climate Realism | Tom Nelson Pod #211," David Legates discusses the role of natural variability and nonlinear dynamics in climate patterns, using the example of pendulums to illustrate the unpredictability of complex systems. He also touches on various theories explaining climate oscillations, including the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Legates mentions that these oscillations can be partly explained by nonlinear dynamics, making them difficult to predict. He also briefly discusses the potential influences of cosmic rays, geological heat changes, and subterranean magma flows on climate patterns, expressing skepticism about the latter. The conversation then shifts to a discussion of a recent spike in temperature, potentially related to a volcanic eruption in Indonesia that injected water vapor into the stratosphere. Legates expresses surprise at the lack of warming in the UAH data, which shows virtually no warming except for two events.
• 00:55:00 In this section of the podcast, meteorologist David Legates discusses natural climate drivers such as El Nino events and volcanic eruptions, which can cause temperature fluctuations. El Nino events result in a rise in temperature, while volcanic eruptions lead to a cooling effect due to the release of particles into the stratosphere. Legates argues that the satellite temperature record is primarily influenced by these natural phenomena, and a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere would only result in about 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming, as many of the wavelength bands that CO2 absorbs are already saturated. He also criticizes climate models for overstating the warming effect of CO2 and producing unrealistic carbon dioxide emission scenarios.