Summary of #59 Howard Hayden: “the IPCC does NOT apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their results”

00:00:00 - 00:35:00

Physicist Howard Hayden discusses the IPCC's lack of application of the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their climate models in this video. He explains that the IPCC focuses on a multiplying factor, which has caused confusion and led to a multi-billion dollar climate crisis industry. Hayden offers a $10,000 wager to anyone who can find a heat balance drawing in any IPCC assessment report made after 2021 and challenges the validity of Al Gore's claim that CO2 is causing the Earth's temperature to rise. He argues that a higher CO2 level would not necessarily be detrimental to life on Earth and could even benefit agricultural conditions.

• 00:00:00 In this section, Howard Hayden shares his background in physics and his interest in energy. He also talks about how he became interested in the suppression of energy under the "guise of global warming" and the use of different units when discussing energy. He explains how to make a quick buck by betting climate gurus on the numbers and units used in the IPCC's heat balance charts, where numbers are expressed in watts per square meter averaged over the surface of the Earth.
• 00:05:00 In this section, a discussion about heat balance charts is presented, which are used to make sure that the absorption of sunlight and the radiation of heat are equal for the earth. It is explained that these numbers cannot be known exactly, but they are estimated pretty well. However, the heat balance charts for the future have not been made yet, which means there is an opportunity to make a profit by creating them. The uncertainty surrounding these numbers is acknowledged, and it is emphasized not to believe in anything that is highly precise. Additionally, the origin of the number 398 watts per square meter is explained and calculated using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation.
• 00:10:00 In this section, Howard Hayden discusses the missing number in the IPCC's heat balance charts, which is the greenhouse effect. After 31 years, the IPCC has assigned a symbol and a number to the greenhouse effect, which is 159 watts per square meter, and is the difference between the surface radiation and the radiation to space. Hayden offers a wager of $10,000 to find a heat balance drawing in any IPCC assessment report made after 2021, and a $1,000 wager to pick a model and a point in the future to determine if the model's predictions are accurate. Overall, Hayden encourages individuals to not get wrapped up in the pretentious precision and to look up the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation law.
• 00:15:00 In this section, Howard Hayden discusses the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and how it relates to CO2 doubling. The IPCC states that the most probable value of the ECS, i.e. the temperature rise due to CO2 doubling, is three degrees, but the very likely range is two to five degrees. However, Hayden points out that if the temperature does rise by three degrees, the increase in surface emission would have to be between 11 and 28 watts per square meter, which is physically impossible if the increase in the greenhouse effect due to doubling is only 3.7 watts per square meter, as stated by the IPCC. Hayden argues that the models used by the IPCC do not take into account all of the relevant physics, and that the experts who make up the heat balance and those who make predictions about the future do not communicate with each other effectively.
• 00:20:00 In this section, Howard Hayden explains the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) and how it relates to radiative forcing, which is the effect of greenhouse gases, changes in sunlight, and reflectivity of the planet on the Earth's temperature. The SSP report argues that carbon dioxide has the greatest influence on temperature, while aerosols are reducing in number and therefore less effective. By 2080, it predicts a temperature rise of about 3.7 degrees Celsius, resulting in roughly 20 watts of energy per square meter. However, when Hayden calculated the increased ability of CO2, other greenhouse gases, and reflective land surfaces to stop infrared radiation according to the Stefan-Boltzmann equation, he found the resulting energy blockage from these sources to be only seven watts, which does not account for the predicted temperature rise.
• 00:25:00 In this section, physicist Howard Hayden explains that the IPCC does not apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their climate models. The IPCC uses models to predict future temperatures, but they do not take into account how much more the surface will radiate as a result. This means that they cannot construct heat balance charts for any of their scenarios. Hayden explains the Stefan-Boltzmann equation, which can be used to calculate the surface's emission based on different temperatures. The IPCC's focus on the multiplying factor has caused confusion and led to a multi-billion dollar climate crisis industry.
• 00:30:00 In this section, Howard Hayden discusses the IPCC and their lack of response to his emails. He explains that he believes if CO2 is doubled and all else is kept constant, the temperature will rise by about 0.6 to 0.75 degrees Celsius if the warming is due entirely to CO2. He also notes that the IPCC does not apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their results, meaning their predictions are not properly verified. Additionally, he talks about how the Earth has been warmer in the past, referencing the pyramids and Sahara desert as examples, and how CO2 is actually causing a greening effect on the planet.
• 00:35:00 In this section, Howard Hayden questions the validity of Al Gore's claim that CO2 is causing the Earth's temperature to rise, pointing out that Gore never explains where the CO2 came from or went to after causing temperature changes in the past. Hayden also argues that a higher CO2 level would not necessarily be detrimental to life on Earth, and that a one-degree temperature change would not make a significant difference, and could even benefit agriculture conditions. Lastly, Hayden emphasizes that anyone can contact him via email if they have any questions or concerns.