Summary of Tom Shula and Markus Ott : The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232

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In the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," researchers Tom Schula and Markus Ott discuss their findings on the Greenhouse Effect, which they believe is not fully understood. They explain that the term "Greenhouse Effect" is often used to describe Earth's surface temperature but has never been directly observed or measured. The speakers challenge the assumptions in climate models regarding greenhouse warming and the behavior of greenhouse gases, including radiative forcing, the emission of infrared components of greenhouse gases, and the Schwarzschild equation. They argue that non-radiative deactivation occurs at a rate that makes spontaneous emission insignificant in the lower troposphere, and that thermalization plays a crucial role in the greenhouse effect. The speakers also emphasize the importance of water vapor as the most significant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, carrying over 90% of the heat energy carried by all greenhouse gas molecules. Water vapor molecules are carried to the upper atmosphere, where they condense and release sensible heat, driving convection and regulating the Earth's temperature. The speakers challenge the common misconception that CO2 traps heat in the atmosphere by absorbing surface radiation, instead explaining that CO2 absorbs emissions from water vapor and is thermalized, returning heat energy to the atmosphere and driving more emission by water vapor. The speakers present evidence from a paper by Cole and Cronin, which found that outgoing longwave radiation is linearly related to near-surface temperature, contrary to the expected fourth-power dependence on temperature, and attribute this to thermalization converting surface radiation into sensible heat in the atmosphere. Overall, the speakers argue that thermalization plays a crucial role in the greenhouse effect and challenge assumptions in climate models regarding the behavior of greenhouse gases.

00:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," Tom Schula and Markus Ott discuss their research on the Greenhouse Effect, which they believe is ambiguous and not fully understood. They explain that the term "Greenhouse Effect" is often used to describe Earth's surface temperature but has never been observed or measured. The relative contributions of its possible components are unknown, and climate modelers are still trying to fix modeling mismatches, indicating that the models are missing some vital component. The researchers have worked on this presentation for over a year and have not received any funding for their work. They've used mostly freely available scientific publications, although some had to be paid for. They begin by defining some concepts, including thermal radiation, which is electromagnetic radiation emitted by the thermal motion of particles in condensed matter. Gases do not emit thermal radiation, and absorption and emission are processes involving photons. They also discuss other ways to excite and de-excite atoms and molecules that don't involve photons.
00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss various processes related to the greenhouse effect, including non-radiative deactivation, non-radiative excitation, radiative transfer theory, and radiative forcing. Non-radiative deactivation is a process where an excited molecule transfers its energy to another atom or molecule through a collision, increasing the velocity of the collision partner and contributing to heat. Non-radiative excitation is the opposite, where a collision causes a molecule to enter an excited state without the involvement of photons, resulting in a cooling effect. Radiative transfer theory is a method used to describe how energy from thermal emission at the Earth's surface is transported through the atmosphere to space via interactions with photons. Radiative forcing is a term used in climate modeling to describe the effect of an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere on the efficiency of energy transport. The speakers then move on to Part One of their discussion, which focuses on the behavior of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, using the example of carbon dioxide's vibrational states and the importance of the time for the excited state of photon emission.
00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," chemist Hines Heck's experiments are discussed, which reveal that the absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is influenced by other gases like helium and nitrogen. When CO2 is mixed with these gases, the absorption rate increases significantly. The reason for this is that these non-infrared active gases help the excited states of CO2 molecules return to their ground state, a process called thermalization or non-radiative deactivation. In the absence of these gases, CO2 can only absorb 15 micrometer radiation when in the ground state, and its low absorption is due to a lower proportion of ground states caused by the long lifespan of the excited state. During a collision between a CO2 molecule and a non-IR absorbing molecule like nitrogen, the nitrogen absorbs the energy from the vibrating CO2 molecule, increasing its velocity and raising the temperature of the gas. This process of thermalization converts the absorbed energy into increased molecular energy movement, contributing to the heating of the atmosphere.
00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the thermalization process of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere. They explain that each CO2 molecule undergoes about 100,000 nonradiative deactivations per second, which is 50,000 times faster than the spontaneous emission rate. This means that only one out of 50,000 CO2 transitions results in the emission of a photon, while the other transitions are all via thermalization. The thermalization process converts the vibrational energy of the CO2 molecule into sensible heat, raising the temperature and enhancing convection. This is an IR reversible process, and the carbon dioxide and other IR absorbing molecules act as a conduit to convert surface radiation from the Earth into sensible heat, which is then transported to the upper atmosphere through convection.
00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the process of thermalization and reverse thermalization in the Earth's atmosphere. They explain that at 30 feet above the Earth's surface, the emission of infrared radiation from greenhouse gases, including CO2 and water vapor, is essentially gone due to the conversion of radiation energy to sensible heat. This loss of memory of the original radiation field means that the energy is no longer quantized and cannot be transported through the atmosphere via cascades of absorption and emission. Instead, thermally excited emissions, or reverse thermalization, can occur, where sensible heat in the gas is converted into infrared radiation by exciting an IR-active molecule through a collision. This process allows the energy to be released into space. The speakers also discuss how the rate of thermalization varies in the atmosphere, and how the cooling of the atmosphere occurs at high altitudes where the thermalization rate is lower and the photons from spontaneous emission can escape into space. The kinetic energy of gas molecules follows the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, and this process is crucial for regulating the Earth's temperature and preventing it from getting too hot.
00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the role of thermalization in the greenhouse effect. They explain that at the Earth's surface, there is conduction and thermalization, which converts infrared radiation into heat. Convection then transports this heat to the upper atmosphere, where greenhouse gases emit infrared radiation and allow the energy to escape into space. Thermalization prevents spontaneous emission of photons in greenhouse gas frequencies, decoupling surface radiation from radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The speakers also mention the history of radiative transfer theory in climate science, with the first calculations estimating global warming attributed to Arrhenius in 1896.
00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the Schwarzschild radiative equilibrium model, which was proposed as a starting point for understanding energy transport via radiation instead of convection in the atmosphere. Schwarzschild completed the calculations for this model but found that it didn't fit the data as well as he had hoped. However, the radiative equilibrium model's data fit better than the adiabatic equilibrium model, which was based on convection. Despite the model's incongruity with the sun and Earth's atmospheric conditions, it has become a standard practice in climate change research due to its computational efficiency. The speakers question the assumptions and conclusions of models that use the radiative transfer model methodology to validate or rationalize the greenhouse effect.
00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers challenge assumptions in climate models regarding greenhouse warming and the behavior of greenhouse gases. They argue that the models' assumptions about radiative forcing, the emission of infrared components of greenhouse gases, and the Schwarzschild equation are invalid. The speakers claim that non-radiative deactivation occurs at a rate that makes spontaneous emission insignificant in the lower troposphere, and that the models assume all greenhouse gases absorb and emit radiation randomly throughout the atmosphere, leading to the greenhouse effect. However, they argue that this back radiation cannot exist in the presence of thermalization at the demonstrated rate. The speakers also dispute the interpretation of the CO2 absorption band notch in the infrasound spectrum, claiming it is not evidence of CO2 trapping heat in the atmosphere but rather emissions from water vapor being absorbed by CO2.
00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the role of water vapor and thermalization in the greenhouse effect. They argue that the behavior of infrared active gas molecules changes radically in the presence of non-infrared active species due to thermalization. This misunderstanding has led to the perpetuation of the radiative transfer model, despite evidence showing it's not valid. The speakers explain that radiation is absorbed within a dozen or so meters of the Earth's surface, and there's no significant radiation by infrasred active gases until they can radiate back into space. They then delve into the details of how heat from the Earth's surface is transported to space, starting with conduction, which is continuous when the ground temperature is higher than the air temperature. The next step is surface radiation and thermalization, where upwelling long wave radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases and thermalized, converting radiative energy into sensible heat in the atmosphere and driving convection. The thermalization decouples the surface from the radiation that's emitted into space, and the greenhouse gases act as a conduit to convert radiative energy into sensible heat, which drives convection and creates an atmospheric speed limit for the sensible heat to reach the upper atmosphere. Essentially, the heat is not trapped, but its transport is limited by convection.
00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the role of water vapor as the most significant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, despite it being often overlooked in favor of carbon dioxide. They explain that water vapor carries over 90% of the heat energy carried by all greenhouse gas molecules, and since it's a condensing gas, its energy is transferred into space through latent heat and convection. Water vapor molecules are carried to the upper atmosphere, where they condense and release sensible heat. The condensation process requires a nucleating site, and the absorbed heat may be transferred to other molecules, increasing their kinetic energy and driving convection. As the water vapor population decreases with altitude, the probability that a greenhouse gas molecule can emit a photon and release energy to space increases, and water vapor emits over a wide range of frequencies and at low energies. The speakers conclude that all but a very small fraction of outgoing long-wave radiation energy comes from water vapor, making it the most important greenhouse gas.
00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the role of thermalization and water vapor in the greenhouse effect. They explain that carbon dioxide, a non-condensing greenhouse gas, emits energy into space near the mesopause, where the thermalization rate is lower than at sea level. This allows carbon dioxide to avoid thermalization and absorption, enabling the energy to escape to space. The speakers also mention a paper by Cole and Cronin published in 2018, which found that outgoing longwave radiation is linearly related to near-surface temperature, contrary to the expected fourth-power dependence on temperature. They attribute this to thermalization converting surface radiation into sensible heat in the atmosphere, which follows Newton's law of cooling. Most energy lost to space comes from water vapor emission, and the emission by other greenhouse gases is insignificant. The speakers present a chart from the paper showing the relationship between near-surface temperature and outgoing radiation, with an correlation coefficient of about .97 for the linear function.
00:55:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the differences in interpretation between typical radiative transfer model papers and a work by Van Wingarden and Haer called the "Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer." They present charts showing the relative magnitude of outgoing longwave radiation versus altitude for water, carbon dioxide, and the atmospheric window. The speakers explain that water absorbs and emits radiation at relatively low altitudes, while carbon dioxide has no radiation component until over 80 kilometers in the atmosphere. They also discuss the misconception that CO2 traps heat in the atmosphere by absorbing surface radiation. Instead, CO2 absorbs emissions from water vapor, which is emitting above the CO2 absorption trough. After absorbing water vapor, CO2 is thermalized, returning heat energy to the atmosphere, and driving more emission by water vapor to the right of the CO2 trough. The speakers also mention the atmospheric window, which follows the expected emission from the surface closely, and the anomalous absorption by ozone in that region.

01:00:00 - 01:50:00

In the YouTube video "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The ‘Missing Link’ in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss various aspects of the greenhouse effect and climate science. They argue that water vapor, not CO2 or other greenhouse gases, plays the primary role in removing heat from the Earth's surface and transporting it to space. The speakers also criticize the use of one-dimensional model steady-state concepts in climate science, emphasizing the Earth's dynamic system that goes through diurnal and seasonal cycles. They argue that current perspectives on the greenhouse effect being driven by radiative forcing based on averages and one-dimensional models are incorrect, and express concern over the limitations and oversimplification of global climate models. The speakers also discuss the physical impossibility of energy transport via radiative transfer in the troposphere due to thermalization in infractive gases, and the potential implications of disproving the greenhouse effect theory, including the voiding of the EPA's endangerment finding on CO2 and the widespread use of abundant energy sources. Throughout the discussion, the speakers emphasize the importance of understanding the Earth's energy system, critical thinking, and curiosity in understanding climate processes.

01:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the role of water vapor, CO2, and ozone in the greenhouse effect and temperature regulation on Earth. They explain that water vapor, not CO2 or other greenhouse gases, plays the primary role in removing heat from the Earth's surface and transporting it to space. The speakers argue that water vapor molecules absorb and emit radiation as a result of thermal excitation, not by extracting heat from convecting air parcels. They also mention that CO2 emissions occur near the top of the atmosphere, with most of the energy coming from solar radiation absorption rather than convecting air parcels.
01:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the role of radiative heat transport in the troposphere and the emission of CO2 and ozone. They agree that the particular frequency of CO2 makes a negligible contribution to heat transport in the troposphere. However, they find it interesting that the emitted energy is supplied by the absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation, and for CO2 to emit in the 15 Micron band, it has to be excited in that band, which happens via thermally excited emission in the upper atmosphere. The same is true for ozone. The speakers argue that the Earth's climate is a dynamic system that goes through diurnal and seasonal cycles, with significant changes in temperature throughout those cycles. They criticize the use of one-dimensional model steady-state concepts and values like average temperature and energy balance in climate science, as the Earth is never in equilibrium and balance. Instead, they suggest looking at the Earth as an engineering system that receives energy 50% of the time and loses energy 100% of the time.
01:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers argue that current perspectives on the greenhouse effect being driven by radiative forcing based on averages and one-dimensional models are incorrect. They explain that the Earth's energy is never in balance due to its cyclical energy input, and the atmosphere's attempt to reach equilibrium results in weather and climate. The speakers argue that these one-dimensional models create an illusion of equilibrium and tell us virtually nothing about climate. They illustrate this by using simple thought experiments, such as the Earth spinning twice as fast or taking 48 hours to rotate instead of 24, which would result in vastly different temperatures and weather patterns but the same outgoing longwave radiation spectrum. The speakers conclude that there is very little we can draw conclusively about climate based on these models.
01:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," Tom Shula discusses the relationship between Earth and energy. He explains that the Earth is an open system when it comes to energy, as it receives energy from the Sun and outputs excess energy to space. The atmosphere acts as a medium for energy transport between the surface and space, and the only source of input energy is from solar radiation. The energy input is finite and relatively constant, but variable, and the excess energy is output to space in the form of outgoing longwave radiation. Shula argues that it is difficult to rationalize a scenario of runaway warming without a substantial change in input energy due to the effectively infinite sink for excess energy in space. He also discusses the role of water vapor in energy transport and its negative feedback mechanism for moderating temperature. Overall, Shula emphasizes the importance of understanding the Earth's energy system and the natural climate processes at play.
01:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the limitations of global climate models in predicting future climate. They argue that most alarmism regarding climate change is based on these models, despite their past failures to accurately predict climate trends. The speakers also criticize the use of model results in public policy, as they are often presented as realistic scenarios of what could happen, even when they are not reflective of current conditions. The speakers also touch upon the inconsistencies in the models, such as the net radiative imbalance and the solar irradiance, and express uncertainty about how these values are derived.
01:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the complexity and limitations of climate models. They express concern over the use of imaginary physics in these models, which they argue cannot provide accurate results. The models are oversimplified and inappropriate, according to the speakers, as they use radiative transfer, a much simpler model, which already taxes the best and fastest computer systems. The models do not test the greenhouse effect hypothesis but assume it as fact and simulate it under varying conditions. The speakers believe it is a futile effort to model the Earth ocean atmosphere system due to its extreme complexity and chaos. They criticize the climate modeling leadership for refusing to allow debate with competent skeptics and compare the climate modeling to the illusion in The Wizard of Oz. The speakers argue that climate modeling is not science, as it is not based on observation and investigation, and the model outputs are not evidence or reality. Instead, they are predictable results based on the model inputs. Historian's future centuries may wonder about the deeply flawed logic behind these models.
01:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the role of greenhouse gases in heat transport and the greenhouse effect. Contrary to popular belief, greenhouse gases do not trap heat but rather facilitate heat transfer at the surface and the top of the atmosphere. The outgoing longwave radiation outside the atmospheric window is primarily emitted by water vapor, and the contribution of other greenhouse gases is insignificant. The radiative transfer models used in climate science were chosen because they mirrored the conjectures of early scientists, but they misapply Kirchhoff's law and assume a one-to-one relationship between absorption and emission at the atomic molecular level, which is a misapplication of the law deeply rooted in radiative transfer models. Despite their ability to reproduce measured spectra with reasonable accuracy, these models should be used with caution as they are based on flawed assumptions.
01:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the physical impossibility of energy transport via radiative transfer in the troposphere due to the dominance of thermalization in infrared active gases. They explain that this phenomenon, which has been studied and measured for decades, is a natural outcome of quantum physics, thermodynamics, and statistical mechanics, but has been ignored in mainstream climate models. The speakers also criticize the misapplication of the concept of radiative transfer theory and the reliance on balance and equilibrium concepts in climate science. They present their alternative paradigm, which is based on well-understood principles of physics and engineering, and does not require new concepts like radiative forcing. The speakers express concern that the skeptic community has been ineffective in countering the narrative around the greenhouse effect, as the IPCC is focused on investigating only human influence on climate and the media and culture amplify fear. They emphasize the importance of curiosity and critical thinking in understanding the core principle of the false climate crisis.
01:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The ‘Missing Link’ in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the potential implications of disproving the greenhouse effect theory. If the greenhouse effect concept is proven invalid, the EPA's endangerment finding on CO2 would be void, allowing for the widespread use of abundant energy sources. This could lead to improved living conditions for less developed populations and the end of subsidies for solar, wind, carbon capture batteries, and electric vehicles. Many climate scientists would need to transition to new fields, and some may struggle to accept the truth that the narrative they have been pushing for generations is false. The speakers argue that this could be the greatest scientific debacle in history and question whether there is anyone in the scientific community with the influence, humility, and courage to admit the error. They plan to submit their findings to a journal, but acknowledge the challenges of publishing against the current narrative. They also share an interesting historical finding about a challenge to the greenhouse effect theory from over a century ago.
01:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," the speakers discuss the importance of recognizing the change in behavior of iractive gas molecules in the presence of non-iractive species and the misconception that gases trap heat in the atmosphere. They also touch upon the historical CO2 concentration studies and the impact of human activities on it from a climate perspective. The speakers express their concerns about the social control model surrounding climate change, which involves creating a crisis, making people feel guilty, and providing solutions for redemption. They believe that scientists should have addressed these issues long ago.
01:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Shula and Markus Ott: The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect | Tom Nelson Pod #232," Tom Shula expresses his concern about the societal fear surrounding climate change and urges those with influence to expose the work of him and Markus Ott to create debates and conversations. He believes that their work, which quantifies the effect of thermalization in the greenhouse effect, is distinct from earlier work and that there are many scientists and engineers who understand this but are afraid to speak up. Shula criticizes the Western world's cultural values of conformity and suggests that the perceived climate crisis is a false one, with the rest of the world laughing at the Western world's self-destructive behavior.