Summary of Mike Wallace: Solar forcing accounts for most if not all climate change | Tom Nelson Pod #164

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In a YouTube episode, Mike Wallace, a hydroclimatologist, discusses his work exploring the relationship between solar forcing and climate change. He discusses a falsifiable hypothesis he developed involving solar-based forecasts of hydrospheric patterns, and the success he had with this approach. He then discusses the challenges he faced in moving beyond this success in the face of mounting acceptance of anthropogenic global warming as the primary cause of climate change. Wallace goes on to describe his transition from a public art project focused on climate change to the pursuit of a Ph.D. in 2012, and his subsequent experiences attending the American Geophysical Union (AGU) conferences in San Francisco in 2011 and 2012. He explains how he observed a growing community of climate change skeptics, and how this led him to further his understanding of climate science. He discusses his conclusion that solar forcing accounts for most, if not all, of climate change. Wallace then discusses the correlation between sunspot numbers and atmospheric moisture, and the defective global circulation models, lack of quality control, and consequential discrepancies between solar forcing and other climate change factors. He presented maps correlating global temperatures with solar spot numbers, as well as using atmospheric moisture to determine the presence of solar forcing. The speaker also discusses the need to look at spatial and temporal variations in CO2 concentrations, as an important evidence for the role of solar forcing in climate change. Moreover, the speaker emphasizes that while some people believe that the sun is the primary cause of climate change, he thinks that it is often misrepresented in popular discourse. Wallace also discusses his work related to the study of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) data and its correlation with solar radiation and specific humidity in the atmosphere. He mentions ongoing litigation in New Mexico against big oil and how no one seems to be listening to his arguments about climate change.

  • 00:00:00 In this section of the video, Mike Wallace discusses his experiences as a hydroclimatologist and his work on a falsifiable hypothesis involving semi-distant solar forcing and its impact on the hydrospheric manifold, including the ENSO pattern. He explains how, in the past, models simulated these patterns by pasting observational data into GCM results and how his work highlighted fraudulent history matching model skill in this area. Wallace discusses his work on solar-based forecasts of stream flows and how he compared these to models based on anthropogenic global warming models. He mentions the success he had with this comparison, but also notes how difficult it was to move beyond that success in the face of growing acceptance of anthropogenic global warming as the primary cause of climate change.
  • 00:05:00 This section of the transcript follows the speaker's progression from a public art project that focused on climate change to the pursuit of a Ph.D. in 2012, which was motivated by their desire to immerse themselves in the scientific side of the issue. The speaker then attended the American Geophysical Union (AGU) conferences in San Francisco in 2011 and 2012, where they observed a growing community of climate change skeptics, known as "naysayers or deniers." In response to this, the speaker began studying and engaging more deeply with the issue, eventually coming to bolster their own understanding of solar forcing and its role in climate change. They ultimately concluded that solar forcing accounts for most, if not all, of climate change, and noted several ways in which this principle has been misrepresented in popular discourse.
  • 00:10:00 In this section of the video, Mike Wallace discusses the use of global circulation models in promoting climate change and the influence of solar forcing on climate change. He notes that the UN IPCC report does not support the idea that all climate change is caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) but that it is acknowledged that solar forcing accounts for most if not all climate change. Wallace then provides evidence from a satellite measurement station in Hawaii that shows a correlation between solar activity and atmospheric radiation, supporting his claim that solar forcing is the primary cause of climate change. He also notes that the hermit's peak fire in New Mexico, which was set by US Forest Service personnel using guidance from complexity science, was blamed on climate change despite no evidence linking the fire to GHG emissions.
  • 00:15:00 In this section of the video, Mike Wallace discusses the correlation between sunspot numbers and atmospheric moisture, and how solar forcing accounts for most, if not all climate change. He also discusses the defective global circulation models, lack of quality control, and the discrepancies between solar forcing and other climate change factors. Wallace provides examples such as the correlation between solar forcing and trade winds of the western equatorial Pacific, and the negative outgoing long wave radiation at the same location. He argues that the global circulation models are inadequate and that solar forcing is a crucial factor that needs to be incorporated into climate change research.
  • 00:20:00 In this section of the conversation, Mike Wallace discusses his work related to the role of solar forcing in climate change. He explains how he inadvertently showed a correlation between solar forcing and Eno, but the main focus was on forecasting stream flows in the western USA, which he claims was accurate. Wallace says that he relies heavily on a map made by the US Navy in 1946 to understand how circumpolar ocean currents play out and how they affect the climate, including the Peru upwelling current, which flows along the west coast of South America. Regarding this current, Wallace explains that as it flows northwards and empties into the equator, the dissolved CO2 is released into the atmosphere, and as the water gets colder or warmer, Eno's patterns of warmth and cold are affected. Wallace concludes that the cold water from the Peru upwelling current is what leads to warmer Eno changes due to the decrease in evaporation and rainfall in other areas. Additionally, he discusses how high TSI leads to greater convection, increased flow through the brew doorops and circulation towards the North Pole, and a contraction of the Hadley cell, which leads to cooling. However, under low TSI, the Peru Current is not as warm, and it is not contributing the necessary heat to amplify convection in the equator, leading to a diminished Peru Current.
  • 00:25:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the impact of solar cooling on Earth's climate. They explain that as the sun cools, temperature trends are different in the northern and southern hemispheres, with cooling in Antarctica and warming in the Arctic adverse to geostrophic representations of the atmosphere. The Hadley cell expands to the north, creating warmer areas and the Arctic, leading to the concentration of heat in that region. Moreover, the influx of moist air into the Arctic from the brewer doson circulation creates more heat in that area, while the zero temperature contour line on the surface of the earth leads to more warming on the North Pole and a manifestation of complex flow. The speaker finds this flow regime fascinating and relates it to the planet's overall circulation.
  • 00:30:00 In this section, Mike Wallace discusses his research on climate change and the influence of solar activity. He presents a series of maps showing correlations between global temperature and solar spot numbers, with highest correlations in Antarctica and negative correlations in the Arctic. Wallace also discusses the use of atmospheric moisture to determine the presence of solar forcing, with the highest correlation also being in Antarctica. He notes that his findings are largely ignored by other scientists in the field. Additionally, Wallace addresses CO2 emissions and the ocean's role in acidification and death of marine life, but notes that early ocean data may not be entirely accurate and newer research suggests that the increase in CO2 is primarily located in the areas where the Eno footprint is found.
  • 00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video, Mike Wallace discusses his analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) data, including data from NASA's Airs program, which analyzes CO2 uptake in the atmosphere from satellite measurements. Wallace argues that solar forcing is one of the primary drivers of climate change, and he presents evidence to support this claim. Specifically, he points to a strong correlation between CO2 and specific humidity in the atmosphere, arguing that this is caused by increased atmospheric moisture due to solar radiation. Wallace also discusses the importance of looking at the spatial and temporal variations in CO2 concentrations, arguing that these variations provide strong evidence for the role of solar forcing in climate change.
  • 00:40:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of solar forcing and its impact on climate change. They elaborate on how the Earth's atmosphere and oceans circulate various gases in response to solar radiation, with ozone and carbon dioxide being two of the most important gases. Under high solar forcing, more ozone is produced in the stratosphere and falls to the surface, while carbon dioxide is released from the oceans when it comes into contact with colder temperatures. The speaker also discusses the conceptual model showing the relationship between solar cycles and both ozone and carbon dioxide concentrations, and how the Himalayas, Saudi Arabia, and Europe have high concentrations of ozone near their surfaces.
  • 00:45:00 In this section, Mike Wallace discusses his experiences with Ocean acidification and the Wendy Schmid Ocean Health Xprize, which he believes misrepresents the topic. He also talks about the ongoing litigation in New Mexico against big oil and how no one seems to be listening to his arguments about climate change. Wallace emphasizes that he believes that the sun is the main cause of climate change and that people are exploring different ways to dim the Sun, where he mentions a site at the US Department of Energy's Arm site atmospheric radiation measuring site in California. He highlights that despite hundreds of papers sponsored by the Department of Energy on this topic, the big picture is missing and people are focused on distractions and details.
  • 00:50:00 In this section, Mike Wallace discusses his experience working for a site that he believes has a silo or stovepipe approach to climate change information. He questions whether individuals are able to accurately predict El Niño or La Niña in advance, stating that even though he has some expertise in the subject, he was unable to advance in the field due to the presence of too much expert opinion, modeling, and media attention. He also discusses the tendency of El Niño and La Niña experts to focus more on the warming aspect and make assumptions about how it will affect areas on the border of the Eno pattern. Wallace emphasizes the need to question and research the correlation of El Niño and La Niña with humidity and temperature patterns in different regions of the world, and how these patterns influence specific humidity.
  • 00:55:00 In this section, Mike Wallace discusses the relationship between temperature and humidity, and the importance of being specific when talking about changes in these factors. He also discusses his thoughts on predicting future climate changes and the limited accuracy of forecasting Sunspot numbers. Wallace mentions that while some people believe that Sunspot numbers may be a gravitational impact of the planets spinning around the Moon, no one has been able to successfully forecast them in advance. Additionally, he does not believe the Montreal protocol has anything to do with the alleged ozone hole, stating that the correlation between ozone depletion and CFCs is a spur correlation that has been exaggerated. Wallace also discusses his beliefs about the role of moisture in destroying ozone and the limitations of CFC observation in the upper atmosphere. Finally, he mentions his interaction with Tim Dunkerton, a researcher who knows a lot about ozone and the LOD dosin, and who has been helpful to Wallace in understanding these topics.

01:00:00 - 01:05:00

In this article, Mike Wallace discusses his views on the role of solar forcing and ocean processes in shaping CO2 levels and climate change. He argues that the sun's diminished output is the primary driver of CO2 upwelling from the ocean, which accounts for most, if not all, climate change. Wallace notes that natural carbon dioxide cycling is a complex process that requires studying ocean processes and atmospheric circulation patterns, which can impact the distribution and movement of CO2 in the climate. The available data for CO2 in Antarctica is limited, but Wallace points out that his personal research focuses on using paleo proxies and isotopic studies to better understand the cycling of natural CO2 in the Earth's climate.

  • 01:00:00 In this section, Mike Wallace discusses his views on climate change and the role of solar forcing and ocean processes in shaping CO2 levels. He argues that the sun's diminished output is the primary driver of CO2 upwelling from the ocean, which is the process by which carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere from the ocean. He also notes that solar forcing accounts for most, if not all, climate change. Wallace goes on to discuss the use of measurements of CO2 at different locations and at different altitudes to analyze trends in CO2 levels, and to speculate on the potential impact of ocean processes on the formation and movement of CO2 in the climate.
  • 01:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the topic of natural carbon dioxide and the study of its cycling. They mention that they worked on a project related to this topic with an organization that was interested in the subject. However, the organization only had funding to study the amount of CO2 coming out of tailpipe emissions, so the speaker did not have an opportunity to specifically study the Antarctic question regarding the CO2 temperature fluctuations in the Southern Ocean. The speaker also notes that the available data for CO2 in Antarctica is limited, and there is no available satellite data for this region. The speaker then delves into their personal research, which focuses on natural CO2 and paleo proxies, including isotopic studies of bubbles in ice cores and considering the influence of solar circulation on the Earth's climate.

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