Summary of #1 - Chris Martz brings the data on extreme weather; the weather isn't getting worse.

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Chris Martz discusses the misconceptions around extreme weather and climate change. He asserts that there has been no increase in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events and provides data to support his claims. Martz emphasizes the importance of looking at long-term trends and hard data and differentiating between weather and climate. He argues that natural variability and infrastructure build-up, rather than climate change, are responsible for the increasing numbers of hurricanes in recent years. Martz also discusses rainfall, flooding, and drought, showing no clear trend in either the magnitude or frequency of floods and revealing that the global percentage of land area experiencing droughts has not changed since 1901 despite an increase in temperature.

00:00:00 In this section, Chris Martz discusses the misconceptions about extreme weather events being the result of climate change. He explains how the media exaggerates the science behind these events to generate more buzz, clicks, and ratings. He highlights the need to differentiate between weather and climate and how focusing on individual extreme events can distort the bigger picture. Martz also emphasizes the importance of looking at long-term trends and hard data, which shows that extreme weather events are not becoming more frequent or severe.
00:05:00 In this section, weather expert Chris Martz discusses the trend in extreme weather and how it's not getting worse, despite popular belief. He explains that he cares more about what has actually been observed, rather than what climate models say is going to happen. The IPCC report, which he has read extensively, talks about the increase in the proportion of category three through five tropical cyclone instances, but Martz states it's missing context. He goes on to provide evidence showing the actual number of hurricanes has not increased and, in fact, has slightly decreased since the 1990s, while the number of major hurricanes remained relatively constant through the same period.
00:10:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the global frequency of tropical cyclones and the number of major hurricanes, showing that while a greater proportion of them are becoming category 3 or greater, there is no actual increase in the numbers. The speaker further notes that there has been no trend in the global tropical cyclone frequency of the landfalls since 1970. The severity of hurricane seasons is also addressed, as the speaker points out that the accumulated cyclone energy index has shown that the amount of energy used by tropical systems over their lifespans has not increased significantly. The Atlantic basin, which has the longest official record of tropical cyclone data going back to 1851, is also discussed, and the speaker notes that while the 2020 hurricane season was the most active on record by named storms, globally there was not much activity.
00:15:00 In this section, Dr. Chris Martz discusses a study co-authored by Dr. Chris Landsea that examined century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane frequencies. The study found that the increase in hurricane activity since the 1970s is actually a recovery from suppressed tropical cyclone activity from the 1960s through the 1980s. The data was homogenized to adjust for changes in observing practices, such as the use of satellites and airplanes, and the uptick in hurricane activity could not be attributed to man-made climate change. Dr. Martz also addresses the increased number of hurricanes in the last few decades possibly due to less pollution, which has been debunked by the fact that low hurricane activity was observed in the 1960s to 1980s despite heavy aerosol use. The changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are primarily responsible for driving hurricane activity.
00:20:00 In this section, the video delves into the comparison of hurricane seasons from 1933 and 2020. Although the number of storms in 2020 exceeded 1933, it is important to note that the latter was not recorded with the same technological advantages and satellite data. A brand new study by Dr. Phil Clotsbach examined the global tropical cyclone frequencies, and it concludes that the increase in named storms lasting less than two days is not due to climate change but rather due to better technology in detecting these storms. The video also emphasizes that the landfall data for the United States since 1851 is more accurate than out to sea data.
00:25:00 In this section, Chris Martz uses data from the National Hurricane Center to show that there has been no trend in hurricane data and hurricane landfall frequency over the past 170 years. He notes that 1886 was the biggest outlier in terms of hurricane landfalls with seven, while 2020, 2004, and 2005 had six each. The major hurricane frequency, category three or higher with maximum sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or higher, has remained constant. Even though studies show that tropical cyclones have become more destructive, Martz asserts that this does not prove that climate change is responsible for the high degree of destruction caused by hurricanes, which is costing billions and billions of dollars worldwide.
00:30:00 In this section, the speaker argues that the increasing numbers of hurricanes in the 21st century do not necessarily indicate climate change. The rise can be attributed to the increase in infrastructure along the coastlines, which mother nature can now destroy. The speaker cites a 2018 study by Dr. Pilkey, which argues that we need to normalize hurricane losses to account for inflation and infrastructure build-up, and states that using 1900 and 2005 as examples of high hurricane death tolls is misleading since weather technology has advanced so much since then. While natural disasters still occur, warning systems and mitigation measures have helped reduce the number of deaths. Additionally, the speaker points out that, based on data since 1900, the intensity of hurricanes making landfall has not increased.
00:35:00 In this section, Chris Martz discusses the trend of hurricanes and extreme weather. He explains that there has not been much of a trend in hurricane intensity when making landfall in the United States since 1900. The same is true in Japan where no trend of tropical cyclone landfall was detected. Data from the past 50 years also show that there is not much of a trend in southeast Asian tropical cyclone landfalls. Martz concludes that there is no evidence of a climate crisis based on the data he has analyzed.
00:40:00 In this section, Chris Martz discusses the challenges of identifying past trends in tropical cyclones and weather data due to the low quality and temporal length of such data. While there could be trends in weather patterns, the data is not adequate enough to assess trends properly. However, if there are trends, they are being masked by multi-decadal variability or even potentially by aerosol use. Chris Martz updates the tornado charts from NOAA with data from the Tornado Archive and explains the EF scale, used to assign tornado ratings. While the United States is the country with the most documented number of tornadoes, there are still low confidence and no reported long-term trends in hail, winds, and tornado activities.
00:45:00 In this section, Chris Martz discusses the trends in tornado occurrences and intensity. He notes that while there have been advances in technology that make it easier to identify tornadoes, there has been no trend in EF1-EF5 tornado accounts since 1954. Furthermore, strong and violent tornadoes have decreased by 50% since records began, with the fewest number of tornadoes reported in 2018. While there have been headlines about tornado alley shifting east and climate change to blame, research by scientists suggests there are negative tendencies of tornado occurrence in the central and southern Great Plains but robust positive trends in other parts of the United States. However, it is still unclear the impact of climate change on tornado alley's shift.
00:50:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the lack of evidence connecting extreme weather events to climate change. They analyze the Mayfield outbreak and find a shift in tornadoes' geographical area, but they suggest that this shift is likely due to natural variability, such as el Nino, la Nina, and Atlantic multidicatal oscillation. The speaker also discusses flooding trends globally, stating that while there has been an increase in heavy rainfall, there has been no significant trend in flooding. They attribute this to the thermal expansion of the atmosphere, which has a capacity to hold more water and air, not necessarily climate change. The evidence presented suggests more natural variability in extreme weather events than the impact of climate change.
00:55:00 In this section, Chris Martz presents data on extreme weather including rainfall, flooding, and drought. He notes that heavier rainfall events have increased since 1950 but this isn't causing more floods, and it's probably beneficial to crops. Martz also analyzes flooding in the entire US which shows no clear trend in either the magnitude or frequency of floods. Regarding droughts, two studies he cites show that the percentage of land area experiencing droughts has not changed on a global basis since 1901 despite an increase in temperature, and one study even shows a decrease in global drought area from 1901 to 2017. Martz did not include data on wildfires or extreme temperatures but provides a recent article on heat waves available on his blog. He states that he will post the full slide presentation on his blog in the coming weeks.

01:00:00 - 01:35:00

Chris Martz, a meteorologist and climate researcher, disputes the idea that extreme weather is getting worse due to human-caused climate change. He explains that natural variability and historical climatic oscillations such as the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976 and the Atlantic Multiplicative Oscillation (AMO) can have a more significant impact on global temperatures than greenhouse gases. Furthermore, Martz delves into the Jet Stream and Polar Vortex and activity of the sun affecting the Earth's climate. However, he believes that global temperature rise associated with greenhouse gases is expected to cause fewer cold days and more heatwaves and argues that policymakers should focus on building weather-resilient infrastructure and moving away from the coast rather than focusing on dismantling capitalism.

01:00:00 In this section of the video, the conversation shifts to the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976. Chris Martz explains that this shift has been tweeted about by Dr. Ryan and that it was previously known as the Great Pacific Decadal Climate Shift. Martz also mentions that the causes of these oscillations are unknown, but that they are internally driven by heat redistribution. The conversation touches on the fact that very little research is funded to explore natural climate variability as compared to man-made causes. Martz notes the importance of looking at a wide range of perspectives at conferences such as the Heartland Climate Conference, which he hopes to attend.
01:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the Atlantic Multiplicative Oscillation (AMO) and its impact on temperatures in various regions. He points out that it is important to note that this phenomenon could have a significant effect on global temperatures: if the AMO reverses in the next five to fifteen years, we could see a flat lining or even a slight decrease in global temperature, in spite of increasing greenhouse gases. Furthermore, he notes that we are overdue for a descent into an ice age, which would not be felt in any of our lifetimes, but its effects may have been delayed due to human intervention. Finally, the speaker touches briefly on the idea that if the poles warm faster than the equator, there would be less of a temperature difference between the two, potentially leading to less extreme weather.
01:10:00 In this section of the video, Chris Martz brings up the fact that with the world getting warmer, we would expect more heatwaves but less cold. However, the detection of heatwaves is limited because of extremes in the 1920s, 30s, and 50s. The global area covered by unusually cold temperatures has decreased since then. Despite this, there have been instances of really cold arctic air outbreaks, which some scientists try to explain using convoluted logic. Martz believes that this doesn't make sense, and these outbreaks have been happening for centuries. The explanation for them is that they occur with or without the polar vortex involved, and their occurrence is referred to as weather, not climate change, as they have been happening long before global warming.
01:15:00 In this section, Chris Martz discusses how the temperature on the planet is affected by changes in the jet stream and the polar vortex, which are often attributed to climate change. While the loss of sea ice could affect the stability of the jet stream and create extreme weather conditions, the waviness of the jet stream is actually caused by the decrease in temperature gradient, which creates an environment of instability. When the Arctic cools, and a deep air mass is created, it drives the jet stream, which can form cold air outbreaks. During summer, the jet stream retreats north, creating a stagnant and hot semi-permanent high. It is concluded that changes in the jet stream are not caused by climate change but by the natural fluctuations in the Earth's temperature gradient.
01:20:00 In this section, Chris Martz discusses the potential effect of changes in solar activity on the Earth's climate, which can impact the weather patterns and cause natural variability. While there is ongoing research and some conflicting viewpoints regarding the influence of cosmic rays and cloudiness on climate change, Martz acknowledges that the work of climate scientist Nir Shaviv is compelling, although it is not an area he avidly researches. Martz also addresses the use of tree rings as climate proxies, stating that while they may indicate precipitation levels, they are not the best representation of temperature. He cites the controversy around the hockey stick graph, which is based on tree ring proxies, and the importance of statistically applying the data accurately to avoid inaccuracies in the findings.
01:25:00 In this section, meteorologist and climate skeptic Chris Martz talks about inaccurate temperature representation and the impact of factors such as sheep defecation on proxy temperature records. He also touches on the medieval warm period and the lack of discussion around climate change among peers and professors at his college. While Martz's views are not universally agreed upon, he states that he is respected for sticking to evidence-based facts.
01:30:00 In this section, Chris Martz, a meteorologist and climate researcher, discusses his experiences with climate protests and his views on extreme weather. He states that he agrees with the underlying premise of human-caused climate change, but disagrees with the alarmist idea that extreme weather is the worst it has ever been. He notes that extreme weather is a feature of natural variability and that any event, no matter how extreme, does not necessarily indicate long-term changes. He argues that policy should focus on building better weather-resilient infrastructure to mitigate the effects of extreme weather, rather than buying into climate cultism or catastrophe crack.
01:35:00 In this section, Chris Martz discusses his views on different sources of energy and the cult-like behavior of some climate activists. He suggests that nuclear energy may be the best choice for reducing our reliance on fossil fuels, along with hydro and geothermal power, which he believes are superior to wind and solar power. He criticizes certain groups of climate activists for wanting to dismantle capitalism and implementing policies that hurt the poor, rather than focusing on policies that would mitigate disaster vulnerability, such as building better infrastructure and moving away from the coast. He believes that some of these activists are politically motivated and not based on any science.