Summary of Roger Pielke Jr.: Honest brokering is a group effort | Tom Nelson Pod #114

00:00:00 - 00:55:00

Energy expert Roger Pielke Jr. discusses the need for a diverse portfolio of energy technologies and a backstop technology to ensure a functioning grid, emphasizing that policymakers must diversify energy choices, improve energy technologies, and smartly use policies to accelerate decarbonization. He also believes that energy subsidies should be evaluated on a portfolio basis and in the context of their policy goals. Pielke argues for the importance of investing in future energy technologies such as fusion and geothermal and being skeptical of those that don't yet exist. He also discusses the societal impact of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and heatwaves, noting that while the impact has increased dramatically, damage is not due to climate factors but rather to factors such as what we build, where we build, and how much wealth we have.

• 00:00:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr discusses his research on extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and heat waves. He highlights that the societal impact of extreme weather has increased dramatically in the United States and worldwide but explains that damage has increased due to factors such as what we build, where we build, how much wealth we have, and not due to climate factors. He also notes that flood damage in the U.S. is down by about 70 percent since the 1940s, and while some parts of the country have experienced an increase in drought, there is no overall trend. Additionally, while there has been an increase in heat waves globally, the impact of such events has decreased over time as humans have become better at living with high temperatures.
• 00:05:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr. discusses the increasing prevalence of air conditioning as the most significant aid during heatwaves and the projected increase in billions of air conditioning units worldwide in the coming decades. He also talks about his transition to Substack as his primary platform for sharing his work, highlighting the extended peer review process and the positive impact it has on his ideas and analyses. Pielke Jr. also praises Twitter's effectiveness in accessing expertise and gathering intelligence, but notes that the challenge is separating the noise from verified information.
• 00:10:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr. discusses his view on honest brokering and how it is a group effort rather than an individual one. He explains that he views his sub stack as a collaborative effort to learn more and that he himself is limited in seeing the big picture. Pielke also talks about the iron law of climate policy, which he formulated while working on his book, The Climate Fix. He argues that economic growth will always win out over emissions reductions when policy is focused on economic growth confront policies focused on emissions reductions. Pielke believes that humanity should focus on energy technology to decarbonize the economy, and he hopes that by 2050, more people around the world will have access to energy services.
• 00:15:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr. discusses the importance of investing in future energy technologies, such as fusion and geothermal, and being skeptical of those that don't exist yet. He emphasizes the need to accelerate the trend of decarbonizing the global economy, which has been happening for the past 100 years, and believes that by 2050, we will see a dramatic expansion of energy access worldwide, with the possibility of reaching net-zero emissions by 2100. Pielke Jr. also argues against the debate of developmental fossil fuel resources in Africa, given that the continent is a small contributor to global emissions. He believes that people need reliable power, whether it's through fossil fuels or alternative sources, and it's essential to provide the technology to do so. Finally, Pielke Jr. discusses the importance of technological standards in policy, such as banning internal combustion engines in California by 2030.
• 00:20:00 In this section of the video, Roger Pielke Jr. speaks about the role of government in inducing technological innovation through standards and regulations. He discusses the success of ratcheting up fuel economy standards as a technological approach that has proven to be extremely successful. While Pielke acknowledges some technologies that governments can and should ban, he states that Banning Technologies is a much better thing to do in the rearview mirror than as a matter of innovation policy. He also shares an interesting anecdote of using cap and trade to increase life expectancies and points out that not every problem that requires technological innovation to make progress necessarily requires an overt price on the externality.
• 00:25:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr. suggests that implementing a low carbon tax, such as a $5 per ton carbon tax, could raise an enormous amount of money to fund the Energy Technologies of tomorrow. He offers the example of the U.S. highway system, which has been sustained for several generations through the use of gasoline taxes. Pielke proposes that we should treat energy production and innovation in the same way as we treat infrastructure, such as roads, and use today’s energy consumption to build the energy systems of the future. He suggests allocating the funds to RD/demonstration projects in places where there is expertise in an array of Energy Technologies, and then deploying and testing them in places that are willing to be guinea pigs with the goal of accelerating decarbonization.
• 00:30:00 In this section, energy expert Roger Pielke Jr. discusses the importance of having a diverse portfolio of energy technologies and the need for a backstop technology to ensure a functioning and healthy grid. He notes that the world is big enough and diverse enough for there to be a healthy ecosystem of energy innovation in different political contexts. Pielke emphasizes that in order to accelerate the process of decarbonizing the global economy, we must smartly use policies, diversify energy choices and improve energy technologies. However, he acknowledges that energy literacy is a challenge, and policymakers often have unrealistic expectations when it comes to replacing traditional energy sources with renewables like wind and solar.
• 00:35:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr. discusses the magnitude of the challenge in addressing climate change and the difficulties in evaluating technological subsidies. He notes that policymakers realize the scale of the challenge when engaging with these issues, which has contributed to the politicization of climate change. He emphasizes the importance of evaluating technological subsidies on a portfolio basis and in the context of their policy goals. When asked if solar power subsidies make sense in Minnesota, Pielke argues that while it may not make sense in a specific context, evaluating subsidies must be done on a bigger-picture basis. Finally, he notes that the question of whether the warming since 1850 has been a net negative for life on Earth is difficult to answer, as the world we inhabit is shaped by the Industrial Revolution and the decisions to influence policy going forward are where the most impact can be made.
• 00:40:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr. discusses the world's increasing need for energy and the need to find more efficient and cleaner ways of producing it. He explains that while coal and natural gas may still have a role in energy production, it is crucial to accelerate decarbonization processes to ensure sustainable energy for the future. While he believes Net Zero by 2050 may not be realistic, he agrees that the goal is reasonable and that we need to work towards it in a way that fosters smart decision-making, saves money, and expands equity and access around the world. Pielke Jr. argues that we should focus on how to accelerate decarbonization, so that the last tons of carbon dioxide to reach Net Zero will be easy to achieve and that decarbonization is essential for sustainable energy. Finally, he refutes the argument that an 800 PPM CO2 world is better for humans and plants than a 280 PPM CO2 world, stating that decarbonization is necessary for keeping the earth habitable.
• 00:45:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr. discusses how decarbonization of the economy has been happening for a century based on reduced emissions per unit of GDP and lower carbon content per unit of energy produced. While he recognizes that decarbonization is happening, he argues against forcing decarbonization and making stupid energy decisions in order to prevent bad weather, which he believes is a complete scam. He believes that letting the markets pick the best, cheapest, and most reliable energy is the way to go. Additionally, he argues that energy policies are intertwined with state-run agencies, governments, and policy, which affects energy management, whether markets operate freely or not.
• 00:50:00 In this section of the video, Roger Pielke Jr. discusses how government policies can drive innovation and accelerate decarbonization without mandating certain technologies. He acknowledges that some people are hesitant to comply with regulations that restrict certain technologies but explains that there are smart policies that can cut electric bills and increase energy reliability while contributing to decarbonization. He believes that energy security is an essential reason for decarbonization. Pielke also critiques Germany’s energy policy and advocates for nuclear power, saying that Germany is not on the path to Net Zero because of its focus on wind and solar energy instead of nuclear.
• 00:55:00 In this section, Roger Pielke Jr. discusses the mining of resources such as lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel for clean energy. He believes that these resources are necessary for a successful energy transition and that the climate benefits should outweigh any potential negative impacts. Pielke also emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in reducing the environmental footprint of energy production and dematerializing the economy as a whole. He argues that the first steps in climate policy, such as providing energy access to the four billion people who lack it, are more important than debating final steps that may be decades away.