Summary of #55 Terry Gannon: Keeping science unsettled

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Terry Gannon, a climate skeptical scientist, discusses in this video the attack on science and higher education and the need to keep science unsettled, particularly in discussing climate change. He highlights the importance of reproducibility, the lack of merit and quality in the field of science, and the dangers of subordinating merit and knowledge to a narrative. Gannon challenges the four key claims of the IPCC, emphasizes the importance of questioning everything, and the need to raise the right questions in the general public. He also discusses the importance of understanding the black body radiation curve, the relationship between temperature and CO2, and sunspots' variances and their impact on climate change.

00:00:00 In this section of the podcast, Terry Gannon introduces himself as an advocate and activist in the climate skeptical science arena due to his background in device physics and semiconductors. He discusses the inadequate discussion of climate topics and the lack of scientific basis in declarative statements popular in today’s culture. The section also touches on the societal impact of culture wars and cancer culture in various institutions. Gannon lists the main topics he aims to cover, including climate change policies, challenges in computer modeling energy release, scientific arguments, and the need to raise the right questions in the general public.
00:05:00 In this section, Terry Gannon highlights the importance of understanding root causes, particularly in addressing issues that tend to repeat themselves. He notes the attack on science and how it is hitting higher education institutions. In the area of climate science, he points out that there is no debate and that the science is being treated as settled despite the need for continuous study. The attack on science is seen as targeting institutions, and there is a strong emphasis on group think in higher education. The tip of the spear in this attack is climate science since it was attacked 30 years ago. Gannon also mentions the control of the energy industry as the clear goal of covering the issue of climate change and controlling the economy and the world.
00:10:00 In this section, Terry Gannon discusses the dramatic difference between the amount of money that goes into climate change research versus skeptical science research. He also talks about how the peer review process for climate change research can often be biased, leading to a power review. Additionally, Gannon provides several quotes regarding climate change research and the precautionary principle, including one from Maurice Strong, who stated that the only way to save the world would be for industrial civilization to collapse, and that destroying industrialized countries may be our duty.
00:15:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of good science and the process it entails, starting with assumptions and testing them with hypotheses and theories until proven wrong or knowledge is gained. He expresses concern over the lack of reproducibility in peer-reviewed papers and the loss of merit and quality in the field of science. He also mentions the issue of lowering standards in education to achieve equal outcomes, which has led to the rise of critical theory, specifically critical race theory, and the need to untrain the systematic biases. He recommends reading James Lindsay's book, "Critical Theory," for a more detailed understanding of the topic.
00:20:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of declarations and its relation to the totalitarian nature of ideologies. Declarations rely on unverified facts to support a supposition that creates an overpowering narrative, and those who question it are punished. The reliance on selected experts is also discussed, with some experts being bureaucratic spreadsheet experts rather than true knowledgeable professionals. Skeptical scientists are highlighted as individuals who can talk about various scientific subjects compared to most climate scientists in today's world who rely on computer modeling to compute costs. The importance of questioning everything, as stated by Feynman, is emphasized, with the speaker pointing out that Feynman wouldn't be accepted into MIT in the current scenario because of his skin color.
00:25:00 In this section of the video, Terry Gannon discusses the importance of measuring the weight of the atmosphere. He states that the atmosphere weighs over 700 pounds per capita and that it is largely responsible for the varying cloud cover, which can range from 40 to 70 percent. He shows diagrams of the Earth's energy flow and explains how CO2 enhances the energy out of the polar caps. He also questions the accuracy of climate models and the statements made by the IPCC regarding cloud cover.
00:30:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the non-linear problem of the Earth's radiation and the different components of energy that leave the Earth's surface. The energy out from the surface, including radiation, conduction, and convection, is crucial in maintaining the Earth's temperature balance. The majority of the Earth's energy is from the Sun's radiation, while the temperature on Earth adjusts to maintain energy output from radiation. The speaker also presents a graph of the U.S.'s temperature from 1890 to the current time, emphasizing that a significant change in temperature is not noticeable, and further probing from climate scientists is necessary to explain the Earth's temperature fluctuations. Finally, the components of the atmosphere are discussed, with nitrogen and oxygen being the most prominent components and water vapor being a significant contributor to the greenhouse effect.
00:35:00 In this section of the video, the speaker discusses the properties of water vapor and its relationship with greenhouse gases. While greenhouse gases are said to warm the atmosphere, water vapor is notably absent from the list of gases that are observed to have such an effect. The speaker delves into the details of the physics behind greenhouse gases, explaining that these gases capture infrared radiation that is then converted into kinetic energy through collisions with other molecules. He emphasizes that while there is an impact on temperature, it is not significant and water vapor is actually a more important factor in global warming than the often-cited carbon dioxide.
00:40:00 In this section, the speaker explains the importance of understanding the black body radiation curve with respect to CO2 radiation and how it appears at different temperatures. The notch in the center of the curve shows the CO2 energy that is stored and radiated outward in outer space beyond the atmosphere's influence. The incoming yellow curve from the Sun is well-behaved, while the green curve shows initial O2, H2O, and eventually CO2 with significant energy being absorbed by water vapor. CO2 is shown to be our friend as it is increasing the radiation out of the polar caps and cooling it. Moreover, the red curve shows a slight widening of the spectral curve, which seems saturated if CO2 is tripled, revealing the importance of recognizing the accurate theories for the end of the century.
00:45:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the four key claims made by the IPCC, which are essential to their argument that man is controlling the climate. These claims include the idea that CO2 drives temperature change, that there are no natural explanations for temperature changes, that computer models are highly accurate, and that man's emissions dominate CO2. The speaker also highlights the dangers of subordinating merit and knowledge to a narrative as a science, particularly in fields like healthcare. Additionally, the speaker presents data dating back 570 million years that suggest a downward trend in CO2 levels, which is in contrast to the IPCC's claims.
00:50:00 In this section, the speaker discusses how temperature is the driving force behind CO2, not the other way around. He presents a graph from Bostock that shows that the temperature leads the greenhouse gas by 700 years and other data that supports this correlation. Furthermore, the speaker brings up the correlation between solar radiation and temperature, which is stronger than what is seen with CO2. The discussion concludes with a brief mention of sunspots and how they actually take fuel away from their surroundings.
00:55:00 In this section, Terry Gannon discusses the relationship between sunspots and climate change. He mentions that there is variance in sunspots, and when sunspots go down, the energy from the sun is decreased. He talks about a model that predicts sunspot activity and mentions that the next 30 to 60 years could be a cooling period. Gannon also briefly touches upon other natural causes of climate variation and the fact that CO2 lags temperature by a thousand years. Finally, he discusses a graph from the CO2 Coalition that shows the logarithmic relationship between parts per million of CO2 and global warming.

01:00:00 - 01:35:00

In this YouTube video, Terry Gannon discusses various aspects of climate science and how uncertainties surround most of them. He talks about climate models, their limitations, and the complex feedback mechanisms that affect the Earth's temperature. He points out the need for accurate measurement of CO2 emissions and highlights the role of water vapor in the absorption curves of greenhouse gases. Gannon also comments on the idea of stopping the use of fossil fuels entirely and argues that there are no viable alternatives. Ultimately, Gannon emphasizes the need to take science seriously, question the information presented, and avoid making decisions based on incomplete knowledge.

01:00:00 In this section, the speaker discusses climate models and how they are represented in a 3D atmosphere. However, these models have limitations when it comes to accurately representing the oceans and require a significant amount of computing power. The models use horizontal and vertical grids to compute at the intersection of each grid and iterate through various iterations to ensure convergence. Parameterization and data fitting are used to fix inaccuracies in the models. The speaker also touches on the importance of resolution and shows data sets that compare different model outputs with observations.
01:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the limitations of climate modeling due to the vast amount of compute power required for accurate results. The speaker mentions that the time it would take to compute 20 years of data accurately with current technology would take longer than a human's lifetime and the computer would fail in about 10 years. Therefore, scientists have to make judgments on how to bolster the meaning of the models rather than accurately computing them. The speaker shows that models based on CO2 influence being high do not represent the climate accurately and that observations of seasonal variation don't match the models accurately either. The speaker concludes that scientists should be cautious when making policy decisions based on climate science models.
01:10:00 In this section, Terry Gannon discusses the concept of feedback in climate science and how it affects the temperature of the Earth's surface. He mentions that CO2 by itself cannot significantly warm the planet, but models predict that it can cause a one-degree temperature increase due to positive feedback from water vapor. However, Gannon questions why H2O, which also has positive feedback, does not cause a runaway temperature increase. Gannon also shows different models from around the world and points out that the Russian model, which shows the least amount of CO2 influence, is closest to the observation values. He concludes that climate science models are complex, and resolving formulas used in them accurately is necessary to represent climates correctly.
01:15:00 In this section, Terry discusses the different climate models that are used for climate predictions and the potential lack of feedback in the process. He notes that it's unknown whether the 100 different climate models were created from scratch or whether there was sharing of information and code among various institutions. He believes that the process of creating models is partly money-driven and researchers are keen to find work by proving the desired result. Terry also talks about CO2 on Earth and its impact on plants. He notes that as CO2 goes up, plants become more efficient and can operate at a higher temperature, thereby enhancing foliage growth, making plants more efficient, and solving world hunger. Finally, he briefly touches on the carbon cycle and the way in which carbon is recycled throughout the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and plants.
01:20:00 In this section, Terry Gannon discusses the uncertainty of measuring carbon dioxide emissions accurately. He explains that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cannot be verified as only 60% of the total emitted from the Earth's surface is getting into the atmosphere. The rest of it goes into the ocean, and the ocean temperature drives CO2 release. Additionally, CO2 does not stay long in the atmosphere as it is absorbed by the ocean, and its longevity varies from a few months to a thousand years, as per different estimates. Gannon emphasizes the need to understand CO2 and the critical role of water vapor in the absorption curves, and how it swamps the other greenhouse gases, rendering them less critical. Finally, he discusses the uncertainty of CO2 measurement and that there is a need for more research that goes beyond estimates, especially since models fail to understand what CO2 is doing in the atmosphere.
01:25:00 In this section, Terry Gannon discusses the flat emissions from Africa, which contradicts the increasing emissions from China. Africa has untold amounts of natural gas that could improve their CO2 emissions, but world authorities do not allow them to use it. Additionally, Gannon argues that CO2 does not drive temperature; nature does. He points out the inaccuracies in depicting ice coverage in the Arctic and challenges the notion that computer modeling is always accurate. He states that science is not settled, and there is still a lot to learn in climate history. Net Zero may seem like a logical solution, but it is impossible to achieve zero CO2 emissions.
01:30:00 In this section, Terry Gannon discusses the proposal to stop using fossil fuels immediately and how it's not a realistic solution to the climate crisis. He argues that there are no alternatives to fossil fuels that can provide the necessary energy to keep hospitals running, transportation moving, and military protecting nations. Gannon also believes that the crises that could arise from going completely renewable would be greater than the crisis currently caused by CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. He suggests that climate scientists need to unite to convince people to take action in a way that they can understand and avoid going down a path that could lead to even greater problems.
01:35:00 In this section, Terry Gannon explains the process of cooling and condensation of water vapor in the atmosphere. He discusses how water vapor condensation helps cool the Earth and emphasizes the importance of taking science seriously and not subscribing to incorrect information. He challenges individuals to look at science seriously, especially in the case of climate science that has been attacked for years. Finally, Gannon warns about the possible consequences of subscribing to incorrect information and how it could impact the survival of the planet's population.