Summary of Javier Vinós: Searching for Natural Climate Change | Tom Nelson Podcast #70

00:00:00 - 00:30:00

Javier Vinós outlines his perspective on climate change in this video, expressing his belief that while the correlation between CO2 levels and global temperature has been consistently rising over time, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) theory is incomplete and flawed. To find the complete picture surrounding climate change, a search for natural climate change is necessary. Vinós points out how energy flows through the climate system affect changes in Earth’s rotation speed and how solar activity, ocean oscillations, and energy transport all have a significant impact on global temperature. He proposes his hypothesis, “winter gatekeeper,” to determine the surface temperature evolution over the past century. Vinós emphasizes the complexity of climate change and argues that it is crucial to consider alternative explanations since the IPCC only offers a simple explanation that is not entirely correct.

• 00:00:00 in this section, Javier Vinós discusses the limitations of the IPCC's view of climate change and the role of human activity in causing it. He notes that while CO2 levels and global temperature have been rising over time, there are periods where the correlation is not so clear. Vinós argues that the IPCC's theory is incomplete and that their models are flawed. He proposes that a search for natural climate change is necessary and presents a study on the matter. He believes that natural climate change has the potential to cause significant changes in the Earth's temperature, citing examples from the past 50 million years.
• 00:05:00 In this section, Javier Vinós discusses temperature and CO2 moving in opposite directions for millions of years, even at times when the CO2 levels were the highest. He proposes that tectonic changes affecting heat transport could explain it. He then moves onto discussing past climate events and the radiocarbon curve, which establishes a radiocarbon date that scientists translate into a calendar date. Vinós highlights four of the biggest climate events that coincide with the four biggest Grand solar Minima of the past. Moreover, the last three climate events were accompanied by a substantial population decrease, which clearly shows that when solar activity goes down for an extended period, the climate takes a dive, and humans suffer.
• 00:10:00 In this section, Javier Vinós discusses the idea of natural climate change, which isn't recognized by paleoclimatologists, who typically link cooling events to small variations in solar radiation. Vinós believes that climate change and CO2 changes do not correlate most of the time, and past climate analysis shows that most abrupt climate events took place in the absence of significant greenhouse gas changes. Vinós studied over 100 papers and discovered that past events were consistent with a complete reorganization of the atmosphere that induces severe cooling, with the northern mid-latitudes most affected. He also discusses the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influence energy transport and strongly affect global temperature. Finally, Vinós explores El Nino and the frequency of La Ninas, showing that neutral and La Nina years are strongly affected by the solar cycle.
• 00:15:00 In this section, Javier Vinós discusses how energy flows through the climate system and how it affects heat transport and changes in Earth's rotation speed. Due to the way solar radiation enters the Earth, more energy enters the climate system over the tropics than exits over the rest of the planet, and this energy transport is responsible for weather and the hydrological cycle. The Earth rotates faster during low solar activity, strengthening atmospheric circulation and transporting more heat towards the North Pole. Oceanic oscillations are also shown to strongly affect climate. The IPCC claims that small changes in solar radiation cannot affect climate, but this section provides evidence to the contrary.
• 00:20:00 In this section, Javier Vinós presents his "winter gatekeeper" hypothesis, which is his idea that natural climate change is primarily caused by a change in the transport of energy, specifically the amount of energy that is transported to the weather poles. He claims that this transport is affected by various factors, such as the polar vortex and solar activity. Vinós argues that persistently low solar activity causes increased energy loss by the planet, leading to Northern latitude cooling and Antarctic warming, while persistently high solar activity has the opposite effect. He also discusses the effect of solar activity on energy loss in the Arctic, which leads to a negative correlation between solar activity and Arctic warming.
• 00:25:00 In this section, Javier Vinós discusses the relationship between solar activity and the Earth's climate. He explains that the end of the modern solar maximum in the 21st century may be causing Greenland warming, which is a sign of natural climate change. Vinós presents a diagram that shows how solar activity affects heat transport and climate variability. He also introduces the "winter gatekeeper hypothesis" to explain the surface temperature evolution over the past 120 years and argues that natural climate change has strongly contributed to global warming. Vinós suggests that natural climate change could significantly impact the Earth's climate in the future, causing Arctic cooling and a growth of Arctic sea ice.
• 00:30:00 In this section, Javier Vinós emphasizes the complexity of climate change and the need for more research in the field. He points out that the IPCC offers a simple explanation that may not be entirely correct and that the evidence they have is not fitting into their theory. Vinós suggests that we should consider alternative explanations and that we should not give the impression that we have all the answers. He also states that it is important to recognize our ignorance about climate change, and that we should not think that we already have all the answers because it is too complicated for anyone to understand at this point. Finally, Vinós explains that increased CO2 should cause cooling in Antarctica and that increased solar activity should cause cooling in the Arctic, although these concepts may seem counter-intuitive.