Summary of #38 - Michael Connolly: “People who thought the science was settled are in for a shock”

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Michael Connolly discusses his new empirical findings regarding the Earth's atmosphere and how it challenges current narratives about atmospheric behavior and climate change. His research, published in peer-reviewed journals, is based on high-resolution data collected by radiosondes, weather balloons equipped with sensors that take readings every second, providing accurate data about temperature, pressure, wind direction, and water vapor in the atmosphere. His findings reveal shocking discoveries, such as wild temperature oscillations in the tropopause and a sudden increase in the weight of the atmosphere at the boundary layer with water vapor, which contradict previous explanations. Connolly emphasizes the need to reexamine current models and narratives as new and better data emerges.

00:00:00 In this section, Dr. Michael Connolly discusses his new empirical findings regarding the Earth's atmosphere and weather balloons. He explains that weather balloons called radiosondes are released into the Earth's atmosphere from 800 stations around the world at the exact same time every day and record data about temperature, pressure, wind direction, and water vapor in the atmosphere. This data is then collected and stored by organizations like NASA and NOAA. Dr. Connolly's research, which has been published in peer-reviewed journals, is based on analyzing this data, and his findings are unexpected and may require some models to be reconsidered.
00:05:00 In this section, Michael Connolly discusses the advancements made in atmospheric studies using radio songs, which are weather balloons equipped with sensors that take readings every second, providing high-resolution data about temperature, pressure, and more. The accuracy of these radio songs has led to shocking results that challenge current narratives on atmospheric behavior. While there are only a few locations where they are launched once a week, anyone can analyze and download the data. The standard U.S. atmosphere, used for nearly 50 years, is characterized by the troposphere and its decreasing temperatures as altitude increases.
00:10:00 In this section, Michael Connolly discusses the puzzling phenomenon of the tropopause, which is an area of the atmosphere where the temperature stops getting colder and instead stays steady or starts to get warmer. Scientists initially attributed this to ozone absorbing ultraviolet light from the sun and turning it into heat, but the explanation faces a number of problems, including the fact that the most amount of heat occurs in the polar regions during winter when there is no UV light at all. Connolly's investigations using ozone data reveal no evidence for the theoretical notions of ozone circulation models put forward by Dobson and Brewer in the past.
00:15:00 In this section, atmospheric scientist Michael Conolly explains the outdated definition of the tropopause, which was based on poor resolution data from the 1950s and is still used today. This definition is based on sparse readings of temperature, and changes in temperature due to clouds and precipitation were difficult to account for. Conolly emphasizes that new measuring methods using radio songs now allow for more accurate readings of temperature, water content, and ozone content in the atmosphere. These new readings have revealed that the previous definition of the tropopause is inaccurate, and scientists who thought the science was settled are in for a shock.
00:20:00 In this section of the video, scientist Michael Connolly discusses the surprising findings regarding the tropopause, the layer of the Earth's atmosphere that separates the troposphere and the stratosphere. Through high-resolution ozone soundings, researchers have discovered that the temperature at the tropopause undergoes wild oscillations rather than remaining constant as previously thought. These oscillations are a shock and have not been factored into climate models. Additionally, researchers have found that the water vapor content in the atmosphere also dramatically changes at the tropopause and then disappears, contradicting previous explanations that it precipitates out. While Connolly believes there is a reasonable explanation for the discrepancies, it remains to be seen if the scientific community will agree.
00:25:00 In this section, Michael Connolly introduces the concept of molar density, which is derived from the equation of state for ideal gases. The equation of state for ideal gases states that PV (pressure multiplied by volume) is equal to nRT, where n represents the number of moles, and R is known as the universal gas constant. Connolly explains that the atmosphere is a gas that behaves like an ideal gas, and that it only cares about the number of molecules in a volume and not their weight. He goes on to reveal that when comparing the equation of state for an ideal gas and molar density, the latter is more appropriate because the gas behaves according to the number of molecules present and not what their actual mass is. Connolly also discusses the behavior of water in the atmosphere and how it affects the deviation from ideal gas behavior at lower levels.
00:30:00 In this section, Michael Connolly discusses a surprising phenomenon where the weight of the atmosphere appears to have suddenly become heavier in the boundary layer where there's water vapor, causing deviations from the ideal gas law. This universal phenomenon is shown in a graph of molar density plotted for a whole week of radio sonde data from Albany, New York. The shock of this discovery is expected to cause headaches for models and narratives of climate change. Connolly then summarizes a paper his daughter co-authored, which analyzes high-resolution data from stations in Greenland, Colorado, California, Alabama, Hawaii's American Samoa, and the Arctic. The analysis specifically identifies the tropopause and shows the differences in the atmosphere with and without water vapor.
00:35:00 In this section, Michael Connolly discusses experimental data on atmospheric pressure and how it deviates from the expected behavior at the tropopause. He explains how anyone can examine this data and see for themselves that the average molecular weight of the gas suddenly becomes heavier at the tropopause, which is not due to temperature. By examining molar densities, it is possible to track changes in atmospheric behavior as if one were going through a cloud area in an airplane. This demonstrates that the science of atmospheric behavior is not fully settled and still holds surprises and unexpected behavior.
00:40:00 In this section, Michael Connolly explains that the definition for the tropopause varies depending on the region and that until now people thought the temperature was the only determining factor. However, new data shows that the tropopause can be accurately defined by four variables: molar density, temperature, air pressure, and water vapor, and that these variables exhibit the same behavior in different regions. This contradicts the previous explanation that ozone was responsible for temperature changes at the tropopause, and any proposed explanation must explain all four of the observed phenomena.
00:45:00 In this section, Michael Connolly explains that the current narratives being used to interpret climate data are not fit for purpose when better data is becoming available. He emphasizes that as better data comes in, the old stories and explanations people used are not fitting the new data. Connolly shares his findings on the different ways of determining the tropopause, which vary on an hourly or daily basis. He notes that all independent measurements of defining the tropopause are highly correlated, except for uno estimates, which have a correlation of only 0.5 compared to 0.9 for the other methods.
00:50:00 In this section, Michael Connolly explains the concept of correlation and anti-correlation between data sets and how the Tropicals are all highly correlated, challenging assumptions that underlie climate models and our current narrative of the atmosphere. Connolly's peer-reviewed data analysis, which used high-resolution radio songs and analyzed weather balloon data from five representative stations over a five-year period, shows that the current narrative for how atmospheric circulation takes place needs to change to fit the data. As a scientist, Connolly states that people who thought the science was settled are in for a shock and will have to go back to the drawing board to come up with a story that fits all this data.
00:55:00 In this section, Michael Connolly explains the current narrative for climate modelers and weather forecasters, which is that the sun shines down on the tropics and heats up the ground, causing the hot air to rise. As the hot air goes up through the atmosphere and hits the tropopause, it cools down and cannot rise anymore because the troposphere is warmer than it. Therefore, the hot air travels north or south, depending on which hemisphere it is in, and it gets colder until it sinks back down to the bottom. The hot air then starts to travel back again in a cycle. However, this explanation turns out not to be true when examining the weather balloon data, which shows that the air is moving in the opposite direction at ground level, in the tropopause, and going towards the poles in the stratosphere.

01:00:00 - 01:40:00

Michael Connolly's research challenges traditional atmospheric circulation models, showing that the atmosphere acts like a pendulum oscillating back and forth from top to bottom in one direction instead of circular Pharaoh and Hadley cells. He argues that the old models need to be rewritten based on updated scientific beliefs. Connolly also highlights the environmental impact of renewable energy sources such as wind turbines and solar panels, pointing out that they generate biological carbon dioxide due to wind turbulence and increase the respiration rate of ground creatures. He argues that new narratives and solutions are needed to address climate change.

01:00:00 In this section, Michael Connolly explains how the molar density of the atmosphere can be used to calculate the mass flux, or the amount of mass flowing through a square meter at any given spot. He emphasizes the importance of looking at mass flux rather than speed when observing the movement of the atmosphere. He presents data that contradicts the standard narrative of atmospheric circulation and shows that instead of circular cells, the atmosphere acts like a giant pendulum that oscillates back and forth from top to bottom in one direction before turning around and flowing back in the opposite direction.
01:05:00 In this section, Michael Connolly explains that the atmosphere does not behave like the Pharaoh and Hadley cells, as the scientific models of 120 years ago suggest. Instead, the atmosphere acts like a pendulum, going in one direction and coming back again. The data shows that these cells don't exist, and recent studies show that the atmosphere is going in one direction like a pendulum instead of following the old models based on these cells. Connolly suggests mountains could be causing eddies on the far sides of their slopes, creating strange behavior on the lee side. Connolly advises scientists to revisit their data and models.
01:10:00 In this section, Michael Connolly discusses his peer-reviewed paper that challenges traditional atmospheric circulation models. He argues that the models are incorrect and that predictions based on them have a lower accuracy rate than using a simple rule. Connolly posits that the atmosphere acts like a pendulum and if scientists can understand this pendulum effect, then prediction accuracy will increase. He emphasizes that his work is not driven by any agenda and that he is not being paid for it, he just does it for fun and a love of science.
01:15:00 In this section, scientist Michael Connolly discusses his research on the correlation between atmospheric mass and other variables at different altitudes and the implications for climate models based on old circulation models. He shares data from Iceland and shows that all the correlations were positively correlated, not negatively, as predicted in old models. Connolly argues that these findings suggest that old narratives and climate models need to be rewritten and based on science rather than outdated beliefs.
01:20:00 In this section, Michael Connolly discusses a review paper that his team published last year regarding the impact of different types of energy on the environment, including Renewables, coal, oil, nuclear, and water. He explains that renewable energy is only responsible for one or two percent of the energy used in most countries but suggests that if we plan to increase this number to over 50 percent, we must evaluate the environmental impact that will result from this increase. Connolly believes that the side effects of renewable energy ought to be considered just as with other energy sources, such as fracking and oil. He further discusses his involvement in solar energy research since the early 1970s.
01:25:00 In this section, Michael Connolly discusses a peer-reviewed academic paper on climate change that has been downloaded more than 25,000 times, indicating that it is reasonably sound science. He then looks at climate change expenditures and highlights that only five percent of expenditures go toward adaptation measures such as flood prevention, while the rest is spent on solar, wind, and other renewables, with wind and solar taking up more than 55 percent of the total budget. Connolly questions who is benefiting from the half-trillion-dollar expenditure on climate renewables and notes that a significant proportion of the budget is likely going to promoting wind and solar through marketing expenses.
01:30:00 In this section, the speaker questions the reliability of information provided by media outlets, stating that those who have the most money are the ones whose story is heard. They point out that the push for renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels, is largely due to the advertising of these companies that are benefiting financially from such initiatives. The speaker describes the limited effectiveness of these renewable energy sources, providing examples of the intermittency issues associated with wind turbines and the seasonal challenges with solar farms. They urge individuals to analyze the information provided to them and use their own judgment when deciding on renewable energy sources.
01:35:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the problems with relying on solar power at night due to issues with batteries that cannot meet demands. Additionally, the speaker explores the problems with wind turbines, explaining that wind turbines are touted as clean energy as they do not generate carbon dioxide, but they introduce eddies into the air that transfer heat to the ground. As a result, the temperature on the ground increases, especially at night, giving rise to increased metabolic rates of cold-blooded creatures and an increase in carbon dioxide.
01:40:00 In this section, Michael Connolly discusses the impact of wind turbines on the environment. While wind turbines do not generate carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels, they do generate biological carbon dioxide due to the increased respiration rate of ground creatures caused by wind turbulence. Additionally, wind turbines slow down the wind on the lee side, which can increase humidity and lead to more rainfall underneath the turbines and drought farther downwind. Connolly argues that these so-called "clean energies" are not truly clean and that new narratives and solutions are needed for addressing climate change.