Summary of John Parmentola: Estimating the Holocene Warm Period Termination | Tom Nelson Pod #96

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

John Parmentola discusses the Earth's motions and how they affect the climate, specifically the Holocene Warm Period Termination. He explains how Milutin Milanković's theory should be considered a hypothesis and how scientists use the scientific method to validate hypotheses. Parmentola also discusses paleoclimate data and how it can be used to draw general conclusions about the Earth's past climate. He then describes a model he developed to estimate the Holocene Warm Period termination and how he applied it to estimating temperature changes over 800,000 years. Parmentola concludes by discussing the classification of interglacials based on underlying celestial motions and the discrepancies between epigenetic data and benthic data from deep ocean cores.

00:00:00 In this section, John Parmentola introduces his impressive background of working in every sector within the U.S national r d Enterprise. Parmentola has significant experience in science and technology policy, primarily in defense issues, and has worked in different agencies, including the Department of Energy and the US Army. He also talked about his interest in Ice Ages, which led him to learn about Milankovitch cycles, named after Serbian mathematician and astronomer Milutin Milankovitch, who hypothesized that Earth's motions could cause ice ages.
00:05:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses how the Earth's motions and a reduction in sunlight at Northern latitudes can lead to a change in the Earth's Albedo, which reflects more sunlight away from the Earth and causes a temperature descent. He also explains how Milutin Milanković's theory should not be classified as a scientific theory since it has limited predictive value. Instead, it should be considered a hypothesis that requires further evidence to support its claims. Parmentola uses Richard Feynman's scientific method to explain how scientists establish objective truth and acquire new knowledge through testing hypotheses.
00:10:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses the scientific method and how it is used to validate hypothesized conclusions. He explains that once a hypothesis is made, it must be translated into mathematics and predictions must be made. These predictions must then be compared to experimental measurements, and if they are found to be inconsistent, the hypothesis must either be modified or dismissed. Parmentola also discusses how paleoclimate data, specifically the Epica Dome C ice core data from Antarctica, can be used to draw certain general conclusions about the Earth's past climate, though he notes that the data is model dependent and should not be taken as a direct measurement of temperature.
00:15:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses the Holocene Warm Period Termination and the variations that occur within the warm periods of the peaks. These peaks have steep inceptions and terminations and a range of 3,000 to 22,000 years. Furthermore, the gaps between the peaks are the glacial periods that vary in duration, and they are not periodic. Parmentola attributes these features to insulation, which is the distribution of the solar radiation over the Earth's surface that is caused by the Earth's elliptical orbit, the distance away from the Sun, and the motion of the Earth's axes.
00:20:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses the complicated wave of insulation and the variations in amplitude from point to point over 800,000 years. He points out that there are 74 transitions between insulation Minima and maxima at 65 degrees north latitude during June or the summer solstice. He also talks about the temperature trend associated with some insulation transitions and the questions surrounding it. Parmentola then goes back to Earth's celestial motions to explain the first motion, a distance or radial motion in Earth's orbit, defined by eccentricity. Over the last 800,000 years, Earth's eccentricity varied from almost circular to almost a factor of 20 difference. The closest and furthest points from the Sun are called perihelion and apelion, respectively.
00:25:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses the Earth's various motions and cycles that affect the insulation and how they are cyclical but not periodic. He explains that despite their asymmetrical nature, these half cycles are necessary to make a time series comparison between any model and the data. Parmentola also reveals two configurations of the Earth relative to the Sun, the top one shows the current configuration, and the bottom one shows the Earth's configuration approximately 9,000 years ago when the Holocene Warm Period ended.
00:30:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses how the Earth-Sun system was in a different configuration 11,000 years ago and how the summer solstice occurred with the Earth's axis pointing towards the sun, leading to high insulation. He refers to this as a perihelion-to-aphelion transition and explains that during this transition, two things happen: the Earth's axis flips direction, and the Earth's eccentricity changes. He then shows a chart of the procession index, which modulates the eccentricity. The eccentricity is the outer blue curve, while the obliquity oscillates from minimum to maximum with no fixed period.
00:35:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses diagrams that demonstrate the small changes in eccentricity and obliquity over a procession half cycle, pointing out that the changes in obliquity are an order of magnitude smaller than eccentricity. He explains that synchronizations of maximum or minimum obliquity and maximum procession can cause rare configurations in which the intensity of sunlight reaching northern latitudes increases/decreases. Parmentola then shows a diagram that intuitively explains how insulation at northern latitudes changes over a procession half cycle, demonstrating how the Earth's axis will rotate and move closer to the Sun, increasing insulation.
00:40:00 In this section, John Parmentola describes a model he developed to estimate the Holocene Warm Period termination. He calls it the partition model which assumes that the recurrence of prominent features in Paleo climate data are due to synchronizations between the Earth's celestial motions and the Sun's rays. The model approximates mean daily insulation as a product of a precession index contribution and an obliquity contribution, and focuses on the fractional percentage change between successive mean daily insulation extrema. Parmentola explains that obliquity only affects the amplitude of the insulation, while precession changes the insulation by altering the distance between the Sun and Earth.
00:45:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses his calculation of the precision index contribution to the Holocene warm period termination formula. He calculates this between extrema, assuming that the insulation pulls off like 1 over R square. The eccentricity subtracts in one case, and in another it adds, implying that the insulation declines because of perihelion. The correction terms improve upon that estimate, and the obliquity contribution can be well approximated by a simple formula of two times the difference in the angles. This equation is remarkable, yielding a 1% effect, even if the initial and final angles are max 2.4 degrees.
00:50:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses the application of the petition model to estimate temperature changes over 800,000 years. He explains how the model separates the effects of position index waves and obliquity waves, and how they can be analyzed as wave packets. By comparing the wave packets with data from the Epica Dome C, he finds reasonable consistency between the model predictions and the actual data. Parmentola then infers why some interglacials are wider than others, and how the data indicates that the Holocene Warm Period is similar to Marine Isotope State 19c.
00:55:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses the classification of interglacials based on the underlying celestial motions and how they depend on the precision index cycle, the obliquity wave cycle, and their synchronization. He notes that all terminations coincide with a negative trend in insulation due to the decline in the persistent index wave and obliquity wave. However, there is a delay in interglacial inceptions that corresponds to a synchronization of the obliquity Minima and the precision index minimum. Parmentola also highlights a research paper that compares epigenetic data and benthic data from deep ocean cores, which reveals timing discrepancies between the two types of data.

01:00:00 - 01:20:00

John Parmentola discusses his estimation of when the Holocene Warm Period ended based on his model, which he puts at around 500 years ago. He explains the importance of resolving timing issues in data discrepancies related to the termination of the Holocene period. Parmentola notes that the Precision Index plays a more significant role in predicting the recurrence of interglacial inflation periods than obliquity. Understanding the behavior of the polar vortex at northern latitudes is crucial in determining what caused the Holocene Warm Period to end. Parmentola emphasizes the importance of using the scientific method to establish causation and connect measurable factors to convince oneself of their correlation, particularly regarding changes in the earth's climate system.

01:00:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses discrepancies in the data related to timing delays and synchronization of two data sets. He notes that there are discrepancies between the two sets of data from the present to 450,000 years ago, highlighting the importance of resolving timing issues. Parmentola then explains his estimation of the termination of the Holocene warm period and how his model shows that Marine isotope stage 19c, 778,000 years ago, is similar to Marine isotope stage one, the Holocene. The underlying behaviors of the procession, obliquity energy, and eccentricity are similar, and the change in insulation from peak to termination is also similar. However, due to differences in the precession index curve, there is a difference of 1,100 years between the determination of mis-19c and the Holocene.
01:05:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses his estimate of when the Holocene Warm Period (HWP) ended based on his simple model, which he puts at approximately 500 years ago. However, the specifics of what caused the HWP to end are still not well understood, particularly in relation to the behavior of the polar vortex at northern latitudes. Parmentola notes that this region is characterized by a large cyclone and a cold air reservoir, which likely increased over time as insulation decreased during the Holocene. The challenge now is understanding how this region and its behavior couple with insulation to impact the accumulation of snow and ice around the Arctic Circle over the long term.
01:10:00 In this section, John Parmentola explains how the Precision Index plays a more significant role in predicting the recurrence of interglacial inflation periods over the last 800,000 years than obliquity. The Precision Index also has a more significant impact on paleoclimate data, with rising and declining trends following precision index packets. He also predicts that a determination will occur within 500 years, with a gradual accumulation of snow and ice at the northern latitudes and a likely significant drop occurring. However, he emphasizes the importance of the scientific method in establishing causation and connection between factors, citing the need to connect solar cycle data to measurable factors to convince oneself of their correlation.
01:15:00 In this section, John Parmentola discusses the challenges of accurately predicting changes in the earth's climate system and the importance of using the scientific method to derive viable theories. He notes that while some data may suggest correlations between solar radiance changes and Arctic temperatures, such correlations often have significant discrepancies in timing that may be difficult to explain. He cautions against arguments from ignorance and stresses the need for a predictive theory that can be tested and backed by evidence. John acknowledges the difficulty of predicting changes in a highly complex climate system but emphasizes that acquiring knowledge always requires hard work.
01:20:00 In this section, John Parmentola admits that while there may be some validity to the solar cycle affecting the earth's climate, he doesn't know how to connect the cause and effect from a theoretical standpoint. Understanding the earth's climate, particularly in predicting clouds, is extremely difficult and without this understanding, models will have an error which propagates. However, he emphasizes that the effect he's talking about has been acting for 11,000 years and will continue to have an impact on the earth's climate system. The uncertainty and complexity of the earth's climate create a state of uncertainty, and he can only estimate based on his model and monitor trends in snow and ice accumulation to see how the trend is going.